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> Major Hurricane Harvey, 8/25 11AM AST CAT4 50 MPH - 1004mb - Movement: WNW @ 13mph
PoconoSnow
post Aug 14 2017, 10:21 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 14 2017, 09:59 AM) *
Get out of here. RGEM snowmap cant be used here. You're out of your league.


I see some snow on the Rockies right now

Snow in august cool
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Phased Vort
post Aug 14 2017, 10:26 AM
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Folks, these posts are funny alright, but letīs try to not let them get too frequent as they are off-topic, please.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 14 2017, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 14 2017, 11:26 AM) *
Folks, these posts are funny alright, but letīs try to not let them get too frequent as they are off-topic, please.


Since you admitted that they were funny I'll get on topic wink.gif laugh.gif

Sure seems like there's some untapped energy in a Caribbean, but to this point very little has been able to get a movin'. Miami disco does make reference:

As the wave pushes in on Sunday to wrap up the extended period,
this is a good time to remember that we are about to enter the
statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The National
Hurricane Center continues to monitor a tropical wave to the
south/southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and has assigned it a
medium 5-day formation chance of 50 percent. While no
immediate tropical threats are presenting themselves to South
Florida over the next 7 days, this is a good time to check
preparations and plans for your household, your business, and your
community in the event a tropical threat were to emerge later in
the season. Ready.gov and FloridaDisaster.org offer valuable
resources to help you make plans!

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Aug 14 2017, 11:11 AM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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stretchct
post Aug 14 2017, 12:17 PM
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Saharan layer
Attached Image


Nice loop from CIMSS as well, but I can't figure out how to get the image onto this antiquated forum.

Saharan 5 day loop


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Aug 14 2017, 12:19 PM
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WV loop shows recent movement of the dry air.



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Aug 14 2017, 05:50 PM
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UGH - I'm accidentally watching TV National New (ABC) and they just teased that, next, they will talk about spaghetti models tracking tropical storms. rolleyes.gif dry.gif sad.gif

I can only imagine - expecting the worst, hoping for the best (or something close, anyway)

Edit - Oh, OK it was some weak mention of Gert (not sure why they did a tease about spaghetti model tracking)

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 14 2017, 05:53 PM
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Undertakerson
post Aug 14 2017, 05:56 PM
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Honestly - looking at 500mb vort maps, there are so many parcels of energy and I believe the global models are struggling to figure out which one to make dominant. Solutions all over the place

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/index.html
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 15 2017, 11:17 AM
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I'm not sure but it appears as if 91L wants to cruise low lat and scrape the Baja into the pacific. As uncommon as that may be the continental ridging looks to make this a possibility

Wondering if the EAW coming behind it is our swirl/convection to watch

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 15 2017, 11:18 AM
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 15 2017, 11:23 AM
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NHC already hinting at possible formation at low percentage and it's not even off west Africa yet

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 15 2017, 11:34 AM
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 15 2017, 11:29 AM
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8am

QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located more than a thousand
miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at 15
to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the
Caribbean Sea on Friday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat
supportive of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days
but should become less favorable once the system moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A second area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
also producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Conditions appear
conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg


Point three has it at 0/20. Mildly uncommon for a wave that hasn't ejected into the ATL yet.

Both gfs and euro are now focusing on this possible wave to be the one if interest

Long ways out

91l and 90l should still be monitored but I like the chances for this third unamed wave and it does have some support from modeling and NHC

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 15 2017, 12:38 PM
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12z gfs looks as described above

Cmc weakly curls 91l into the coast and develops the subsequent wave strongly but wide right

All solutions still on table but still like the third wave of this bunch as the "tracker"
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 15 2017, 12:44 PM
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12z Euro and Uk to come

I'll do my best to update with some spaghetti too a little later

Back home for vaca so I'll do my best to pitch in smile.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 15 2017, 02:15 PM
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12z euro cruises 91l low and does not amp much at all

The subsequent wave after 91L dies develop but it is a wide right from a hefty shove from a continental ridge
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 15 2017, 02:22 PM
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12z gefs mslp placement pretty much sums it up for now




Globals will struggle with all the parcels and eaw ejecting under the azores HP and into the continental ridging and troughing pattern

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Undertakerson
post Aug 15 2017, 03:07 PM
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Yeah - the models are struggling with 91L and what to do with it. As far back as two days ago, the HMON model showed a hippity hop path for it. Since then, the global models (excluding the POJ Canadian model) have split 91L into two distinct pieces - shearing some energy north and shoving some of it south. The south, cruises the lower Antilles and gets smacked into the ABC islands off N S America - the northern piece gets shredded by the remainder of the Caribbean Islands of DomRep/Haiti and Cuba (to a lesser extent even PR). They then use the still emerging wave energy to make what is the third system develop into a wide right hooker.

It's really interesting to watch the H5 energy (GFS - used 850 view for Euro) split just east of the Antilles and take their respective paths. I have to wonder about that, but given that GFS, Euro and (seemingly) UKIE all make the split, I suppose we'll have to trust that output (for now).
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 15 2017, 03:08 PM
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Nice shot rainbow shot of 91 and 92 and are unnamed wave rolling off Africa



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PoconoSnow
post Aug 15 2017, 03:11 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 15 2017, 04:07 PM) *
Yeah - the models are struggling with 91L and what to do with it. As far back as two days ago, the HMON model showed a hippity hop path for it. Since then, the global models (excluding the POJ Canadian model) have split 91L into two distinct pieces - shearing some energy north and shoving some of it south. The south, cruises the lower Antilles and gets smacked into the ABC islands off N S America - the northern piece gets shredded by the remainder of the Caribbean Islands of DomRep/Haiti and Cuba (to a lesser extent even PR). They then use the still emerging wave energy to make what is the third system develop into a wide right hooker.

It's really interesting to watch the H5 energy (GFS - used 850 view for Euro) split just east of the Antilles and take their respective paths. I have to wonder about that, but given that GFS, Euro and (seemingly) UKIE all make the split, I suppose we'll have to trust that output (for now).



Yea the split is really interesting and I don't remember seeing something like it in any mid to long range modeling last year. It just keeps popping up on modeling though. It almost looks like 91 and 92 are already separated. All very interesting and chaotic

There will be a breaking point I assume where either all models sway one way or another. It's just not right now

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Undertakerson
post Aug 15 2017, 03:12 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 15 2017, 04:07 PM) *
Yeah - the models are struggling with 91L and what to do with it. As far back as two days ago, the HMON model showed a hippity hop path for it. Since then, the global models (excluding the POJ Canadian model) have split 91L into two distinct pieces - shearing some energy north and shoving some of it south. The south, cruises the lower Antilles and gets smacked into the ABC islands off N S America - the northern piece gets shredded by the remainder of the Caribbean Islands of DomRep/Haiti and Cuba (to a lesser extent even PR). They then use the still emerging wave energy to make what is the third system develop into a wide right hooker.

It's really interesting to watch the H5 energy (GFS - used 850 view for Euro) split just east of the Antilles and take their respective paths. I have to wonder about that, but given that GFS, Euro and (seemingly) UKIE all make the split, I suppose we'll have to trust that output (for now).

Edit - or is that 91L getting shoved south and 92L allowed to go north and shred on the islands?

Yeah, I think that's it. 91L gets moved south and 92L gets shoved north - both dissipating within the basin (91L potentially remerging into something in the Pac)

Oy - I think I gave myself a headache trying to follow all the "spins". laugh.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 15 2017, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 15 2017, 04:12 PM) *
Edit - or is that 91L getting shoved south and 92L allowed to go north and shred on the islands?

Yeah, I think that's it. 91L gets moved south and 92L gets shoved north - both dissipating within the basin (91L potentially remerging into something in the Pac)

Oy - I think I gave myself a headache trying to follow all the "spins". laugh.gif


Yea I've had to look at modeling a few times today along with sat shots trying to figure which way to lean and what in the heck I'm seeeing

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Undertakerson
post Aug 15 2017, 03:18 PM
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Caveman art time again,

Trying to illustrate (however poorly) what I'm talking about. Starting back to initial conditions as seen by the GFS - blue is what I believe to be 91L, Red = 92L, Green the emerging wave.

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