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> Potential Tropical Cyclone 10, Tropical Formation SR High 90% LR High 90%
Ron in Miami
post Aug 15 2017, 09:16 AM
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92L one to watch...

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Aug 17 2017, 07:54 PM
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MaineJay
post Aug 15 2017, 05:22 PM
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Figure this could go in both.

15.0z

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Ron in Miami
post Aug 15 2017, 06:13 PM
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Just to clear up the confusion with some on which invest is which. According to ATCF 91L is the furthest west, followed by 92L. And African wave will be 93L soon.

AL, 92, 2017081518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 314W, 20, 1012, LO,
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Undertakerson
post Aug 17 2017, 04:30 AM
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No traffic on this thread the past couple of days - yet 92L starting to emerge as the lone "threat" to US.

More than a couple ensemble members shoot it though the Atlantic Straits and either right over S Fl, or hooking the west flank of FL (one member has eyes on Mobile, AL)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html

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MaineJay
post Aug 17 2017, 04:42 AM
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GFS ensembles
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UKmet
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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Undertakerson
post Aug 17 2017, 04:50 AM
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I believe that is 92 in the lower right hand corner of the Professor's chalkboard


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conifer1
post Aug 17 2017, 05:00 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 17 2017, 04:50 AM) *
I believe that is 92 in the lower right hand corner of the Professor's chalkboard


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What are the chances this one ends up in the Gulf? I believe it was the Canadian depicting that solution. Have a trip planned last of the month to Mobile unsure.gif


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MaineJay
post Aug 17 2017, 05:04 AM
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There is a fairly significant amount of dry air impinging on the northern flanks. It's also somewhat being reinforced by the ULL to the north. 92L will need to fight this off to develop.

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"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Aug 17 2017, 05:19 AM
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Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTCSWA)
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Indicating several vortices, but not under the best convection. Almost looks like the convection is "out running" the circulation.

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A more robust system would maintain better overnight convection, but let's see what today brings.


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Undertakerson
post Aug 17 2017, 05:59 AM
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FSU site view of 92 track - UKM
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MaineJay
post Aug 17 2017, 06:39 AM
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17.0z ECMWF ensembles

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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Weathertop
post Aug 17 2017, 06:57 AM
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Yesterday's 6z GEFS

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Today's 6z GEFS

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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 17 2017, 08:00 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 17 2017, 06:59 AM) *
FSU site view of 92 track - UKM
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Open for business. Follow them there warm waters.


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PoconoSnow
post Aug 17 2017, 08:39 AM
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Today's vis



Saw this a lot last year where the best convection seems to run out front of the circulation


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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 17 2017, 09:13 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Aug 17 2017, 09:39 AM) *
Today's vis


Saw this a lot last year where the best convection seems to run out front of the circulation


Northwest side is always brutal. She's beautiful and appears to be taking control of the area. Taking everyone's lunch money on her way.

92L may be a legitimate tropical threat, and needs monitoring.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Aug 17 2017, 09:13 AM


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Blue Ridge Bouncer

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 17 2017, 09:48 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 17 2017, 10:13 AM) *
Northwest side is always brutal. She's beautiful and appears to be taking control of the area. Taking everyone's lunch money on her way.

92L may be a legitimate tropical threat, and needs monitoring.



It really does seem like 92 has a chance

Lot of b-lines towards fla or into gom on spaghetti and some ops


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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 17 2017, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Aug 17 2017, 10:48 AM) *
It really does seem like 92 has a chance

Lot of b-lines towards fla or into gom on spaghetti and some ops


Well if you ask me, and most people do laugh.gif, shes the bully down there. I'll bet tomorrow the images of her will be stronger and her compatriots will be weaker.


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stretchct
post Aug 17 2017, 01:09 PM
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FWIW - CMC



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Phased Vort
post Aug 17 2017, 03:42 PM
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The issue is that the ECMWF does not develop 91L as of yet. But it does take the wave all the way to south Florida.

Without ECMWF support for a developed tropical cyclone, the chances are smaller.

Letīs see what future runs will show.


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MaineJay
post Aug 17 2017, 03:50 PM
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That ULL is hammering this with dry air.

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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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