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> Potential Tropical Cyclone 10, Tropical Formation SR High 90% LR High 90%
Ron in Miami
post Aug 17 2017, 06:57 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Aug 17 2017, 04:50 PM) *
That ULL is hammering this with dry air.


The ULL over Cuba is moving out to the West at a good clip, while the ULL to the North of 92L is pretty much stationary. Once 92L gets past 60W if there's anything left conditions should be better by then.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 17 2017, 06:57 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Aug 17 2017, 04:50 PM) *
That ULL is hammering this with dry air.

[attachment=327459:ezgif_3_3d77133eb4.gif]


Do you receive a commission from the producers of dry air each time you mention it? Able to work it in during tropical season? Impressive salesmanship. You da man MJ.

I'll be quite interested to see progress or lack thereof of miss 92L this evening. Well she if convection consolidates, also if any relationship shows itself between her and other energies.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 18 2017, 03:50 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 17 2017, 12:11 PM) *
Well if you ask me, and most people do laugh.gif, shes the bully down there. I'll bet tomorrow the images of her will be stronger and her compatriots will be weaker.

Well, you convinced the Canadian model to show as much. But the others are naysayers.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 18 2017, 03:54 AM
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And the Professor - only makes 92L a player (a weak version of a player, but more reflection on it than Harvey in any event)

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Undertakerson
post Aug 18 2017, 06:54 AM
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00z Prof - CPE site view

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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 18 2017, 09:53 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 18 2017, 04:50 AM) *
Well, you convinced the Canadian model to show as much. But the others are naysayers.


That immediately eradicates any possible credibility I may have once enjoyed. laugh.gif


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Undertakerson
post Aug 18 2017, 12:07 PM
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Interesting - the Professor and the CMC both stall 92L, or whatever is left of it by then, over the Bahamas. Of course the UK shows it as a hovering area of around 1005mb and the CMC makes it one step shy of annihilation. aking a path just off the East Coast at a deepening 970mb storm that eventually makes landfall at Cape Cod. (yes, the one in MA) rolleyes.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 18 2017, 12:23 PM
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18.12z cmc with one of those wacky runs




Then a slaughterhouse job from 92l





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PoconoSnow
post Aug 18 2017, 12:46 PM
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Nothing too much on 12z nator

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SnowMan11
post Aug 19 2017, 08:59 AM
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CMC still shows a big hit for the east coast

Chances down to 40% in latest NHC discussion for 92L.


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rtcemc
post Aug 19 2017, 09:21 AM
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Mentioned this on another thread guys, the last thing many of us need is a tropical system barreling up the east coast. Grounds are totally saturated. Seems like destiny that this one will hit, and If not this one, then probably one shortly after. Just like winter where it snows where it wants to snow(just ask MJ), almost every potential wet event develops, and develops to its full potential. Can't recall seeing a sustained pattern of big T & L storms like this in decades, at least where I live. The rough on golf courses started out high in April and has stayed that way, even getting higher and thicker. Usually dries out by July. Where is my big old Bermuda High to act as a goalie and stop this thing??
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SnowMan11
post Aug 19 2017, 11:46 AM
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GFS now develops a low but stays way offshore

CMC still shows a big storm near the coast but on this run, it's near the benchmark

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...0&ypos=1115


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Undertakerson
post Aug 19 2017, 12:00 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 19 2017, 12:46 PM) *
GFS now develops a low but stays way offshore

CMC still shows a big storm near the coast but on this run, it's near the benchmark

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...0&ypos=1115

UKIE is similar in track to GFS, a weak system near the Carolinas, then wide right (CMC = preposterous)

clearly though, on the UKIE, you can see an almost grab/influence from the continental trough.

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Then there's the whole timing thing. If you trace the H5 energy of the GFS, it does not appear to make a storm from the main 92L energy, rather it uses a "dropped off" piece and allows it to redevelop just off the Miami coast.

On 6z, GFS used a piece of Harvey's vorticity - now on the 12z it uses 92L orphaned energy - both to accomplish a storm of some variety. Until the GFS sorts out what it wants to do with which piece of the mass fields, this is all pretty much still a guess. (except the CMC is still garbage. tongue.gif
)

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 19 2017, 12:06 PM
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Undertakerson
post Aug 19 2017, 05:44 PM
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Professor thinks bombing possible once it hits Bahamas, but then just misses the trough.

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GFS at 18z almost does the same thing, but trough is even more progressive than UKM - still puts a 983mb storm well E of MidAt
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SnowMan11
post Aug 20 2017, 08:39 AM
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CMC still has 92L becoming strong

GFS and Euro are catching on

Will the CMC lead the pack?


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jdrenken
post Aug 20 2017, 12:50 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 20 2017, 08:39 AM) *
CMC still has 92L becoming strong

GFS and Euro are catching on

Will the CMC lead the pack?


Keep that CMC=gospel in the Facebook groups that you are a member of! You know darn well that the Canadian turns every tropical storm it can into a CAT5. Honestly Anthony...you know better than to make post like this.


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shane o mac
post Aug 20 2017, 01:09 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 20 2017, 02:50 PM) *
Keep that CMC=gospel in the Facebook groups that you are a member of! You know darn well that the Canadian turns every tropical storm it can into a CAT5. Honestly Anthony...you know better than to make post like this.

Lol its called CMC for a reason (Constantly Making Cyclones) !
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jdrenken
post Aug 20 2017, 01:22 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Aug 20 2017, 01:09 PM) *
Lol its called CMC for a reason (Constantly Making Cyclones) !


What's funny is that a name that I haven't heard of for years, Dave Paterno, posted a warning to everyone on his FB Weather Page using the Canadian as his reasoning. I can still remember when he would flood Henry's Accuweather FB page with his junk and we had to ban him.
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shane o mac
post Aug 20 2017, 01:26 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 20 2017, 03:22 PM) *
What's funny is that a name that I haven't heard of for years, Dave Paterno, posted a warning to everyone on his FB Weather Page using the Canadian as his reasoning. I can still remember when he would flood Henry's Accuweather FB page with his junk and we had to ban him.

God must be hungry for likes >? huh.gif Either way unnecessary warning with only one model showing and its the CMC at that lol

I think there will be a system but where does it track all depends on the trof moving , and how strong that Bermuda high is . going to be interesting .. but no i dont think the CMC is right by any means way to strong .
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Undertakerson
post Aug 20 2017, 03:01 PM
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unsure.gif

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 20 2017, 05:26 PM
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