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> Major Hurricane Irma, 9/10 7PM EDT CAT 2 - 110 MPH - 940mb - Movement: N @ 14mph
Ron in Miami
post Aug 28 2017, 07:32 AM
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AL, 93, 2017082718, , BEST, 0, 119N, 184W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS023, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
AL, 93, 2017082800, , BEST, 0, 120N, 190W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS023, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
AL, 93, 2017082806, , BEST, 0, 120N, 195W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, al712017 to al932017,

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Sep 3 2017, 06:32 AM
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 28 2017, 07:40 AM
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This one could be interesting, ensembles don't know what to make of it yet and has a big spread O_o 0z & 6z both had members take it into the gulf through the FL straights. So no consensus early on.


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risingriver
post Aug 28 2017, 08:28 AM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Aug 28 2017, 08:40 AM) *
This one could be interesting, ensembles don't know what to make of it yet and has a big spread O_o 0z & 6z both had members take it into the gulf through the FL straights. So no consensus early on.


Too bad Harvey won't wind down so we can concentrate on one storm at a time.

Definitely an invest to keep an eye on here. Two weeks of tracking it across the bonney blue ocean.
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Undertakerson
post Aug 28 2017, 05:03 PM
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Been mentioning this for a while now, in the Eastern Atl Thread. Definitely interesting in an unwelcome kind of way.
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MaineJay
post Aug 28 2017, 05:43 PM
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Operational models. Crazy consistency.
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GFS ensembles
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The "low trajectory" I find concerning


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Sam In MD
post Aug 28 2017, 06:57 PM
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Scary - no dry air or shear in front of it. Looks like a juggernaut.
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MaineJay
post Aug 28 2017, 09:50 PM
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QUOTE(Sam In MD @ Aug 28 2017, 07:57 PM) *
Scary - no dry air or shear in front of it. Looks like a juggernaut.



Loaded with moisture.
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--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 03:23 AM
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Phased Vort
post Aug 29 2017, 07:48 AM
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I posted this on August 27th in the Eastern Atlantic tropical development thread:

QUOTE
I like this threat.

Looks pretty solid to pose risk to the east coast.

Robust and enduring African wave, powerful Atlantic ridge over the eastern and central Atlantic, departing trough over the eastern CONUS with building in high pressure and western Atlantic ridge, not a lot of upper level lows to sour the currents, and consequently, not produce strong shear.

Then thereīs the warm SSTs good moisture content in the atmosphere holding back deep dry air.


Given the look I did on the models, and these points above, I will say I expect this one to be a major hurricane, I would not be surprised if this one becomes a CAT4 as well.

Letīs see how this one turns out.


I continue to think this way.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 08:47 AM
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Euro was sniffing this wave for quite sometime

And rapidly deepening it too

position and size of the azores high are favorable for a lower trajectory, possibly keeping it clean from mid latitude influence

Could be a big horn ram or an arrow through the straights

I see 0z euro didn't sway


And Eps still has that high pressure in line for the battering ram to swing.



I imagine our man Ron has a close eye on this un'

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 10:11 AM
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Blooming over Cabo Verde

Believe they actually had their first TS conditions from an early developer last year

Nhc 8am

QUOTE
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located just offshore of the middle Texas coast.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Ten, located just offshore of the North Carolina
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area near
the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days over the
eastern Atlantic.
The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the
next several days. Heavy rain is possible over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Blake




Them some high %. 70/90

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 10:46 AM
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It has a narrow path of lower shear for the early going



Divergence and convergence look to be organizing. the 850 vort map depicts some lower level motion

Guessing This indeed will develop pretty fast

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 11:31 AM
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Gfs op has a robust azores HP which in turn causes 93L to stay further S. by hr180 it's losing juice



Since 06z had this curling wide right it wouldn't surprise me if the gfs just haven't a clue on the players at hand

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 11:33 AM
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Cmc won't ever let you down though lol



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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 12:33 PM
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Gefs cluster is tighter at 12 but mostly wide right some south but sub 1000mb



Doesn't match op, many cycles to go

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 01:11 PM
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12z euro still amping this early
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phillyfan
post Aug 29 2017, 01:56 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Aug 29 2017, 02:11 PM) *
12z euro still amping this early

Hour 240 frame and with High pressure out over the Atlantic.....


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Aug 29 2017, 02:56 PM) *
Hour 240 frame and with High pressure out over the Atlantic.....

And a continental trough that will be a major player as to whether it "picks it up" or "boots it out"

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 03:31 PM
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Eps at hr 240 showing a lp reflection just North of Hispaniola



I'm sure MJ will post the Eps tracks

But the reflection at D10 lead with the ATL HP nosing down is enough of a brow raiser for me

Depth speed timing if Mid lat influence still a wildcard

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 03:37 PM
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2pm raised to 80/90
QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located just offshore of the middle Texas coast.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Ten, located near the Outer Banks of North
Carolina.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

1. A low pressure area located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands has
become better defined since yesterday. Any significant increase in
the associated thunderstorm activity would result in the formation
of a tropical depression within the next day or two. The low is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. Heavy rain is
possible over portions of the northwestern Cabo Verde Islands
through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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