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> Major Hurricane Irma, 9/10 7PM EDT CAT 2 - 110 MPH - 940mb - Movement: N @ 14mph
Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 03:42 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Aug 29 2017, 04:37 PM) *
2pm raised to 80/90

One thing that some need to stay mindful of with those projections - they only go out 5 days. the storm would still be Near PR at best.

I mention this because some where baffled when the 91L storm was, at first, given high chances to develop only to be trimmed back in later issuance (eventually to be declared "dissipate" by NHC - which is why I feel Harvey should have actually been named Irma, not a revival of Harvey - he's not the Undertaker ya know)

So we could see the 5 day odds reduce for a bit during that time period (D5-7)
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MaineJay
post Aug 29 2017, 03:47 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Aug 29 2017, 04:31 PM) *
Eps at hr 240 showing a lp reflection just North of Hispaniola



I'm sure MJ will post the Eps tracks

But the reflection at D10 lead with the ATL HP nosing down is enough of a brow raiser for me

Depth speed timing if Mid lat influence still a wildcard



Took a while for the 0z to update today, but at least it did, some days you get nada.

ECMWF members
29.0z
Attached Image


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 03:47 PM
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My lord though - 950mn on the Euro? Even after the islands?? blink.gif blink.gif

Worse yet, amateur extrapolation (always dangerous) would make me think that the Carolinas have much to sweat about such a look.

Edit - and my nephew just moved from Fl panhandle to Charleston sad.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 29 2017, 03:48 PM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 29 2017, 03:51 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 29 2017, 04:47 PM) *
My lord though - 950mn on the Euro? Even after the islands?? blink.gif blink.gif

Worse yet, amateur extrapolation (always dangerous) would make me think that the Carolinas have much to sweat about such a look.


Gonna be a long week of following but surely have to watch our upper air pattern over the northern U.S. over the next week.

I am surprised at how long that ridging pattern has held thus far out west going to be taking a look at the upper air pattern throughout the week to keep an eye on all this.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 03:56 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Aug 29 2017, 04:51 PM) *
Gonna be a long week of following but surely have to watch our upper air pattern over the northern U.S. over the next week.

I am surprised at how long that ridging pattern has held thus far out west going to be taking a look at the upper air pattern throughout the week to keep an eye on all this.

Yep

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...a/pna.sprd2.gif
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risingriver
post Aug 29 2017, 04:07 PM
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Water vapor image has the look of an over acheiver. Tremendous amount of spin for that location.

It'll be nice for the rooster shift to have something to crow about all week long as it traverses the Atlantic. laugh.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 04:11 PM
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From the 2pm tropic disco

QUOTE
tropical wave is over the E Atlantic associated with a 1010 mb
low that is located near 15N24W. The wave axis extends from
20N25W to the low to 06N22W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 14N to
17N between 23W and 26W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
was noted within 240 NM in the NW semicircle of the low. A recent
scatterometer pass indicated 20-25 KT winds within 180 Nm in the
N semicircle of the low. The wave is embedded in an area of deep
layer moisture as seen on TPW satellite imagery.
This system has
become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression
could form from this system over the eastern Atlantic during the
next couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
possible in portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
There is now a high chance for this system to become a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.


The last sentence is telling.

Imho this will blow by a Depression categorization. This got some moxy

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 29 2017, 04:11 PM
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MaineJay
post Aug 29 2017, 04:46 PM
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6 hour loop

Attached Image


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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SnowMan11
post Aug 29 2017, 05:34 PM
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I spoke too soon

GFS has trended towards the CMC and Euro

Here is 210

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...2918&fh=186


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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 05:39 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 29 2017, 06:34 PM) *
I spoke too soon

GFS has trended towards the CMC and Euro

Here is 210

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...2918&fh=186

Uh oh - it missed the trough this run.

(edit) weak version still.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 29 2017, 05:42 PM
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SnowMan11
post Aug 29 2017, 05:44 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 29 2017, 06:39 PM) *
Uh oh - it missed the trough this run.

(edit) weak version still.


Check out 240

Gaining strength

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...2918&fh=234
ohmy.gif


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Phased Vort
post Aug 29 2017, 05:49 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 29 2017, 05:39 PM) *
Uh oh - it missed the trough this run.

(edit) weak version still.



Yes it did.

That will take it straight to southern Florida and possibly into the GOMEX.



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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Aug 29 2017, 05:50 PM
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The Florida Keys get rocked big time.

Itīs go MEX bound.

Reminds me of Hurricane IKE.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 05:50 PM
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Uh oh
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Phased Vort
post Aug 29 2017, 05:52 PM
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18Z GFS hour 300:

Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 05:53 PM
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Still a bit out in "fantasy range" but its catching the general idea for sure.
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SnowMan11
post Aug 29 2017, 05:55 PM
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93L is a major hurricane for Florida on the GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...0&ypos=1001


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Phased Vort
post Aug 29 2017, 05:56 PM
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This run went all the way to the eastern GOMEX.

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 05:58 PM
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18z gfs with that arrow through the fla straights

This should be a fun week


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Phased Vort
post Aug 29 2017, 06:07 PM
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12Z UKMET:

Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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