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> Major Hurricane Irma, 9/10 7PM EDT CAT 2 - 110 MPH - 940mb - Movement: N @ 14mph
SnowMan11
post Aug 29 2017, 06:12 PM
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Every model now develops a major hurricane

This is going to be very interesting to track


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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 29 2017, 06:24 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 29 2017, 07:12 PM) *
Every model now develops a major hurricane

This is going to be very interesting to track

GFS is being very inconsistent, so it's misleading to say every model sees it.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 29 2017, 06:24 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90ー: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 06:26 PM
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MaineJay
post Aug 29 2017, 06:35 PM
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Here's the operational tracks

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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 06:50 PM
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Does he recurve, or no? If so, another EC trough at about the D7-10 time period. That could be the one being modeled to "flirt" with this tropical system potential

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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 06:56 PM
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18z gefs took a huge step




Even the mean tracks similar to 18z op


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Undertakerson
post Aug 29 2017, 07:03 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Aug 29 2017, 07:56 PM) *
18z gefs took a huge step


Even the mean tracks similar to 18z op

I just got taken to task, on my own Fb weather page, for even mentioning the models in regards to the W GOM storm. Hate to see what would happen if I posted the 18z run rolleyes.gif laugh.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 07:44 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 29 2017, 08:03 PM) *
I just got taken to task, on my own Fb weather page, for even mentioning the models in regards to the W GOM storm. Hate to see what would happen if I posted the 18z run rolleyes.gif laugh.gif


It's a lot for most to digest let alone fathom what we could have going on here



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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 07:50 PM
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This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 29 2017, 07:51 PM


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Ron in Miami
post Aug 29 2017, 08:38 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 29 2017, 08:03 PM) *
I just got taken to task, on my own Fb weather page, for even mentioning the models in regards to the W GOM storm. Hate to see what would happen if I posted the 18z run rolleyes.gif laugh.gif


You mean the Andrew 2.0 18z run? I just saw it, that was stronger then cuban coffee!! O_o Was going NW through the bahamas and then hard left under FL. Bit further south then Andrew, but was out there still. Long time to watch and wait.
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 29 2017, 09:01 PM
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I'll drop this little nugget then off to bed, 18z Ensembles had a member showing a 930mb hurricane curving up towards the FL panhandle in the gulf O_o


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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 10:43 PM
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93l just coming into frame



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 29 2017, 10:43 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 11:25 PM
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0z gfs comin in hot



The mid lat trof looks like an ull now, so I'd imagine little influence to our storm this run as it's further north and stacked

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Aug 29 2017, 11:26 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 29 2017, 11:31 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Aug 30 2017, 12:25 AM) *
0z gfs comin in hot



The mid lat trof looks like an ull now, so I'd imagine little influence to our storm this run as it's further north and stacked

Yeah I've been analyzing this run like it's a tornado outbreak or blizzard, comparing frames to the past 2 runs (18z being Andrew-like, 12z being nothing). GFS has definitely trended toward a more promising TC through hour 186. May be jumping the shark, but maybe GFS is finally trending toward Euro. Seems that's been the standard lately.

Looking nasty at hour 204. Down to 975mb near Puerto Rico.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 29 2017, 11:32 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90ー: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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East Dubzz
post Aug 29 2017, 11:34 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 30 2017, 12:31 AM) *
Yeah I've been analyzing this run like it's a tornado outbreak or blizzard, comparing frames to the past 2 runs (18z being Andrew-like, 12z being nothing). GFS has definitely trended toward a more promising TC through hour 186. May be jumping the shark, but maybe GFS is finally trending toward Euro. Seems that's been the standard lately.

Looking nasty at hour 204. Down to 975mb near Puerto Rico.


Glad I'm not the only one laugh.gif
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phillyfan
post Aug 29 2017, 11:35 PM
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Only a little different then 18z......


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Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 15 / Heat Waves: 3
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shane o mac
post Aug 29 2017, 11:36 PM
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Well at least im not the only one who is still up model watching . looks interesting setup coming up .
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Phased Vort
post Aug 29 2017, 11:37 PM
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This GFS run looks like another threatening run.

The setup looks worrisome, as it did on the ECMWF.

The deepening on this run from frame 210 to 222 is impressive.


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PoconoSnow
post Aug 29 2017, 11:37 PM
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Glad there's other tracking sickos out there lol



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shane o mac
post Aug 29 2017, 11:40 PM
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Holy *bleep* what a bomb .. looks like ULL is more pronounced this run ,also might feel the weakness in Bermuda ridge ? interesting ..
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