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> Hurricane Jose, 9/17 5PM EDT CAT 1 - 90 MPH - 967mb - Movement: N @ 9mph
Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 11:04 PM
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 13 2017, 10:56 PM) *
gfs significantly stronger this run (950 vs 978) , further west but looks like it's heading ots...



The mean track seems to be north, as at first on some frames it was going NNE and on the last ones it looks NNW.

If nothing changes, this run may bring Jose right to the coast.


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Qdeathstar
post Sep 13 2017, 11:06 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 14 2017, 12:04 AM) *
The mean track seems to be north, as at first on some frames it was going NNE and on the last ones it looks NNW.

If nothing changes, this run may bring Jose right to the coast.


i was trying to read the z500 maps, the high pressure to the east fades away and here doesn't seem to be anything pulling it in on the west side.



gem way way west and south of its 12z, looks a bit like this run gfs

This post has been edited by Qdeathstar: Sep 13 2017, 11:11 PM


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Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 11:10 PM
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Stronger and more west. West has been the trend...if it keeps up, there could be some worried people in NJ laugh.gif


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Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5")
Total: 2"

NJ -
Total: 0"
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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 11:12 PM
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 13 2017, 11:06 PM) *
i was trying to read the z500 maps, the high pressure to the east fades away and here doesn't seem to be anything pulling it in on the west side.



I get you.

On this parameter, we can see a pretty decent blocking high heights to the north extending to the northeast.

We will see if it will be enough to keep Jose pinned to the coast or even go to the NW.

Attached Image


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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 11:16 PM
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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Sep 13 2017, 11:10 PM) *
Stronger and more west. West has been the trend...if it keeps up, there could be some worried people in NJ laugh.gif



This look like it will go out to sea at the last moment.

Comes pretty close to Long Island and Cape Code.


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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 11:20 PM
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Pretty impressive looking I must say



--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5")
Total: 2"

NJ -
Total: 0"
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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 11:24 PM
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And the drunk uncle says don't forget about me





--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5")
Total: 2"

NJ -
Total: 0"
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njwx7
post Sep 13 2017, 11:25 PM
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00z CMC

(Click)

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njwx7
post Sep 13 2017, 11:48 PM
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00z Ukie keeping it interesting

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TC1
post Sep 14 2017, 12:06 AM
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A different image for the Professor...


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Its_Miller_A_Tim...
post Sep 14 2017, 02:13 AM
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0z Euro is a graze to Eastern LI/Mass, but no turn back into the coast. Wouldn't be much to worry about here other than some rain and wind for the densely populated areas.
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TC1
post Sep 14 2017, 02:24 AM
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The Euro 0z in animated form...

(click)
Attached Image



The Euro, the Professor and the GFS all have a pretty similar path. Even the CMC and NAVGEM are reasonably similar. There are differences obviously (some hit LI/MASS, some hit nothing, strength, etc.), but it'll interesting to see what the next runs will bring at 12z from all of them. Will they be similarly aligned a second time with the off-shore/OTS path for Jose? Will they all change their tunes?

Find out on the next episode of, As The Atlantic Churns.

This post has been edited by TC1: Sep 14 2017, 03:21 AM
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MaineJay
post Sep 14 2017, 04:16 AM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Sep 13 2017, 09:19 PM) *
Someone correct me if I'm wrong...but pretty sure it can be summarized in on word: Ensembles. Ensembles are great, but their lower resolution can have difficulties with more complex interactions.



I'm certainly not disagreeing, ensembles see lower resolution, but they can give a sense of the range of possibilities. It's interesting because the models that are built for hurricanes, seen the most useless. So I kinda look at everything as one all encompassing ensemble, then look for "themes".

UKmet strike probabilities
Attached Image


ECMWF probabilities
Attached Image

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?s...;dtg=2017090900


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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MaineJay
post Sep 14 2017, 04:21 AM
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QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 14 2017, 03:24 AM) *
The Euro 0z in animated form...



The Euro, the Professor and the GFS all have a pretty similar path. Even the CMC and NAVGEM are reasonably similar. There are differences obviously (some hit LI/MASS, some hit nothing, strength, etc.), but it'll interesting to see what the next runs will bring at 12z from all of them. Will they be similarly aligned a second time with the off-shore/OTS path for Jose? Will they all change their tunes?

Find out on the next episode of, As The Atlantic Churns.



To close for comfort. Especially for a week out.
Attached Image



GYX kinda contradicts the NWS eastern region tweet I saw posted.
QUOTE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The two branches of the jet stream- the subtropical and polar-
will consolidate over the desert SW by Friday night. Strong SW
flow will generally be centered across the northern Plains and
into southeastern Canada. A strong short wave impulse will become
negatively tilted as it ejects ENE late in the weekend, serving
to slightly flatten the top of ridging over New England. The
northern stream ridge will build a bit more as the short wave
moves into northern Canada. By mid week, the impacts of Jose may
be impacting the eastern seaboard...but currently confidence in
any one scenario is low.
Late in the week sharp ridging will
dominate the eastern CONUS as Jose moves farther out to sea
.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


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MaineJay
post Sep 14 2017, 04:43 AM
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He's trying to get out of that shear.

Attached Image


https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...OD=1degreeticks

Attached Image

NHC
QUOTE
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

Earlier this morning, Jose began to take on a sheared appearance in
conventional and microwave imagery, though the outflow has since
been restored. A 0356 UTC GPM overpass showed that the mid-level
center was displaced to the south of the low-level center.
Objective and subjective Final-T numbers have fallen, and on that
basis, the initial intensity has been decreased slightly to 65 kt.

I expect little change in strength through the forecast period.
Moderate shear should prevent significant intensification for the
next couple of days, and could cause Jose to weaken to a Tropical
Storm. After that time, Jose may begin transitioning to a more
baroclinicly-driven cyclone. In fact, the GFS shows Jose with some
extratropical characteristics by day 5. The dynamical models all
indicate that Jose could regain some strength during this period, so
the new NHC forecast reflects that.

The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 270/ 3 kt.
Although the reasoning behind the track forecast has not changed,
there has been a large shift to the west in the guidance since the
last forecast. A mid-level ridge, now forecast to be a little
stronger than previously expected, should cause Jose to turn
toward the northwest, and eventually the north. Since the
guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west
of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope. I would prefer to see more run to run
consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time.


Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough
surf and rip current conditions.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/140837.shtml


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MaineJay
post Sep 14 2017, 04:46 AM
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BOX
QUOTE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Mainly dry/seasonable this weekend other than a spot shower Sat

* Jose brings high surf/dangerous rip currents later this weekend
into next week. Still uncertain if it gets close enough for any
other impacts

14/00Z guidance suite has come into better agreement through
Saturday, but still exhibit significant spread in track and timing
beyond Saturday. Still have little confidence in a single
deterministic outcome for Jose. Will continue to favor an ensemble
approach for this portion of the forecast. Still thinking it will be
a few more days before we can have much confidence in details about
as track and timing of Jose.
Just about all of the 14/00Z
deterministic runs are outliers when compared to their corresponding
ensemble means, although the ECMWF looks to be closest to its
ensemble mean.


As of this writing, the most likely outcome is for Jose to slowly
drift north and weaken due to the colder sea surface temperatures,
then shift NE well offshore of New England. However, this is not a
guarantee
. Can see a few scenarios where Jose could make a closer
approach to southern New England. A closer approach would mean more
wind and rain impacts. Will definitely see a prolonged period of
elevated risk for dangerous rip currents along exposed south-facing
beaches into early next week.

Otherwise, this portion of the forecast looks mainly dry. Some risk
for a few showers at times, greatest towards the period from Monday
night through Tuesday night. Near normal temperatures this weekend.
Below normal highs expected early next week.


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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TC1
post Sep 14 2017, 05:03 AM
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Once again I say, the cone is unfortunately shifting closer to the coast, bit by bit sad.gif

Attached Image


Not only that, but now it weakens to a tropical storm and then becomes a hurricane again. They had the opposite before.

This post has been edited by TC1: Sep 14 2017, 05:05 AM
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My2Sons
post Sep 14 2017, 05:12 AM
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QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 14 2017, 01:06 AM) *
A different image for the Professor...


Attached Image


UKIE will definitely be given a failing grade for this storm .. its track changes over the last two days are almost unprecedented (a mere 1400 mile shift).
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MaineJay
post Sep 14 2017, 05:14 AM
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Two questions, where does Jose wander?

What kind of energy gets shot out of the base of the western trof(s)?

I guess there's 3, how do they interact?

Attached Image


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MaineJay
post Sep 14 2017, 05:30 AM
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QUOTE(My2Sons @ Sep 14 2017, 06:12 AM) *
UKIE will definitely be given a failing grade for this storm .. its track changes over the last two days are almost unprecedented (a mere 1400 mile shift).



The UKie has clearly shifted, but to say 1400 miles? I get what you are saying, I just think that's a bit much.

Heres the dProg/dT for the UKie.
Attached Image


Here is the ECMWF, today's track wasn't updated, but it is even further west than these.
Attached Image



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