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> Hurricane Katia, 9/7 4PM CDT CAT 1 - 80 MPH - 980mb - Movement: SE @ N.S. mph
Phased Vort
post Sep 4 2017, 07:42 PM
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2017, DB, O, 2017090500, 9999999999, , , , , 3, METWATCH, , AL952017

Invest 95L located in the GOMEX, Bay of Campeche.



Nice cloud blooming cloud cover.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 4 2017, 07:44 PM
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QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers activity and gusty winds.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for slow
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


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Ron in Miami
post Sep 4 2017, 08:26 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 4 2017, 08:42 PM) *
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2017, DB, O, 2017090500, 9999999999, , , , , 3, METWATCH, , AL952017

Invest 95L located in the GOMEX, Bay of Campeche.



Nice cloud blooming cloud cover.


Ya beat me to the punch lol....things are crazy hectic down here right now O_o;;;;
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Phased Vort
post Sep 4 2017, 08:40 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Sep 4 2017, 08:26 PM) *
Ya beat me to the punch lol....things are crazy hectic down here right now O_o;;;;



lol tongue.gif

Donīt worry.

When you canīt make it, I will be sure to do it.

Iīm the assistente! biggrin.gif


Indeed very busy. Itīs fun like this!

I think this one gets named, but so far does not look like anything dangerous.


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joseph507123
post Sep 5 2017, 03:58 PM
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Now a Tropical Depression.


--------------------
2017-2018 Winter

Winter Weather Advisories: 1

Winter Storm Warnings: 0

Blizzard Warnings: 0

Windchill Warnings: 0

Largest snowfall: 2.75''

Seasonal snowfall: 3.75''

Coldest temperature: 10F

Coldest windchill: -4F
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MaineJay
post Sep 6 2017, 03:07 AM
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Katia?

Attached Image

Go boom?
Attached Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/1...3L_floater.html


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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WestLafayette62
post Sep 6 2017, 11:18 AM
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Looking pretty respective.


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If I had 1 wish, I'd wish for more wishes. And Tons of snow.
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Phased Vort
post Sep 6 2017, 11:37 AM
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QUOTE(WestLafayette62 @ Sep 6 2017, 11:18 AM) *
Looking pretty respective.


12Z GFS shows this getting close to CAT1 hurricane or becoming one.

So far, with whatīs shown, this one should track to the WSW and hit Mexico.

RECON is flying there now to investigate.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 6 2017, 12:58 PM
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RECON OBS 17 for the Katia flight:

Lowest pressure found so far;

Attached Image

Winds so far 59.8mph.


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stretchct
post Sep 6 2017, 01:56 PM
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HDOB 25 with 66kt winds. 992 pressure. Hurricane soon? Three at once?


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First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
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Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
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2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Phased Vort
post Sep 6 2017, 02:19 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Sep 6 2017, 01:56 PM) *
HDOB 25 with 66kt winds. 992 pressure. Hurricane soon? Three at once?


Yea.

Soon enough.

Attached Image

Attached Image


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Phased Vort
post Sep 6 2017, 02:29 PM
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As per the info below from the NHC server, Katia has become a hurricane.

KATIA, AL, L, , , , , 13, 2017, HU, O, 2017090500, 9999999999, , , , , 2, WARNING, 3, AL132017

The NHC site should be updated soon.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 6 2017, 04:43 PM
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Katia ascends.

QUOTE
000
WTNT43 KNHC 062054
TCDAT3

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

An Air Force reconnaissance plane just investigated Katia and found
a much better organized tropical cyclone with a partial eyewall. It
also measured a flight-level wind of 71 kt and 66 kt with the SFMR.
Based on these data and the improved satellite presentation, Katia
is upgraded to a hurricane with 65 kt winds.

The upper-level wind pattern is becoming more favorable, and that
can be observed by the expansion of the outflow. All models continue
to favor intensification, and in fact, the SHIPS RI index gives a
63 percent chance of a 30-kt wind increase in 24 hours. The NHC
forecast calls for strengthening but at this time is not as high as
some of the guidance.

Katia is embedded within very weak steering currents, and it is now
moving slowly toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The hurricane is
forecast to meander in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next
day or two. After that time the global models develop a ridge over
the northern Gulf of Mexico and this flow pattern will steer Katia
southwestward toward the state of Veracruz. The NHC forecast is
basically on top of the multi-model consensus and follows the trend
of the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

Given the upward intensity trend and the forecast track toward
the coast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch
for a portion of the coast of the state of Veracruz. Katia is also
forecast to bring torrential rains primarily to the state of
Veracruz during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 21.7N 95.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 21.5N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 21.3N 94.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 21.1N 95.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 19.5N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


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beninbaltimore
post Sep 6 2017, 05:36 PM
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Pretty incredible to look at NHC right now and see 3 hurricanes dominating the picture from the GOM to Central/West-Central Atlantic.


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rainstorm
post Sep 6 2017, 05:43 PM
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With it in a very favorable area for years now it may well become a major.
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Qdeathstar
post Sep 7 2017, 06:31 PM
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QUOTE(rainstorm @ Sep 6 2017, 06:43 PM) *
With it in a very favorable area for years now it may well become a major.



Yep.. when is the last time the atlantic ocean had three major hurricanes at the same time?


--------------------
Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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stretchct
post Sep 8 2017, 08:47 PM
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Looks like Katia made landfall. Last reported at 105mph, expected to strengthen. I didn't find any HDOBs to verify that it did.

7:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 8
Location: 20.9°N 96.8°W
Moving: WSW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

This post has been edited by stretchct: Sep 8 2017, 08:48 PM


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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Burr@Work
post Sep 8 2017, 09:02 PM
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Katia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...AIR FORCE PLANE EN ROUTE TO KATIA...

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 96.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco
* South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 96.8 West. Katia is moving
toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday. The center of Katia will make
landfall in Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall,
followed by rapid weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels near and to the
north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and
Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi,
western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are
possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San
Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area tonight or early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions expected to continue within the tropical storm
warning areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Lamers/Blake

NNNN


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Phased Vort
post Sep 8 2017, 10:38 PM
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Mexico dealing with Katia with pretty dangerous storm surge there.

At the same time, Cuba is getting battered by CAT 5 Irma.

Then thereīs Jose coming very close to the Virgin Islands, and Leeward islands and may actually beat on them.


The GOMEX is indeed a explosive development amusement park for tropical cyclones; Harvey exploded and Katia in two days went from nothing to a strong CAT2.


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Burr@Work
post Sep 8 2017, 10:39 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 8 2017, 11:38 PM) *
Mexico dealing with Katia with pretty dangerous storm surge there.

At the same time, Cuba is getting battered by CAT 5 Irma.

Then thereīs Jose coming very close to the Virgin Islands, and Leeward islands and may actually beat on them.
The GOMEX is indeed a explosive development amusement park for tropical cyclones; Harvey exploded and Katia in two days went from nothing to a strong CAT2.


Crazy... and Jose is also just 2mph from a Cat 5.


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