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> Jan 17-20nd MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 14 2018, 06:28 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 14 2018, 08:24 PM) *
Well, "funny" you should mention that.


Yea it doesnt look to be east coast express rather a tuck in and move on its way scenario. With lead wave tapping into the Baroclinic zone up north that should help push the region more NE if not ENE up there which halts the up the coast idea. If Euro manages to hold bar through 00z tonight and then even 12z tomorrow ill bite, but until then ill hold to the idea it throws a couple bouts of snow shower potential back to the coast maybe to 95 and then thats about all she wrote. Except for maybe a bit more potential further south into VA/NC and Delmarva which will be nailed out probably by tomorrow.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jan 14 2018, 06:29 PM


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MaineJay
post Jan 14 2018, 06:33 PM
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EPS with spread is definitely interesting.

Hour 96

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stretchct
post Jan 14 2018, 06:45 PM
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Just read cranky. Not the easiest read tonite, especially on a phone. Trying to see about this retrograding(?) upper low in the Atlantic. GFS and EURO handle similarly. IS it correct? Well, there's a lot less noise in the Atlantic.


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2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
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2012-2013 64.5"
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2010-2011 79"
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 14 2018, 06:53 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 14 2018, 05:46 PM) *
Last portion in reference to this storm as for the warmth I never was much of a fan of the sustained look to anything pattern seemed very wavey in the end averaging out LR GFS always blends things down to a balanced state it seems no real big swings and when you do get those big swings in the LR then you can start keying in on it.

Ill take the 40's for a little while about 5-10 degrees above average dayside.

Ahhhh ok
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jdrenken
post Jan 14 2018, 09:44 PM
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From cranky when DT attacked the NWS multi-WFO snow forecast claiming it was GFS "bs".

Cranky last night and WPC today

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rtcemc
post Jan 14 2018, 10:05 PM
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Thunderblizzard
post Jan 14 2018, 11:05 PM
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FWIW... CMC just leaped NW with this thing.


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--------------------

2010-2011 Snowfall: Nov: 0.5" | Dec: 9.2" | Jan: 51.5" | Feb: 9.0" | Mar: 1.8" | Apr: 1.0" | Total: 73.0"

2011-2012 Snowfall: Oct: 12.0" | Nov: 0.0" | Dec: T | Jan: 8.6" | Feb: 5.2" | Total: 25.8"

2012-2013 Snowfall: Nov: 10.7" | Dec: 13.0" | Jan: 6.0" | Feb: 34.5" | Mar: 14.0" | Total: 78.2"

2013-2014 Snowfall: Nov: T | Dec: 11.5" | Jan: 12.5" | Feb: 34.8" | Mar: 3.5" | Apr: 0.3" | Total: 62.6"

2014-2015 Snowfall: Nov: 3.0" | Dec: 0.2" | Jan: 23.8" | Feb: 34.0" | Mar: 14.5" | Apr: T | Total: 75.5"

2015-2016 Snowfall: Nov: 0.0" | Dec: 1.0" | Jan: 8.9" | Feb: 18.6" | Mar: 3.7" | Apr: 6.8" | Total: 39.0"

2016-2017 Snowfall: Oct: 0.5" | Nov: 1.2" | Dec: 9.4" | Jan: 14.6" | Feb: 20.8" | Mar: 17.9" | Apr: 0.1" | Total: 64.5"

2017-2018 Snowfall: Nov: T | Dec: 14.1" | Jan: 18.4" | Feb: 8.0" | Mar: 21.5" | Apr: 7.8" | Total: 69.8"
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snowcrazed71
post Jan 15 2018, 03:32 AM
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QUOTE(Thunderblizzard @ Jan 14 2018, 11:05 PM) *
FWIW... CMC just leaped NW with this thing.


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Any news on this low....the Canadian brought it closer to the coast...has the Euro zone the same?
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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 04:41 AM
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(for like the 100th time) First storm sets up the second. The first one slows the front (snowing "out" over PA) allowing the coastal reflection to get nudged eer closer to the coast.

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avsguy01
post Jan 15 2018, 07:06 AM
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Yeah this is an entirely different game for mid atlantic if the front does stall and a secondary low develops tighter to the coast. We've seen it alot this year where stalls and NW shifts we're more common as we approach time frames.

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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 07:27 AM
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6z NAV is "inside" of the 00z NAV track and is also slower.



This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 15 2018, 07:28 AM
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stretchct
post Jan 15 2018, 07:59 AM
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I don't think the GFS has bit on this one once. Other than forming offshore and going OTS.
Not even much from the ensembles


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First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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bigben89
post Jan 15 2018, 08:08 AM
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More of a NE storm than MA storm, eh hosers?


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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 09:09 AM
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A bit "complex" would be the word

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MaineJay
post Jan 15 2018, 09:41 AM
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It looks like most of my snow will be from moisture associated with the coastal system, so I'll post this here.

Interesting convergence zone near OBX. My gut feeling is that surface low pressure would form under the area of greatest ascent.

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MaineJay
post Jan 15 2018, 09:44 AM
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SREFs, I think this is called a "trend".

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rtcemc
post Jan 15 2018, 10:22 AM
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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
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plowxpress
post Jan 15 2018, 11:05 AM
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Holly says ha

QUOTE
The secondary low development off the Middle Atlantic coast on Tuesday night appears as though it will be too late to have any significant impact on our region. However, we will continue to keep an eye on the system in case the details regarding its development change. The low is not expected to begin deepening much until it reaches our latitude late on Tuesday night. It should lift quickly toward the waters off New England and Canada`s Maritime Provinces on Wednesday.
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Solstice
post Jan 15 2018, 11:24 AM
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SREFs seem to be divided into two camps, one favoring <3 and one favoring >3. Guessing that has to do with how close the coastal low is.

Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 12:16 PM
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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

.
QUOTE
GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES...

NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES WERE SEEN AT THE SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE
HAND-OFF IN THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT W ATLANTIC AS
A SYSTEM DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. MID-LEVEL TROUGH (OR PERHAPS
CLOSED LOW) SHOULD EXIT THE DELMARVA EARLY THURSDAY PER THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN (AND THEIR ENSEMBLES) BUT THE 00Z/06Z GFS
RUNS (AND GEFS ENSEMBLES) WERE QUICKER/WEAKER WITH IT. GIVEN THE
TENDENCY FOR THE GFS TO BE TOO QUICK OPTED TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON
THE SLOWER CAMP BUT STILL PREFERRED A QUICKER SOLUTION THAN THE
ECMWF-LED CLUSTER VERBATIM.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PMDHMD (SHORT
RANGE DISCUSSION) FOR DETAILS ON THIS FEATURE (AND WITH THE LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE) AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THAT TIME RANGE.


QUOTE
HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM
AND GFS BOTH DEPICT A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THIS WAVE
ALLOWING FOR
GREATER AMPLIFICATION SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z THURS. THIS
DELAYS THE SURFACE LOW AND TRANSLATION OF THE TROF OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER BOTH ARE STILL MUCH FASTER THAN THE REMAINING NON-NCEP
SUITE.
ALL THREE DEPICT A MUCH SLOWER SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROF
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS; IN DOING SO
THE VORTICITY STRIP IS ABLE TO CURL/CONSOLIDATE.
THE 00Z CMC GOES
TO THE EXTREME AND BECOMES SYMMETRIC AND DEVELOPS A SECONDARY
SURFACE WAVE THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN HAD TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLDING AND WHILE STILL MUCH MORE CONSOLIDATED THAN THE
GFS... THERE IS SOME SHADES OF THE NAM MIDDAY THURS TO HAVE SOME
INDICATION THAT GUIDANCE IS HONING IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION. THE
00Z UKMET BUILDS CREDENCE TO THIS EVOLUTION...AS A MIDDLE GROUND
TO THE NAM/ECMWF. AS SUCH A BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF AND 12Z
NAM IS PREFERRED YET THE RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND MODEL SPREAD
PROVIDE LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 15 2018, 12:19 PM
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