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> January 18 - 20th Eastern Canada Storm, Observations
bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 07:14 AM
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WPC surface forecast for day 4:

Attached File  9khwbg_conus.gif ( 26.73K ) Number of downloads: 3


Discussion - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF GUIDANCE ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXISTENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NWD NEAR THE EAST COAST SUN-MON. HOWEVER CRUCIAL DETAILS
IN TRACK/STRENGTH WILL TAKE ADDED TIME TO WORK OUT SINCE THE
SOURCE ENERGY ALOFT IS STILL OVER THE ERN PAC AND NOT SCHEDULED TO
REACH THE WEST COAST UNTIL AROUND EARLY FRI. STEADILY DEEPER
TREND OF THE SFC LOW IN ECMWF MEANS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT PARTIAL WEIGHT OF OPERATIONAL SOLNS THAT ARE STRONGER
THAN THE MEANS. WITH A FAIR CLUSTER OF MODEL SOLNS AND EVENTUALLY
THE ECMWF MEAN CLOSING OFF AN UPR LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST... AS
WELL AS A WWD TREND IN THE 00Z GFS TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF... THE WRN
PORTION OF THE SFC LOW ENVELOPE MAY BE PLAUSIBLE. HOWEVER THUS
FAR THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH RUN TO RUN MODEL CHANGES AND OVERALL
SOLN SPREAD TO FAVOR A MORE INTERMEDIATE SOLN JUST A LITTLE WWD OF
THE CENTER OF THE ENSEMBLE LOW SPREAD.


00z GEFS @ hour 120:

Attached File  f120.gif ( 124.74K ) Number of downloads: 7


Attached File  f12032.gif ( 155.51K ) Number of downloads: 6


This post has been edited by bigmt: Jan 18 2015, 06:46 PM
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 07:17 AM
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00z ECMWF text.

Ottawa:

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YOW    LAT=  45.32 LON=  -75.67 ELE=   374

                                            00Z JAN15
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

MON 00Z 19-JAN  -0.2    -2.9    1009      90      60    0.00     541     534    
MON 06Z 19-JAN   0.4    -2.9    1005      98      99    0.11     539     535    
MON 12Z 19-JAN   0.5    -2.0     996      94     100    0.57     534     537    
MON 18Z 19-JAN  -3.4    -1.0     989      84      98    0.45     527     535    
TUE 00Z 20-JAN  -8.1    -3.2     990      82      96    0.18     522     530    
TUE 06Z 20-JAN -10.6    -8.5     992      78      98    0.11     518     525    
TUE 12Z 20-JAN -11.1   -10.7     994      78      99    0.12     517     522    
TUE 18Z 20-JAN -11.4   -12.4     997      68      95    0.09     519     521    
WED 00Z 21-JAN -12.5   -18.6    1002      71      96    0.03     521     519


Montreal:

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YUL    LAT=  45.47 LON=  -73.75 ELE=   118

                                            00Z JAN15
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

MON 00Z 19-JAN   0.4    -1.9    1011      85      84    0.00     544     536    
MON 06Z 19-JAN   1.0    -0.3    1005      98      98    0.43     542     538    
MON 12Z 19-JAN   3.1     0.7     994      92      98    0.42     537     542    
MON 18Z 19-JAN   4.4     1.3     986      91      64    0.31     527     539    
TUE 00Z 20-JAN  -2.1    -2.7     987      90      80    0.14     522     532    
TUE 06Z 20-JAN -10.0    -8.2     991      77      98    0.04     517     523    
TUE 12Z 20-JAN -11.3   -13.1     993      77      97    0.03     515     520    
TUE 18Z 20-JAN -10.3   -12.3     995      74      99    0.05     515     520    
WED 00Z 21-JAN -11.2   -15.6     999      70      98    0.09     519     519


Quebec City:

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YQB    LAT=  46.80 LON=  -71.37 ELE=   243

                                            00Z JAN15
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

MON 00Z 19-JAN  -1.2    -3.9    1014      81      55    0.00     545     534    
MON 06Z 19-JAN  -0.1    -0.8    1010      94      98    0.08     544     536    
MON 12Z 19-JAN   3.0     0.2    1002      90      95    0.23     543     541    
MON 18Z 19-JAN   3.7    -0.3     993      86      93    0.28     538     543    
TUE 00Z 20-JAN   3.2     0.6     989      89      42    0.10     530     539    
TUE 06Z 20-JAN   1.3    -2.4     987      95      76    0.07     523     534    
TUE 12Z 20-JAN  -9.5    -7.4     991      85      93    0.10     518     525    
TUE 18Z 20-JAN  -9.5   -11.5     993      67      95    0.05     516     521    
WED 00Z 21-JAN -12.2   -14.7     996      83      97    0.02     516     519
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 07:19 AM
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06z GFS @ hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_namer_096_1000_500_thick.gif ( 69.42K ) Number of downloads: 3


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_namer_108_1000_500_thick.gif ( 69.56K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_namer_120_1000_500_thick.gif ( 70.33K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 132:

Attached File  gfs_namer_132_1000_500_thick.gif ( 68.47K ) Number of downloads: 3
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 07:43 AM
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EC - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html

QUOTE
NEW BRUNSWICK

Snow.. Rain.. And strong winds could affect New Brunswick Sunday night and Monday.

A low pressure system is forecast to develop off the American Eastern Seaboard on Sunday night and track towards the Maritimes. This system brings with it the potential for significant snow and rain as well as strong winds for Sunday night and Monday.

Environment Canada will continue to monitor the development of this system providing updates as new information becomes available.


QUOTE
NOVA SCOTIA

Rain and strong winds could affect Nova Scotia on Monday.

A low pressure system is forecast to develop off the American Eastern Seaboard on Sunday night and track towards the Maritimes. This system brings with it the potential for significant rain as well as strong winds for Monday.

Environment Canada will continue to monitor the development of this system providing updates as new information becomes available.
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Torontoweather
post Jan 15 2015, 08:58 AM
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Haha Americans side with western solution an ,Canadian side with eastern. Very interesting storm. Something between GFS and EURO would be great! smile.gif


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Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)!
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Torontoweather
post Jan 15 2015, 09:01 AM
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On a side note: That 00z ECMWF showed 40-50cm for Ottawa! I do believe whoever is in bullseye of this storm will get walloped.


--------------------
New blog for southern Ontario!
Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)!
http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/

"Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!"
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BIG Snowstorms
post Jan 15 2015, 09:14 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jan 15 2015, 09:01 AM) *
On a side note: That 00z ECMWF showed 40-50cm for Ottawa! I do believe whoever is in bullseye of this storm will get walloped.


What are the chances at this point that we (Hamilton area) will finally get some action?
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 09:22 AM
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QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 15 2015, 09:14 AM) *
What are the chances at this point that we (Hamilton area) will finally get some action?


From this storm? Pretty slim I'd say, unless we see some serious shifting west even moreso than the ECMWF currently suggests and it's already sort of an outlier.
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BIG Snowstorms
post Jan 15 2015, 09:24 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Jan 15 2015, 09:22 AM) *
From this storm? Pretty slim I'd say, unless we see some serious shifting west even moreso than the ECMWF currently suggests and it's already sort of an outlier.


Thanks for the response. Always appreciated.
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 09:30 AM
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QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 15 2015, 09:24 AM) *
Thanks for the response. Always appreciated.


Keep watching, we could still see potential over the next while as we continue to have a pattern that can offer chances here if things pan out.

The late-week threat is all over the place but isn't to be entirely dismissed even if the majority of the solutions look east of the 00z OP ECMWF; just need more time to sharpen up the forecast.
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 11:19 AM
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12z GFS @ hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_slp_east2_15.png ( 133.46K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_slp_east2_17.png ( 139.71K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_slp_quebec_19.png ( 145.32K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_slp_quebec_21.png ( 140.47K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by bigmt: Jan 15 2015, 11:20 AM
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shane o mac
post Jan 15 2015, 12:09 PM
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Wow what do you know a storm west of us wink.gif .. Next pretty sad rain in late january ..
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 12:44 PM
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Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...eekend/40663430

Attached File  650x366_01151622_hd25.jpg ( 62.63K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 12:57 PM
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12z GEFS @ hour 96:

Attached File  f96.gif ( 133.27K ) Number of downloads: 3
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 12:58 PM
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It's hard not to envision the 12z Euro shifting east based on the latest but we'll see shortly here.
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 01:41 PM
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12z ECMWF text.

Ottawa:

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YOW    LAT=  45.32 LON=  -75.67 ELE=   374

                                            12Z JAN15
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

SUN 12Z 18-JAN   0.6    -4.3    1006      75      86    0.00     540     535    
SUN 18Z 18-JAN   2.8    -4.6    1006      77      88    0.01     538     533    
MON 00Z 19-JAN   1.1    -4.6    1007      91      97    0.02     536     531    
MON 06Z 19-JAN  -1.0    -4.7    1004      97      98    0.01     532     529    
MON 12Z 19-JAN   0.4    -5.8    1002      94      99    0.03     528     526    
MON 18Z 19-JAN  -5.7    -6.9    1004      63     100    0.02     526     522    
TUE 00Z 20-JAN -13.1   -10.7    1007      67      51    0.00     524     519    
TUE 06Z 20-JAN -18.3   -13.1    1008      70       3    0.00     523     516    
TUE 12Z 20-JAN -21.4   -13.5    1011      69       6    0.00     525     516


Montreal:

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YUL    LAT=  45.47 LON=  -73.75 ELE=   118

                                            12Z JAN15
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

SUN 12Z 18-JAN  -3.7    -3.8    1009      72      67    0.00     542     535    
SUN 18Z 18-JAN   2.6    -3.6    1008      73      80    0.00     541     534    
MON 00Z 19-JAN   1.2    -3.5    1008      88      83    0.01     540     534    
MON 06Z 19-JAN   0.5    -4.1    1003      98      98    0.08     536     533    
MON 12Z 19-JAN   0.5    -4.7     999      97      97    0.20     529     530    
MON 18Z 19-JAN  -1.5    -6.4     997      78     100    0.12     523     525    
TUE 00Z 20-JAN  -8.6   -13.4    1001      71      97    0.14     520     519    
TUE 06Z 20-JAN -13.0   -19.2    1002      70      95    0.11     518     517    
TUE 12Z 20-JAN -16.6   -21.3    1006      64      92    0.02     519     515


Quebec City:

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YQB    LAT=  46.80 LON=  -71.37 ELE=   243

                                            12Z JAN15
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

SUN 12Z 18-JAN -12.2    -7.1    1012      74      78    0.01     540     530    
SUN 18Z 18-JAN  -2.6    -5.1    1010      80      95    0.04     540     532    
MON 00Z 19-JAN  -0.2    -3.8    1010      86      73    0.02     541     533    
MON 06Z 19-JAN  -0.3    -2.8    1005      98      99    0.15     540     536    
MON 12Z 19-JAN   1.1    -0.6     996      95     100    0.78     536     539    
MON 18Z 19-JAN   1.7    -0.7     987      90      86    0.39     527     537    
TUE 00Z 20-JAN  -5.4    -5.6     987      88      96    0.18     516     527    
TUE 06Z 20-JAN -11.1   -12.8     991      77      95    0.13     512     520    
TUE 12Z 20-JAN -13.8   -20.9     995      73      94    0.03     512     516
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JJ Snowlover
post Jan 15 2015, 01:53 PM
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Bahhhhh laugh.gif , thank you Euro for the very brief glimpse of a monster storm here, 40 -50 cm down to 2 cm now with an east shift tongue.gif Oh well it was entertaining for about 2 model runs wink.gif

On a side note, TWN must also like to follow the Euro once and a while; on their 5 day forecast this morning they had Ottawa with 35 - 45 on of snow from this one...
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Cre47
post Jan 15 2015, 05:12 PM
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15 cm but spread probably in a 24-hour or more period. Not too bad
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bigmt
post Jan 15 2015, 05:18 PM
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18z GFS @ hour 60:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_slp_east2_11.png ( 138.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_slp_east2_13.png ( 132.46K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_slp_quebec_15.png ( 131.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_slp_quebec_17.png ( 138.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


Accumulated precip-type @ hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_accum_quebec_19.png ( 145.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Snowfall @ hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_6hr_snow_acc_quebec_19.png ( 163.63K ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by bigmt: Jan 15 2015, 05:36 PM
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sbonnet
post Jan 15 2015, 05:37 PM
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back from holidays and what a nice surprised we have 78cm of snow on the ground. 15cm on the way tonight and further cm over the week end and maybe a storm on monday. Although I think it will not as massive
What a change since Xmas.


rolleyes.gif
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