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> Long Range Autumn 2017 Outlooks, Thoughts & Discussions, Is summer hanging on or will winter come early?
Boomer
post Oct 16 2017, 01:11 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 16 2017, 10:45 AM) *
Well, this look is certainly interesting.

[attachment=331778:gfs_z500...rt_us_44.png]


The OP GFS has been flirting around with the idea of some sort of phaser in the midwest, followed up with a northeast storm as well. Obviously, being so early in the season, I would lean towards it being almost all rain. But if we can get the jet stream that amplified, say from a recurving typhoon or something, October snow is not out of the question. Like mentioned, this will probably be our transitional storm to at least usher in the new pattern that looks to be coming (and possibly staying for a while based on ensembles). Will have to keep an eye out! Could be our first storm of the year to track where someone gets measureable snow.
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NorEaster07
post Oct 16 2017, 01:12 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 16 2017, 12:45 PM) *
Well, this look is certainly interesting.


Looks like this front next week on Monday October 23rd coming across kicks off the entire pattern change..... This moves to the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday, and then........

Attached File  GFS18.jpg ( 428.84K ) Number of downloads: 9




This is for Wednesday as the Jet digs down to the southeast while the hot dry ridge builds in the West

This trough mid next week lifts back out but watch what happens...

Attached File  GFS19.jpg ( 314.18K ) Number of downloads: 9




That weekend another one dives down deep.
Edit:: "Maybe" (Hour 300 here!)

Attached File  GFS20.jpg ( 313.47K ) Number of downloads: 8




I'd like the NAO to be more negative but that huge positive PNA might be all it takes.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ref...n/forecast.html


Attached File  NAO1.jpg ( 144.03K ) Number of downloads: 4



We'll see if we can reverse things where the warm ups are short lived with more deeper cold blasts.
Maybe Michigan & parts of GL & OV going from Summer to Winter skipping Fall?

It's been over 5 weeks now without worthy noted lingering troughs in the East.

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Oct 16 2017, 01:13 PM
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shaulov4
post Oct 16 2017, 01:42 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 16 2017, 02:12 PM) *
Looks like this front next week on Monday October 23rd coming across kicks off the entire pattern change..... This moves to the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday, and then........

Attached File  GFS18.jpg ( 428.84K ) Number of downloads: 9




This is for Wednesday as the Jet digs down to the southeast while the hot dry ridge builds in the West

This trough mid next week lifts back out but watch what happens...

Attached File  GFS19.jpg ( 314.18K ) Number of downloads: 9




That weekend another one dives down deep.
Edit:: "Maybe" (Hour 300 here!)

Attached File  GFS20.jpg ( 313.47K ) Number of downloads: 8




I'd like the NAO to be more negative but that huge positive PNA might be all it takes.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ref...n/forecast.html


Attached File  NAO1.jpg ( 144.03K ) Number of downloads: 4

We'll see if we can reverse things where the warm ups are short lived with more deeper cold blasts.
Maybe Michigan & parts of GL & OV going from Summer to Winter skipping Fall?

It's been over 5 weeks now without worthy noted lingering troughs in the East.


Cold November, December, January thaw and February fun.....these are the things I'm thinking about, this is what I'm seeing the ghost of 2013-2014. We shall see.
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Undertakerson
post Oct 16 2017, 03:08 PM
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Euro look at the situation for the "pattern change" trough


First trough makes in roads - hard to say for certain but looks like elevated region of the interior could see a strip of white or some sort of frozen precip. If there is any blocking (and there is somewhat of a blocky signal going on) then the East could be in for a rough ride as (meaning - if) the system comes up the coast.
Attached File  f216.gif ( 106.83K ) Number of downloads: 5


Trough #2 waiting at the crest of the flattening Western Ridge

Attached File  f240.gif ( 106.5K ) Number of downloads: 3


Yes, Nor' the look of the PNA can, often times, be the only synoptic driver of the outcome - blocking not needed so much (for the east) when we see those large PNA+ #'s.
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NorEaster07
post Oct 16 2017, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 16 2017, 04:08 PM) *
Euro look at the situation for the "pattern change" trough
First trough makes in roads - hard to say for certain but looks like elevated region of the interior could see a strip of white or some sort of frozen precip.


Looking at AccuPro animator Euro12z is too warm even for 5k. Aside the thickness not supporting it looks like 850s arent below freezing for Wed 2am-2pm time frame. The freezing line is in Canada still. Only northern Ohio has negative 850s but they are dry by that time.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Yesterday, 09:57 AM
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.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  1.gif ( 42.89K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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ohiobuckeye45
post Yesterday, 10:00 AM
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hmmm now im intrigued
Attached File(s)
Attached File  1.png ( 114.97K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  2.png ( 115.95K ) Number of downloads: 4
Attached File  3.png ( 113.18K ) Number of downloads: 5
Attached File  4.png ( 115.31K ) Number of downloads: 4
 
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 11:40 AM
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My first frost here this morning... It was everywhere. Grass and roofs of homes and cars all over the area as well.

My low was 38.2. Clear skies and no wind..

Attached File  036.JPG ( 687.67K ) Number of downloads: 1



No Frost under the canopy of Trees And yeah... STILL GREEN! lol

Attached File  048.JPG ( 762.63K ) Number of downloads: 2



You can see where the heat loss from inside is. Areas without frost means heat was escaping from the Attic/Top floor.

Attached File  008.JPG ( 891.39K ) Number of downloads: 2




Close up of grass...

Attached File  020.JPG ( 850.28K ) Number of downloads: 2



Steam from pond.

Attached File  045.JPG ( 804.05K ) Number of downloads: 1



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Ahoff
post Yesterday, 12:08 PM
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First frost in Pittsburgh this morning.
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JDClapper
post Yesterday, 12:41 PM
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Not really the first frost here, but thickest .. was 32.4 or below from 5:30-8:30 at this site a few miles from my house.. MBY bottomed out at 30. It was the best thing on earth. I'm so done with warm. smile.gif

Attached File  Capture.PNG ( 15.53K ) Number of downloads: 1


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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 02:13 PM
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Now, do we have to wait 7 days till the next one? I'm so greedy, I want more now! lol tongue.gif

This week... Enjoy Spring 60s/70s..

Attached File  Map79.jpg ( 390.16K ) Number of downloads: 1



Next week...Changes

Attached File  Map80.jpg ( 373.83K ) Number of downloads: 4


GFS12z 850mb anomalies next Wednesday. Canadian deeper with the cold. Euro is more west more with the axis. All agreeing on the trough..

Attached File  GFS23.jpg ( 305.05K ) Number of downloads: 6

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StL weatherjunki...
post Yesterday, 05:44 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 17 2017, 03:13 PM) *
Now, do we have to wait 7 days till the next one? I'm so greedy, I want more now! lol tongue.gif

This week... Enjoy Spring 60s/70s..

Next week...Changes

GFS12z 850mb anomalies next Wednesday. Canadian deeper with the cold. Euro is more west more with the axis. All agreeing on the trough..

Attached File  GFS23.jpg ( 305.05K ) Number of downloads: 6

Yup, all 3 major models agree on a big time east-coast trough ... sorting out the details is going to be fun
Attached File(s)
Attached File  10_17_8_10_day_heights.gif ( 136.53K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


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ValpoSnow
post Yesterday, 06:59 PM
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City living sucks during this time when everyone else is getting temps in the 30s and frost (like my grandparents in Kentucky) and I haven't dropped below 44 yet.
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ValpoSnow
post Yesterday, 07:02 PM
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18z GFS sure does warm back up the last few days of October into November.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Yesterday, 07:52 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Oct 17 2017, 07:02 PM) *
18z GFS sure does warm back up the last few days of October into November.

GEFS keeps the eastern trof look

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Yesterday, 07:53 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 10:05 PM
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I would pay to see the frames following this mad.gif mad.gif mad.gif







This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 10:06 PM


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grace
post Yesterday, 10:36 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Oct 17 2017, 07:02 PM) *
18z GFS sure does warm back up the last few days of October into November.



We're told to ignore when the end of the run is cold. Should we not ignore when its warm also? wink.gif

We will warm back up before cooling back down...but I'm not relying on end of GFS run.
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