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> April 3-5 MidAtl/NE Storm, Cogitation: Long Range (8-15 Days Out) Forecasts
Blizz
post Mar 20 2013, 02:54 PM
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GFS has been consistent with a storm during this timeframe... It has been showing flip flop solutions each run and a few of them consist of a snow storm while others suggest it will cut too far north to bring snow. We do have cold air to work with for this to be a snowstorm somewhere in the northeast/mid atlantic if we get an ideal track

12z GFS 300



312



324



Should be a fun storm to track... as it is around the Easter timeframe... maybe Easter Monday Storm of 2013? I'll stop the hype at that. laugh.gif

Anyway, discuss.

This post has been edited by Blizz: Mar 26 2013, 11:36 PM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 21 2013, 05:53 PM
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GFS still has it

Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3”(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2”
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2”
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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SnowMan11
post Mar 22 2013, 06:51 AM
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Euro also shows it


--------------------
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JDClapper
post Mar 22 2013, 07:38 PM
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For fun... it's still there on GFS.
In the next 12-24 it scoots east, very slowly.. does not turn up the coast on this run.

24 hour precip 2nd frame..

Attached Image

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This post has been edited by JDClapper: Mar 22 2013, 07:42 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34Ό"

Current Season: 22Ύ"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7Ό"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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JDClapper
post Mar 23 2013, 07:03 PM
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Still showing up on 18z GFS .. later and more north.. some snow in SNE modeled.
Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image



--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34Ό"

Current Season: 22Ύ"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7Ό"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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mtksurfer
post Mar 25 2013, 02:15 PM
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Are the models still showing something during this timeframe?


--------------------
“All of us have in our veins the exact same percentage of salt in our blood that exists in the ocean, and, therefore, we have salt in our blood, in our sweat, in our tears. We are tied to the ocean. And when we go back to the sea - whether it is to sail or to watch it - we are going back from whence we came.”

- John F. Kennedy
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WinterWolf
post Mar 25 2013, 02:20 PM
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QUOTE(mtksurfer @ Mar 25 2013, 03:15 PM) *
Are the models still showing something during this timeframe?


JB mentioned it today on his site. Says todays snowstorm isn't the last for the Northeast/SNE. Blocking pattern is not giving up he says. Oh well, time will tell.
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mtksurfer
post Mar 25 2013, 02:23 PM
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QUOTE(WinterWolf @ Mar 25 2013, 03:20 PM) *
JB mentioned it today on his site. Says todays snowstorm isn't the last for the Northeast/SNE. Blocking pattern is not giving up he says. Oh well, time will tell.



Interesting. I guess I'll have to keep my eye on this. Just when I thought it was a wrap for the season.


--------------------
“All of us have in our veins the exact same percentage of salt in our blood that exists in the ocean, and, therefore, we have salt in our blood, in our sweat, in our tears. We are tied to the ocean. And when we go back to the sea - whether it is to sail or to watch it - we are going back from whence we came.”

- John F. Kennedy
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phillyfan
post Mar 25 2013, 02:27 PM
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Going off today's GFS: Rain on the 1st, maybe on the 4th as well: Great Lakes Cutter. Something showing on the 6th and 7th, (rain) but that'll be for another thread in future possibly.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.)
2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.)
2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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telejunkie
post Mar 25 2013, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE(WinterWolf @ Mar 25 2013, 03:20 PM) *
JB mentioned it today on his site. Says todays snowstorm isn't the last for the Northeast/SNE. Blocking pattern is not giving up he says. Oh well, time will tell.


as most here know, it's about the placement of the block that is going to determine whether the EC sees any snow flakes. If we can get a west based block, and get a possible earlier transfer, we could see a snowstorm for somebody in the Northeast. As it stands right now, it's looking like a cutter with too late transfer except for mountains in far northeastern New England.

Also considering the air mass, snow elevations will most likely be rather high even if we can get the 850mb crit line to sink south.

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Mar 25 2013, 03:15 PM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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WinterWolf
post Mar 25 2013, 05:26 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 25 2013, 03:49 PM) *
as most here know, it's about the placement of the block that is going to determine whether the EC sees any snow flakes. If we can get a west based block, and get a possible earlier transfer, we could see a snowstorm for somebody in the Northeast. As it stands right now, it's looking like a cutter with too late transfer except for mountains in far northeastern New England.

Also considering the air mass, snow elevations will most likely be rather high even if we can get the 850mb crit line to sink south.



Yes, I'm not counting on any more snow...I'm thinking it's done too.
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 25 2013, 05:42 PM
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Looks like a cold front as another trough digs into the region, following a brief warm up at the very end of March. No widespread snowstorm likely here.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 25 2013, 06:19 PM
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It's going to be nice to track storms you already know is rain, no more headaches ..Surprised it doesn't warm up a little more ahead of the front, gfs pretty much showing 40's..I rather have warm rainstorms then raw rain storms, for obvious reasons..

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Mar 25 2013, 06:19 PM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3”(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2”
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2”
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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bingobobbo
post Mar 25 2013, 06:29 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 25 2013, 03:27 PM) *
Going off today's GFS: Rain on the 1st, maybe on the 4th as well: Great Lakes Cutter. Something showing on the 6th and 7th, (rain) but that'll be for another thread in future possibly.


If it cuts through the Great Lakes, there is no way it will miss us--rain never misses us. I believe it will come on March 31 because we always seem to get a GLC right at the end of a calendar month. And it will most likely be our favorite--a lovely 34-degree affair, like Feb. 27.


--------------------
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gulfofslides
post Mar 25 2013, 06:32 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Mar 25 2013, 06:29 PM) *
If it cuts through the Great Lakes, there is no way it will miss us--rain never misses us. I believe it will come on March 31 because we always seem to get a GLC right at the end of a calendar month. And it will most likely be our favorite--a lovely 34-degree affair, like Feb. 27.

rain for all but the mtns of NNE wink.gif
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WeatherDudeNYC
post Mar 25 2013, 07:37 PM
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18z GFS temps during the storm. Only temps close to freezing in VT,NH and ME.



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telejunkie
post Mar 26 2013, 06:57 AM
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time to split this thread since we have two potential storms that bookend this time frame. A cutter with 'potential' for secondary development along the coast of New England for the early storm. And a potential storm developing down around the Gulf States for the later storm.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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DiehardFF
post Mar 26 2013, 11:36 AM
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12z GFS has this...

This post has been edited by DiehardFF: Mar 26 2013, 11:36 AM


--------------------
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Undertakerson
post Mar 26 2013, 11:37 AM
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bingobobbo
post Mar 26 2013, 12:24 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Mar 25 2013, 07:32 PM) *
rain for all but the mtns of NNE wink.gif


i have a feeling that the biggest slug of moisture will coincide with Easter/end of march, so this may end up being a wetter than average month. February was ONE hundredth of an inch shy of normal, while January was a tenth of an inch short. If this is anything like Easter week 2005, we may get a big rain. If it has to rain, I hope it is a mild one.


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