Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

34 Pages V  « < 32 33 34  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
grace
post Oct 21 2014, 10:12 PM
Post #661




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,232
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 21 2014, 09:19 PM) *
I've made this point before... but I'll repeat. Look at the SST's in the north Pacific this time last year and compare to now.

(Sorry, can't post image; on my mom's laptop, can't access that site... my laptop broke. You have the resources wink.gif)

Could you have been able to tell a +PDO was going to form in the next 3 months?

I doubt it. But if you did, then you'd see that this is exactly the same scenario, however with SST's flipped.

It was a classic -PDO signal. In October, the pattern changed and ridging took place and the GOA warmed up. Well this year, the pattern changed and troughing took place and the west coast cooled down.

Do you see the similarities?

We agree on the idea that this September/October GOA troughing may be an anomaly for the next 12 months, but we don't really have a way of knowing right now. All we can do is use what we've got (observed).


Big difference on location of the cooler sst's. Watch this animation since Oct. 15, 2013 until Oct. 15, 2014. GOA was colder than normal last year mid Oct.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/e...mp;endyear=2014

The warmer sst's were further from land with cooler closer. This year it's cooler sst's away from land while warmer close to land. With a strengthening +PDO last month (it may have peaked) I just don't think cooler sst's will cover the entire GOS unelss storminess absolutely camps out which is not forecasted to do with models picking up on return of ridging...at least off & on.

It's just still too early for people to be hyping cold or hyping warm...atmosphere is still evolving.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Oct 21 2014, 10:23 PM
Post #662




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,232
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 21 2014, 09:58 PM) *
Gotcha. It seems a GOA ridge emerging would shock a lot of people here... isn't the continued persistent GOA trough alarming to you forecasters? I know you'd say something along the lines of "there's more than one way to skin a cat", but the EPO is the one that allegedly "saved" last winter from being a torch. I'd be a bit more concerned than you guys are about the idea of this "savior" teleconnection being opposite of what it was last winter.


Who said anything about a persistent GOA ridge? Off & on ridging will more than likely return (remember JD's forecast of cool...warm...cool? this supports it) but it's not the tell all of winter either way. I'm not wishcasting...I'm the one who just posted the other day that I didn't see GOA troughiness disappearing anytime soon. You're the one that posted an Euro image saying "Looks like it will...". All I'm saying is what current data is pointing towards. If data points towards warm...then I'm going to say warm. If it doesn't then I'm not.

I don't think anyone disagrees on here that some very toasty November conditions will be experienced at times especially in the east. But...when's the last time we've had a cooler than normal November over the last 15 years? Not many....point being November doesn't spell the whole winter. There are many indicators in the stratosphere etc...of good things on the winter side. That doesn't mean this winter will be brutally cold & snowy but I do think at least an average winter will be on hand.

BTW...I'm glad you like quoting me. wink.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Oct 21 2014, 10:24 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post Oct 21 2014, 10:42 PM
Post #663




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,637
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





All of the winter outlooks that I have saw so far have the a cold and snowy winter for the east except for Noaa.


--------------------
Winter =)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Yesterday, 12:11 AM
Post #664




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,232
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





Go to hour 252 of the 0z GFS & it shows perfectly what I expect. Low pressure in the Pacific but away from land out over the colder waters with ridging close to land where the warm SST's are with the +PDO sig. Below normal anomalies in the central CONUS.

This post has been edited by grace: Yesterday, 12:11 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
idecline
post Yesterday, 05:27 AM
Post #665




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,366
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866





QUOTE(grace @ Oct 21 2014, 09:00 PM) *
My long-range excitement was just the fact that GEFS, NAEFS, Euro, & GGEM ensembles are showing more ridging in the GOA & Alaska & W. Canada....lest storminess in the GOA.

Everyone keeps alluding to the SST's cooling in the N. Pacific. It's a classic +PDO set up...with the warmer sst's closer to land in the horseshoe look while cooler sst's between. PDO is positive right now so this is expected. Not sure the warmer sst's close to land will disappear at all:

+PDO


CURRENT SST'S


Eventually over the next 6-10 months the Pacific will slowly move towards a -PDO look...but not until this weak Nino ENSO event runs it's course over the next 5-6 months.


Excellent! Great information about the PDO. As a native Californian my interest in the PDO and El Nino has always been a bit more fervent than some. Most of my weather knowledge is pre-Index and Model 'Madness'. My interpretations are more visual, seasonal, and experiential than analytical (ie: Organic). I believe the patterns control the indices, not the other way around. Any form of warm/neutral on up to 'Official' El Nino conditions is a large anomalous pattern in itself. La Nina favors strengthening of 'normal' winter jet stream patterns whereas El Nino's favor unusual and 'anomalous' upper air patterns (IMHO)!

I have been expecting the long mostly PDO- and La Nina /cool-neutral conditions to take a long time to wane...now we may be in a warmer regime (as you say for 5-6 months)... and there might be a correlation (also warmer waters are along the California coastline with not much upwelling)...But IMHO we are heading towards a long term PDO+ (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) wink.gif ...not to say there will not be swings into negative/neutral PDO territory during the time after the warm regime
Attached File  pdo_slp.png ( 84.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


Above is correlation for a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO+)...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1909626 link to my 'Personal Weather' post about "Warm Pools"...

This post has been edited by idecline: Yesterday, 06:33 AM


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Yesterday, 09:56 AM
Post #666




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,232
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





-0z Euro Ensemble Mean continues to show ridging developing in the GOA around the end of month into November

-0z Euro Ensemble Control shows very strong ridging developing, which I do not buy

-0z GEFS keeps troughiness in the GOA

-0z NAEFS Ensemble Mean is in agreement with Euro Ensemble mean

-0z GGEM Ensemble Mean is in agreement with Euro & NAEFS Ensemble Mean but stronger with ridging


Again...I expect there will be fluctuations of GOA troughiness & GOA ridging which has implications further downstream in the CONUS. Not sure there will be a prolonged lock of one or the other...just have to wait & see. If there is I lean more towards further south trough & more ridging in the GOA at some point but could be wrong.

This post has been edited by grace: Yesterday, 09:56 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 09:59 AM
Post #667




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,752
Joined: 21-April 14
From: West Chester, Ohio (513)
Member No.: 29,453





mellow.gif Grace, I think there's a misunderstanding between us since you're repeating what I'm trying to say.

QUOTE(grace @ Oct 21 2014, 11:12 PM) *
Big difference on location of the cooler sst's. Watch this animation since Oct. 15, 2013 until Oct. 15, 2014. GOA was colder than normal last year mid Oct.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/e...mp;endyear=2014

The warmer sst's were further from land with cooler closer. This year it's cooler sst's away from land while warmer close to land. With a strengthening +PDO last month (it may have peaked) I just don't think cooler sst's will cover the entire GOS unelss storminess absolutely camps out which is not forecasted to do with models picking up on return of ridging...at least off & on.

It's just still too early for people to be hyping cold or hyping warm...atmosphere is still evolving.

Read my post over again... my point was that they're similar in the way that they're opposite. In other words, the anomalies in the north Pacific now are exactly opposite of what they were this time last year.

This year:
-Tongue of cold anomalies rapidly extending east from Japan
-Warm anomalies currently dominate the GOA and west coast of NA
-"Classic" +PDO
Last year:
-Tongue of warm anomalies rapidly extending east from Japan
-Cold anomalies dominate the GOA and west coast of NA
-"Classic" -PDO

I'm saying that I see a pattern here. Not only by examining the maps, but also in the GOA weather pattern. Cold anomalies dominated September 2013 (I assume due, in part, to the continuation of the 2012-2013 pattern), then October came along and a ridge took over, and so did the warm anomalies. This year, the warm anomalies dominated September 2013... however, significant troughing is taking place and the GOA is cooling, with no sign of a persistent ridge to re-heat the GOA.

To put it as Sir Newton puts it in his third law... they're equal, yet opposite.

QUOTE(grace @ Oct 21 2014, 11:23 PM) *
Who said anything about a persistent GOA ridge? Off & on ridging will more than likely return (remember JD's forecast of cool...warm...cool? this supports it) but it's not the tell all of winter either way. I'm not wishcasting...I'm the one who just posted the other day that I didn't see GOA troughiness disappearing anytime soon. You're the one that posted an Euro image saying "Looks like it will...". All I'm saying is what current data is pointing towards. If data points towards warm...then I'm going to say warm. If it doesn't then I'm not.

I don't think anyone disagrees on here that some very toasty November conditions will be experienced at times especially in the east. But...when's the last time we've had a cooler than normal November over the last 15 years? Not many....point being November doesn't spell the whole winter. There are many indicators in the stratosphere etc...of good things on the winter side. That doesn't mean this winter will be brutally cold & snowy but I do think at least an average winter will be on hand.

BTW...I'm glad you like quoting me. wink.gif

1) Yes, well, that's a good idiom to use in this context smile.gif
2) I'd be crazy to suggest you're wishcasting.
3) No one said anything about a GOA ridge; that's my point. It's clear that most people here are expecting a GOA trough (thus, +EPO). I was just wondering why people aren't more worried about the prospect of the EPO being positive this winter, when it was the one teleconnection that "saved" last winter. Maybe this is where you thought I was accusing of wishcasting... no... that wasn't my intention. It's just that, if the situation were reversed, I'd be more concerned about the EPO than the other anomalies, given how it acted last winter.
4) Now I'm at school in Blue Ash, using a school laptop, waiting for class to start... so I don't have any of my 1,000 weather geek links I've saved. However, I do know of 2 Novembers in the past 3 years that hinted better at the winter to come than October.

October 2013 was average to slightly below average... while November 2013 was well below, by 3 or 4 degrees. With that said, the first half of October was very warm, but the second half of October had some extremely cold anomalies... so to be fair, the first indication came in October.
October 2011 was also average to slightly below average... while November 2011 was well above average, by 4 or 5 degrees.

This is all for CVG of course, because the world revolves around the OV, duh. tongue.gif

I know I sound hypocritical by suggesting that November may be a more important month than October, since I've been preaching "wait until October ends"... in hindsight, I should've said "wait until November ends". I can't do anything about that now, so it is what it is.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 10:04 AM


--------------------
The Ohio Valley - Home to some of the most extreme severe weather events on record

- The 1974 Super Tornado Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The "Great" Blizzard of 1978
- The Remnants of Hurricane Ike
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Yesterday, 10:09 AM
Post #668




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,232
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 22 2014, 09:50 AM) *
mellow.gif Grace, I think there's a misunderstanding between us.
Read my post over again... my point was that they're similar in the way that they're opposite. In other words, the anomalies in the north Pacific now are exactly opposite of what they were this time last year.

This year:
-Tongue of cold anomalies rapidly extending east from Japan
-Warm anomalies currently dominate the GOA and west coast of NA
-"Classic" +PDO
Last year:
-Tongue of warm anomalies rapidly extending east from Japan
-Cold anomalies dominate the GOA and west coast of NA
-"Classic" -PDO

I'm saying that I see a pattern here. Not only by examining the maps, but also in the GOA weather pattern. Cold anomalies dominated September 2013 (I assume due, in part, to the continuation of the 2012-2013 pattern), then October came along and a ridge took over, and so did the warm anomalies. This year, the warm anomalies dominated September 2013... however, significant troughing is taking place and the GOA is cooling, with no sign of a persistent ridge to re-heat the GOA.
1) Yes, well, that's a good idiom to use in this context smile.gif
2) I'd be crazy to suggest you're wishcasting.
3) No one said anything about a GOA ridge; that's my point. It's clear that most people here are expecting a GOA trough (thus, +EPO). I was just wondering why people aren't more worried about the prospect of the EPO being positive this winter, when it was the one teleconnection that "saved" last winter. Maybe this is where you thought I was accusing of wishcasting... no... that wasn't my intention. It's just that, if the situation were reversed, I'd be more concerned about the EPO than the other anomalies, given how it acted last winter.
4) Now I'm at school in Blue Ash, using a school laptop, waiting for class to start... so I don't have any of my 1,000 weather geek links I've saved. However, I do know of 2 Novembers in the past 3 years that hinted better at the winter to come than October.

October 2013 was average to slightly below average... while November 2013 was well below, by 3 or 4 degrees. With that said, the first half of October was very warm, but the second half of October had some extremely cold anomalies... so to be fair, the first indication came in October.
October 2011 was also average to slightly below average... while November 2011 was well above average, by 4 or 5 degrees.

This is all for CVG of course, because the world revolves around the OV, duh. tongue.gif

I know I sound hypocritical by suggesting that November may be a more important month than October, since I've been preaching "wait until October ends"... in hindsight, I should've said "wait until November ends". I can't do anything about that now, so it is what it is.


BUT you're forgetting that warm anomalies dominated August. August had that record warm bubble sst. It was in September into October that things cooled. Then begin to warm again like you said 2nd half of OCT but especially latter half of NOV into DEC. The "only" difference in the sst's in the North Pacific was along the coast with last year being cool around the coast due to -PDO & this year warmer around the coast due to +PDO.

The only reason -EPO saved winter last year was because of the NAO/AO behavior. There were quick drops but mostly positive. We don't know yet about NAO/AO this winter. I think NAO will be neutral positive just by the way things are evolving but there's really not certain way to predict that. AO I think will be more negative...probably slightly overall periods where it plummets. Usually if AO is negative the NAO is at least at times but I think this will be one of those winters where there will not be a sustained -NAO but a mostly -AO with NAO going negative during short periods of deep -AO bouts.

So, overall not the same atmospheric conditions as last year. Also, stratospheric warming is beginning & could further improve chances of cold. Again, there's no way of knowing how strong the warming will get. It could back off just as quickly as it begins.

I do not totally disagree with anything you're saying...overall. I could be completely wrong!! Keep posting...I enjoy reading your posts & seeing your thoughts. It's all in fun my friend. wink.gif

EDIT: I haven't looked on the anomalies for OCT/NOV...can't right now either...I do remember 3rd week of NOV being much colder anomalies but a very warm early NOV...I was hunting & it was disgusting. smile.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Yesterday, 10:11 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 10:21 AM
Post #669




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,752
Joined: 21-April 14
From: West Chester, Ohio (513)
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(grace @ Oct 22 2014, 11:09 AM) *
BUT you're forgetting that warm anomalies dominated August. August had that record warm bubble sst. It was in September into October that things cooled. Then begin to warm again like you said 2nd half of OCT but especially latter half of NOV into DEC. The "only" difference in the sst's in the North Pacific was along the coast with last year being cool around the coast due to -PDO & this year warmer around the coast due to +PDO.

The only reason -EPO saved winter last year was because of the NAO/AO behavior. There were quick drops but mostly positive. We don't know yet about NAO/AO this winter. I think NAO will be neutral positive just by the way things are evolving but there's really not certain way to predict that. AO I think will be more negative...probably slightly overall periods where it plummets. Usually if AO is negative the NAO is at least at times but I think this will be one of those winters where there will not be a sustained -NAO but a mostly -AO with NAO going negative during short periods of deep -AO bouts.

So, overall not the same atmospheric conditions as last year. Also, stratospheric warming is beginning & could further improve chances of cold. Again, there's no way of knowing how strong the warming will get. It could back off just as quickly as it begins.

I do not totally disagree with anything you're saying...overall. I could be completely wrong!! Keep posting...I enjoy reading your posts & seeing your thoughts. It's all in fun my friend. wink.gif

EDIT: I haven't looked on the anomalies for OCT/NOV...can't right now either...I do remember 3rd week of NOV being much colder anomalies but a very warm early NOV...I was hunting & it was disgusting. smile.gif

Yes, last August and September were very different in the north Pacific.. but I'm only concerning October. We're in the new pattern now, and what happened in August and September were probably a part of the old pattern.

It'll be interesting to see what happens here. I completely understand your viewpoint-- the SST's are supportive of a +PDO reign... but I think there's an underlying pattern here, considering what happened this time last year. But you're right, it's too early to know for sure. It's strange how a classic -PDO situation turned so quickly into a strong +PDO last year. Could nothing ever be as it seems? ohmy.gif tongue.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 10:23 AM


--------------------
The Ohio Valley - Home to some of the most extreme severe weather events on record

- The 1974 Super Tornado Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The "Great" Blizzard of 1978
- The Remnants of Hurricane Ike
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 10:31 AM
Post #670




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,752
Joined: 21-April 14
From: West Chester, Ohio (513)
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(grace @ Oct 22 2014, 10:56 AM) *
-0z Euro Ensemble Mean continues to show ridging developing in the GOA around the end of month into November

-0z Euro Ensemble Control shows very strong ridging developing, which I do not buy

-0z GEFS keeps troughiness in the GOA

-0z NAEFS Ensemble Mean is in agreement with Euro Ensemble mean

-0z GGEM Ensemble Mean is in agreement with Euro & NAEFS Ensemble Mean but stronger with ridging
Again...I expect there will be fluctuations of GOA troughiness & GOA ridging which has implications further downstream in the CONUS. Not sure there will be a prolonged lock of one or the other...just have to wait & see. If there is I lean more towards further south trough & more ridging in the GOA at some point but could be wrong.

I buy the idea of brief ridging in this time frame. It's about time, to be honest. tongue.gif



It's alright.. fun times are ahead in November. I welcome these ups and downs, as long as it's not too much of either. Bring on the massive snow storms, severe weather outbreaks... screw the clipper trains.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 10:31 AM


--------------------
The Ohio Valley - Home to some of the most extreme severe weather events on record

- The 1974 Super Tornado Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The "Great" Blizzard of 1978
- The Remnants of Hurricane Ike
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WEATHERFREAK
post Yesterday, 10:51 AM
Post #671




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 427
Joined: 3-June 07
From: Sarasota, FL.
Member No.: 6,152





QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Oct 21 2014, 05:26 PM) *
200mb CHI anomalies are typically used to monitor the Walker Cell. The more of a nina presence to these anomalies, the stronger the walker cell. The Hadley cell is measures in 500mb Vertical velocity or omega. The more poleward the extent of the +Omega values the broader the hadley cell. You can see the WPAC broadness in the plots below over the last 8 days as an average cell expand's to ~30N.
[attachment=240148:omega_x.gif]

More of a Global view
[attachment=240149:compday.kEth3wW0aO.gif]

You can see the stronger then normal SW Pacific high. This is expected to strengthen over the next 10 days and so will the mid latitude jet packet as the HC moves further North, preventing waves from amplifying into the Japanese sector.
[attachment=240150:compday.FYBh1bkPn5.gif]


If the SW Pacific Walker Cell is strengthening and heading north within that longitude(hope I'm reading you correctly), then is it possible for that HC to actually do the opposite in causing more amplification of Japanese troughs? Like north-south oriented WAR's acting as a psuedo-block for the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Yesterday, 10:53 AM


--------------------
"Windy has wings to fly".
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bretmw1019
post Yesterday, 02:46 PM
Post #672




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 238
Joined: 19-January 11
From: Bloomington, IN
Member No.: 25,152





Anybody see WeatherBell's winter outlook? I don't have access to it, but John Belski made a write up of it...

Sounds.......

Interesting...


QUOTE
WeatherBELL Analytics is a fairly new company.It was started just a few years ago by Joe Bastardi, former hurricane and long range forecaster for Accuweather.... and Joe D'Aleo, the first Director of Meteorology for The Weather Channel.

They have pretty much nailed the winter forecast in most areas the last several winters.
For example...last winter, while NOAA had 5% of the U.S. with below normal temperatures in their forecast, WeatherBELL was talking cold over much of the country with extreme cold in some areas and that is exactly what happened.

Subscribers to WeatherBELL have received the updated winter forecast this morning. This will eventually be posted on their home page which is free.....click HERE

Here is what they say for this winter.....

It will be between a normal winter and the epic winters of the 1970s.

The core of the coldest weather as far as departure from normal temperatures will be from Pierre, SD to Kansas City to St. Louis to Louisville to Cincinnati to Charleston, WV with temperatures for the winter averaging 4 to 6 degrees below normal.

Last winter in Louisville our temps averaged 4 degrees below normal.... so they are saying it will be colder this winter than last.

They have about 60% of the country averaging more than 2 degrees below normal.
As far as snow, with the cold and forecast storm track.... they have the area that will average the most with respect to above normal amounts from Memphis to Paducah and Bowling Green to Louisville, Lexington and Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Syracuse.

WeatherBELL has over 90% of the country with normal to above normal snowfall.

If the WeatherBELL forecast is correct for Louisville, the winter will not be quite as cold as the ones in the late 1970's, but it could be close.

Snow amounts with this forecast should top 20 inches and more than 30 inches is certainly a possibility which would lead to a top ten snowiest winter ever.

This will be very interesting to see how it develops. From their past record on what they have done with seasonal forecasts, hurricane predictions and other major weather events.... I trust their forecasts because they have a very high accuracy rate.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bricktamland
post Yesterday, 04:38 PM
Post #673




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 2
Joined: 11-October 14
Member No.: 29,962





QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ Oct 22 2014, 03:46 PM) *
Anybody see WeatherBell's winter outlook? I don't have access to it, but John Belski made a write up of it...

Sounds.......

Interesting...

Not surprising, it's WeatherBell. Joe Bastardi always forecasts a cold and snowy winter.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Yesterday, 04:40 PM
Post #674




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,477
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(bricktamland @ Oct 22 2014, 05:38 PM) *
Not surprising, it's WeatherBell. Joe Bastardi always forecasts a cold and snowy winter.



I love lamp


I'm sorry, I can't control myself


--------------------

“Some people are born on third base and go through life thinking they hit a triple.” - Barry Switzer
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Yesterday, 04:48 PM
Post #675




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,232
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(bricktamland @ Oct 22 2014, 04:38 PM) *
Not surprising, it's WeatherBell. Joe Bastardi always forecasts a cold and snowy winter.



JB nails any winter that's cold & snowy because that's what he always calls for...he's the counterpart of NOAA. tongue.gif

With that said...I'm a subscriber to Weatherbell & JB is a terrific MET! He just gets too emotional involved with cold bias at times. Updated winter forecast released yesterday...the SUMMARY above is accurate. They did make some changes.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Yesterday, 06:21 PM
Post #676




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,232
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





UKMET SEASONAL UPDATED FORECAST

DJF 500ht
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_en...eter_public.png

...GOA/Alaska ridging

DJF 2M TEMP ANOMALY
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_en...eter_public.png

...Cold central CONUS

DJF PRECIP ANOMALY
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_en...eter_public.png

ph34r.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Yesterday, 06:23 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Yesterday, 07:59 PM
Post #677




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,749
Joined: 17-February 08
From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus)
Member No.: 13,767





QUOTE(grace @ Oct 22 2014, 06:21 PM) *
UKMET SEASONAL UPDATED FORECAST

DJF 500ht
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_en...eter_public.png

...GOA/Alaska ridging

DJF 2M TEMP ANOMALY
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_en...eter_public.png

...Cold central CONUS

DJF PRECIP ANOMALY
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_en...eter_public.png

ph34r.gif

Links won't open for me
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Yesterday, 11:36 PM
Post #678




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,232
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 22 2014, 07:59 PM) *
Links won't open for me


My bad...I just realized that access is forbidden. Overall very similar to the JAMSTEC...maybe a little colder with the coldest anomalies in the heart of the CONUS.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

34 Pages V  « < 32 33 34
Reply to this topicStart new topic
14 User(s) are reading this topic (13 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
1 Members: kroop

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 23rd October 2014 - 02:12 PM