Fall 2012, Outlooks and Forecasts Options

[Dave_182]

Looks like November 2012 is going to be our first month since Oct. 2009 where the mean monthly temp is below-average. Amazing.

This post has been edited by Dave_182: Nov 29 2012, 04:18 PM

[travis3000]

It's looking like November will end up being about 0.2C above normal in Alliston, continuing a long pattern.

[knorthern_knight]

Looks like there's a line of pcpn (mostly rain) going through Eastern Canada Dec 2nd and 3rd. I don't know if it qualifies as a "storm". There's a "low" tracking somewhere in Hudson Bay and northern Quebec at around 1000 mb, which isn't noticable. But Toronto is due for some rain on Sunday. Here's the GFS 6 hour pcpn map at 6 hour intervals...

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[JJ Snowlover]

Looks like November 2012 is going to be our first month since Oct. 2009 where the mean monthly temp is below-average. Amazing.

For Montreal it looks like you will be very close to the average, perhaps only slightly below. MTL Stats

You are current avarage high is 5.5c and the norm is 5.3c. You overall average is 1.6c, and you are currently running .9c, with the cold night and day today it should put it a little lower.

This is close for Ottawa as well, our current avarage high is 5.3c and the norm is 4.9c. The overall average is 1.5c, and we are currently running .3c.

So for both cities the low overnight temps lately have helped bring the mean average down, but our high temps are still higher then normal.

[an uncanny otter]

Well, it looks like November 2012 will end up as Windsor's first cooler-than-normal month since March 2011 (average temp of 2.4°C vs. the average of 2.6°C.) Every month from April 2011 to October 2012 ranked as either normal or warmer-than-normal - 19 consecutive months, to be exact. Now to see if this December will be the start of a cool trend or if we will go back to being above normal again.

This post has been edited by an uncanny otter: Dec 1 2012, 04:25 AM

[travis3000]

The average day time high temp in Alliston was 6.3C in November compared to an average high of 6.3C so we finished Nov with normal temps in that regard. However, the average temp overall when you include nights is 2C and we finished this Nov with an average temp of 1.7C which would put Nov slightly below normal in that regard.

Let's see what December brings!

This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 1 2012, 10:33 AM

[blizzardOf96]

Warm front holding its ground south of us as -nao slows down the pattern, -2 C in toronto right now

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[stuffradio]

I received 8" of rain in November.

[Ottawa blizzard]

For Montreal it looks like you will be very close to the average, perhaps only slightly below. MTL Stats

You are current avarage high is 5.5c and the norm is 5.3c. You overall average is 1.6c, and you are currently running .9c, with the cold night and day today it should put it a little lower.

This is close for Ottawa as well, our current avarage high is 5.3c and the norm is 4.9c. The overall average is 1.5c, and we are currently running .3c.

So for both cities the low overnight temps lately have helped bring the mean average down, but our high temps are still higher then normal.

Are you getting your data from the new airport recording station? According to that station, you finished the month with a below freezing overall mean, the first time this has happened in a November since 1997.

http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climate...12&Month=11

[JJ Snowlover]

Are you getting your data from the new airport recording station? According to that station, you finished the month with a below freezing overall mean, the first time this has happened in a November since 1997.

http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climate...12&Month=11

Yes, I did. Before Friday;s cold temps it was a mean 0.3c, now after a very cold Nov.30 we are at -0.1c

But I dont think December will have any hope at all finishing off colder then average, maybe just average if the month finishes off really cold. The next 4 days features really above normals temps and then goes to only barely normal temps.

This post has been edited by JJ Snowlover: Dec 1 2012, 07:59 PM

[Ottawa blizzard]

Yes, I did. Before Friday;s cold temps it was a mean 0.3c, now after a very cold Nov.30 we are at -0.1c

But I dont think December will have any hope at all finishing off colder then average, maybe just average if the month finishes off really cold. The next 4 days features really above normals temps and then goes to only barely normal temps.

A number of mets seem to be hinting at sustained below average temperatures arriving beginning next weekend..and I don't mean just Joe Bastardi.

[bigmt]

Quick recap of Nov 2012 in terms of temps and precip.

Nov 2012 North American surface temps:

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Nov 2012 Canada surface temps:

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Nov 2012 precip (Oct 31st - Nov 29th), shown as a percentage of average:

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[knorthern_knight]

For those of you who want to know how your particular area did last month, versus normal, check out http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/pro..._summary_e.html Select month and year and format. "HTML" produces a nice display on your screen. "Plain text" is useful for those wanting to download and plot the data. "XML" is also useful for computerised analyses.

The "D" column is the departure from normal temp. Not every station has enough of a long-term record to have normals to compare against, so only some stations have a value there. IMPORTANT watch the "DwTm" (Days without Tm) column, immediately before the "D" column. This gives the number of days missing Tm (mean temp). If it's an auto-station that was out of order for half the month, the resulting mean temp and departure are obviously not reliable.