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> Dec 26-Jan 11 MidAtl/NE Arctic Chill OBS, Forecasts, discussions and OBS
MaineJay
post Dec 23 2017, 07:09 AM
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I thought it might make sense to start a thread to document the upcoming cold. Not sure of the end date, suggestions welcomed.

EPS

Attached Image


Also, since there might be some waves that move along the edge of the cold, feel free to discuss potential for snow if there's no thread for it. smile.gif

GYX
QUOTE
Beyond Christmas we begin to see signs of very cold air poised
to drop into the area. The core of a very cold Arctic low will
be sitting over south central Canada and southwest Hudson Bay,
and the departure of the Christmas storm will begin to draw this
cold air southeastward into northern New England. With the fresh
coat of snow across New England, expect this cold air mass to
encounter little resistance in heading this way, reaching our
area with full potency. The leading edge of this cold air
arrives on Tuesday, with a stiff west northwest wind
accompanying it. 925MB temperatures of -20C to -30C suggest
surface temperatures falling below zero Tuesday evening in the
northern and eastern part of the area in spite of the low level
mixing. Very dry air mass, fresh snow pack, and some of the
longest nights of the year should allow nighttime temperatures
to fall below zero area wide, and to -20F or colder in the
northern valleys Wednesday night and Thursday night
. Daytime
highs may not rise above zero in northern and eastern areas for
a few days!
It is likely that a wind chill headline of some sort
(Advisory or Warning) will be needed for part of the area when
this cold air arrives, most likely in the Tuesday to Wednesday
time period when winds are still fairly strong.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jan 4 2018, 06:34 PM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MaineJay
post Dec 23 2017, 07:13 AM
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Some CPC hazards stuff.

Days 3-7

Attached Image


8-14

Attached Image

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Dec 23 2017, 07:57 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 23 2017, 07:13 AM) *
Some CPC hazards stuff.

Days 3-7

Attached Image


8-14

Attached Image

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

WPC mid-day should be interesting. Not sure CPC updates on weekend? (maybe?)
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NorEaster07
post Dec 23 2017, 08:30 AM
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I see it. biggrin.gif

Current Upper Heights and Surface Temps

Attached Image


Current Upper Heights and 5000' temps

Attached Image

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MaineJay
post Dec 24 2017, 04:50 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As the Christmas storm exits quickly to the northeast, expect a
northwest flow over New England in its wake. Temperatures will
be cold, but not unseasonably so... yet. By Tuesday the leading
edge of some much colder air makes its way into the area from
the north. Downsloping winds on the coastal plain will keep
conditions well mixed there, allowing temperatures to reach the
upper 20s. But the cold air will soon win out, and we will be
stuck in the deep freeze for the rest of the week with a nearly
continual pour of Arctic air into the region
. At its worst, this
cold air mass is capable of daytime highs in the single digits
above and below zero and nighttime lows of 20 below zero or
colder. For the first few days, winds will stay fairly brisk,
adding a much colder wind chill value to the already cold
temperature. Will almost surely need some sort of Wind Chill
headline up (Advisory and/or Warning) as early as Tuesday night
and lasting potentially into the weekend
.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Dec 24 2017, 08:30 AM
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I (and NYC as well) might not see the freezing temp for 2 weeks? blink.gif Lakes and Rivers will really start freezing over now.

Some members have the max getting into the 40s but some have it staying in the teens as well.

Mean temp per EuroEPS is in numbers

Source:

Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Dec 24 2017, 08:31 AM
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EstorilM
post Dec 24 2017, 08:39 AM
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Seems like all the ingredients for a bizarre week of weather have been coming together for a while now, definitely hasn't changed.

Seeing all those random hazards stacked up on top of each other is crazy. blink.gif
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Ahoff
post Dec 24 2017, 09:49 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 23 2017, 07:13 AM) *
Some CPC hazards stuff.

Days 3-7

Attached Image


8-14

Attached Image

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


If that Heavy Snow blob could extend a bit to the west we'll be in business.
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NorEaster07
post Dec 25 2017, 02:11 AM
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Impressive duration

https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/status/945159237071667201

Attached Image


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 25 2017, 02:54 AM
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Pretty impressive considering the clouds and precipitation in the forecast..

QUOTE
Tuesday Occasional snow. High near 18. West wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.Chance of
precipitation is 90%.

Tuesday Night
Occasional snow. Low around 6. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Wednesday
Snow. High near 14. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday Night
Occasional snow. Low around 0. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday
A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 9. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4.

Friday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 13. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 18. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Dec 25 2017, 02:56 AM
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MaineJay
post Dec 25 2017, 03:16 AM
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This week is gonna be tough out there.

Attached Image




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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Solstice
post Dec 25 2017, 11:41 AM
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OKX
QUOTE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models continue in good agreement with a deep polar trough over
the CONUS through the period, but still with subtle differences
in how exactly the polar low over Hudson Bay and associated
heart of an Arctic mass shifts/expands east for mid to late
week. This model spread increases for the weekend.

Main story for mid week into the weekend will be the frigid
temps as pieces of the polar upper low near Hudson Bay
extend/break off eastward through Ontario and Quebec and Arctic
high pressure builds southeastward from central Canada. This
will begin an extended period (Wed-Fri) of daytime highs not
getting much above the lower to mid 20s, and overnight lows in
the teens and single digits. These frigid conditions may
continue into early next week.
Cold of this duration and
magnitude will incrementally increase the potential for
frozen/burst pipes, space heating related mishaps and other cold
weather impacts through the week.


GFS on 12/28 Morning
QUOTE
Attached Image


Hopefully there isn't much sublimation. I want a good primed surface for any upcoming storms laugh.gif.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Dec 25 2017, 11:46 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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WeatherDudeNYC
post Dec 26 2017, 05:03 AM
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Euro has shown NYC going below 0 for 2 straight runs now. Quite rare to see that now a days.


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MaineJay
post Dec 26 2017, 06:02 AM
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When we see an end in sight, I'll update the title. smile.gif

GYX

QUOTE
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
For tonight...the weakening surface boundary gradually sinks to
our south and as the flow becomes more northwest the lake
effect moisture plumes should exit the area as well. Clearing
skies with fresh snowpack and diminishing winds...with many
valley locations going calm should yield lows of zero to 10
below across the mountains and within a few degrees either side
of zero elsewhere. We may see marginal wind chill advisory
criteria tonight across the mountains in areas that don`t
decouple so will issue an advisory with the new public package
this morning. Wednesday will be a breezy and cold day with a
much better chance of seeing widespread wind chill advisory
conditions across the mountains. So the wind chill advisory will
run from tonight through the daytime hours on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level area of low pressure crosses the forecast area
Wednesday night, setting the stage for a second push of arctic
air over the region. Northwest winds increase during a period of
strong cold air advection. H8 temperatures approach -30C over
the northern mountains Wednesday night, allowing surface
temperatures to drop to about 5 below at the coast and 20 below
in the mountains. A developing northwest breeze will allow for
dangerously cold wind chill values ranging from 20 to 25 below
at the coast to 35 below in the north
. Will continue to
highlight this cold threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A few upslope snow flurries on Wednesday will continue on
Thursday as the atmosphere thermal profiles gradually modifies
with time. Nevertheless, decoupling will allow for perhaps the
coldest night of the year Thursday night.


A large upper level system approaches from the Great Lakes
region on Friday. 00Z guidance has shifted the track of this
next system further offshore on Saturday. Latest 00Z Euro allows
for significant cyclogenesis off the southern New England
coastline, brushing our shoreline with a period of snow. Other
models keep the system much weaker and well off the east coast.

By the end of the weekend, a 1060 mb surface high pressure
begins to build into the Plains from Canada. This cold air will
slowly move east early next week.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Dec 26 2017, 10:09 AM
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Current 850mb temps and Upper heights. Wow

Attached Image


Euro forecast for Hartford. WOW. Those are highs not lows! blink.gif And you don't need much liquid for 6"+ snows with those temps. 0.7" @ 20:1 = 12"+

Attached Image

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NorEaster07
post Dec 26 2017, 10:21 AM
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Here's the mid level temp anomaly this morning. Another reinforcing shot comes later this week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0

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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 26 2017, 10:33 AM
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its going to be cold for awhile.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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bingobobbo
post Dec 26 2017, 02:52 PM
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It has been 12 long years since we have fallen to zero in December here--I hope we make it one of these next three nights.


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Vorticity-
post Dec 26 2017, 04:55 PM
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NorEaster07
post Dec 26 2017, 05:01 PM
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Coastal CT forecast on Left. Inland CT on right.

So Averaging these lows for the coast = 10.1F




The lowest 7 day Avg Minimum for end of December for Bridgeport at the coast is 14.1F in 1980.
This is impressive for December. (Records since 1948)

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