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> Jan. 15-18 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Forecasts & OBS
Juniorrr
post Jan 9 2016, 03:29 PM
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As long as the GL/OV folks create a thread after the NE does, its all good smile.gif.

All models showing the potential of a significant system in this period. Not sure what correlations it has but I'll leave that to the crew that knows more about that stuff.

12z Euro below

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jan 15 2016, 02:04 PM
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Juniorrr
post Jan 10 2016, 01:39 AM
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Euro has a small system ahead of the main energy.

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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 10 2016, 08:40 AM
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been waiting this one for days, didn't wanna touch it because of how big of a mess it was but we'll try and sort it out in here now. Some runs have been the perfect track no cold air solution believe it or not, but most runs have been a long duration ed light snow event ending in a huge coastal
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RobB
post Jan 10 2016, 08:40 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 10 2016, 08:40 AM) *
been waiting this one for days, didn't wanna touch it because of how big of a mess it was but we'll try and sort it out in here now. Some runs have been the perfect track no cold air solution believe it or not, but most runs have been a long duration ed light snow event ending in a huge coastal



Yeah this one has been in and out depending on each model run.....

We shall see what happens. My mind is next on our clipper then we shall see what happens here!
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Snow____
post Jan 10 2016, 08:43 AM
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I'll be out of town from the 11th til the 18th.


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RobB
post Jan 10 2016, 08:46 AM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jan 10 2016, 08:43 AM) *
I'll be out of town from the 11th til the 18th.



I think you just increased this regions snow chances smile.gif
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Snow____
post Jan 10 2016, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 10 2016, 09:46 AM) *
I think you just increased this regions snow chances smile.gif

I think so too lol. We'd probably get a nice one when I'm not here to see it.


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J Wassmer
post Jan 10 2016, 11:23 AM
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After how poorly the models handled this weekend's system, it's difficult to put any faith in these maps until at least Thursday.


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RobB
post Jan 10 2016, 11:22 AM
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QUOTE(J Wassmer @ Jan 10 2016, 11:23 AM) *
After how poorly the models handled this weekend's system, it's difficult to put any faith in these maps until at least Thursday.



Oh most definitely.....
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 10 2016, 11:47 AM
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12z gfs, mind you it was non existent the last 3 runs for the area and now it's a appish type storm so who knows.
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RobB
post Jan 10 2016, 11:45 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 10 2016, 11:47 AM) *
12z gfs, mind you it was non existent the last 3 runs for the area and now it's a appish type storm so who knows.



Yeah a late transfer to off the coast from this bugger. Many models during this period have shown a double barrel system transferring off the coast.

Fun fun smile.gif
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 10 2016, 12:00 PM
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By Thursday evening a wave of warmth will be spreading eastwards to eat away at the southern extent of snow cover laid down by the previous cutter/clipper systems.

00z Euro Ensemble mean 850 mb temperature anomaly hour 120
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00z Euro Ensemble mean 850 mb temperature anomaly hour 144
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From Friday evening into Saturday a decent push of Canadian air is expected to push into the midwest while the aforementioned ridge aligns with the east coast.

00z Euro Ensemble mean 850 mb temperature anomaly hour 168
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Therefore, regardless of what each operational model run believes, a winter storm will be tracking through the country on days 6-8 (Jan 16-18). There will be sufficient cold air for a widespread snow event, perhaps aligned near I-70 between MO and OH. A coastal transfer will happen eventually, but I suspect it will only benefit far northern New England (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire).


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Juniorrr
post Jan 10 2016, 12:03 PM
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12z Canadian fwiw

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snowlover2
post Jan 10 2016, 01:22 PM
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12z Euro day 5
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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Jan 10 2016, 01:28 PM
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Day 6

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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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RobB
post Jan 10 2016, 01:26 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jan 10 2016, 01:28 PM) *
Day 6

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Now that is an odd double barrel transfer placement. Not stating it is wrong at all. It is just not a look I would have expected.
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snowlover2
post Jan 10 2016, 01:36 PM
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Day 7
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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 10 2016, 01:51 PM
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no stranger to that track rolleyes.gif
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UTWeather
post Jan 10 2016, 01:53 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 10 2016, 01:51 PM) *
no stranger to that track rolleyes.gif


How exactly does the low track from 144 to 168? I just don't quite understand how it ends up over PA. Sorry guys-slowly learning here!
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Juniorrr
post Jan 10 2016, 02:01 PM
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QUOTE(UTWeather @ Jan 10 2016, 01:53 PM) *
How exactly does the low track from 144 to 168? I just don't quite understand how it ends up over PA. Sorry guys-slowly learning here!

Its transferring(or atleast trying) to off the coast so basically it moves due east... usually we don't see transfers from that far into the lake but weirder things have happened.

I guess the late transfer could result from reinforcing energy behind the system... but im no expert ofc tongue.gif

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