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> Major Hurricane Lane, EPAC/CAT 4/13.6 N, -149.1 W/130 mph G160 mph/STA
idecline
post Aug 15 2018, 07:14 PM
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Tropical Storm Lane is now churning in the Eastern Pacific...forecast to become a Hurricane as soon as Thursday...Hector redux?
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QUOTE
Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Satellite images indicate that Lane is strengthening. The central
dense overcast continues to grow, with a large banding feature in
the western semicircle and expanding outflow in most quadrants.
ASCAT data recently showed maximum winds of about 40 kt, so that
will be the initial wind speed, which is also near a blend of the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

While the latest microwave data indicate that the inner core of Lane
remains loosely organized, the large-scale environment appears to be
favorable for intensification. Low shear, warm waters of 27.5-28C,
and moderate levels of mid-level moisture all support strengthening
at a higher rate than climatology. However, since the inner core is
not well established yet, the intensity forecast will be held just
below rapid strengthening (30 kt in 24 h) for day 1. There is still
a strong signal for that threshold to be met in the day 2-3 period
from the DTOPS rapid intensification index, so the forecast will
remain for a major hurricane to form during that time. This forecast
is close to a blend of the latest NOAA-HCCA and FSSE corrected
consensus models.

The storm continues to move just south of due west, now at about 11
kt. The synoptic pattern is well established with a subtropical
ridge expected to only slightly weaken in the medium-range period,
causing a slight west-northwestward turn in the central Pacific.
While the overall spread has increased in the 1200 UTC guidance, the
latest model consensus has barely budged since the previous
advisory, although it does fit the recent westward trend. The
latest official track forecast is again adjusted in that direction,
close to the eastern Pacific track model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 10.6N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 10.5N 126.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 10.7N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 11.6N 133.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 12.6N 138.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 14.0N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 15.2N 148.2W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


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This post has been edited by idecline: Aug 20 2018, 08:44 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 20 2018, 08:38 PM
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...still churning out in Pacific...
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Attached Image



--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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mainiac
post Aug 21 2018, 08:38 AM
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Surprising how little overall coverage there is of a major hurricane turning toward a US state which is likely to make a very uncomfortable close pass if not landfall. As forecast, it is going to lose intensity as it tracks north-north-west, but could still be a very dangerous storm for the Hawaiian islands.








Lane's a beast right now.

This post has been edited by mainiac: Aug 21 2018, 08:42 AM


--------------------
Snowfall

Current Season: 128.1"

Last Season: 2016-2017 - 129.6"
Best Season: 2007-2008 - 197.8"
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Solstice
post Aug 21 2018, 09:08 AM
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On the new forums we are discussing here:
https://wxdisco.com/forums/topic/124-major-...ph-maintaining/


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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idecline
post Aug 21 2018, 07:07 PM
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...for those of you still on the forums...here is an update... dry.gif
QUOTE
Hurricane Lane Local Watch/Warning Statement
Issued: 21 Aug 2018 12:07 pm HST
New information
CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
None

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Big Island Interior, Big Island North and East, Big Island Summits, Haleakala Summit, Kahoolawe, Kohala, Kona, Lanai Makai, Lanai Mauka, Leeward Haleakala, Maui Central Valley, Maui Leeward West, Maui Windward West, Molokai Leeward, Molokai Windward, South Big Island, and Windward Haleakala

STORM INFORMATION:
Location: 14.3N 153.2W

Situation overview
Hurricane Lane is passing to the south-southeast of the Big Island today and is expected to begin a turn northwest toward the islands tonight and Wednesday. The center of Lane will track dangerously close to, or over the islands Thursday through Saturday. Regardless of the exact track of the center, major impacts are likely in some areas as the hurricane makes it's closest approach. It is important to remember, these impacts can extend far from the center.

The onset of damaging tropical storm force winds on the Big Island could be as early as Wednesday afternoon or evening, with dangerous hurricane force winds possible by Wednesday night. On Maui County, damaging tropical storm force winds could begin as early as Wednesday night, with dangerous hurricane force winds possible starting on Thursday. Hurricane Watches may be needed for other areas as Lane draws closer.

Bands of intense showers and thunderstorms surrounding Lane will begin to overspread the state from south to north, reaching the Big Island late tonight or Wednesday morning. Excessive rainfall is possible which could lead to major flash flooding, landslides and mudslides. Flooding can occur even in areas not usually prone to flooding. Storm total rainfall amounts greater than 20 inches are possible.

Swell generated by Lane will bring very large and rough surf and dangerous rip currents for south and southeast facing shores.

Tornadoes and large waterspouts will be possible associated with Lane, mainly along and to the right of the track of the hurricane.



Attached Image


this is going to be a very close call...between damaging Hurricane force...and unwinding TS force...still a major worry for Hawaii...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 21 2018, 07:08 PM
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...for those of you still on the forums...here is an update... dry.gif
QUOTE
Hurricane Lane Local Watch/Warning Statement
Issued: 21 Aug 2018 12:07 pm HST
New information
CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
None

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Big Island Interior, Big Island North and East, Big Island Summits, Haleakala Summit, Kahoolawe, Kohala, Kona, Lanai Makai, Lanai Mauka, Leeward Haleakala, Maui Central Valley, Maui Leeward West, Maui Windward West, Molokai Leeward, Molokai Windward, South Big Island, and Windward Haleakala

STORM INFORMATION:
Location: 14.3N 153.2W

Situation overview
Hurricane Lane is passing to the south-southeast of the Big Island today and is expected to begin a turn northwest toward the islands tonight and Wednesday. The center of Lane will track dangerously close to, or over the islands Thursday through Saturday. Regardless of the exact track of the center, major impacts are likely in some areas as the hurricane makes it's closest approach. It is important to remember, these impacts can extend far from the center.

The onset of damaging tropical storm force winds on the Big Island could be as early as Wednesday afternoon or evening, with dangerous hurricane force winds possible by Wednesday night. On Maui County, damaging tropical storm force winds could begin as early as Wednesday night, with dangerous hurricane force winds possible starting on Thursday. Hurricane Watches may be needed for other areas as Lane draws closer.

Bands of intense showers and thunderstorms surrounding Lane will begin to overspread the state from south to north, reaching the Big Island late tonight or Wednesday morning. Excessive rainfall is possible which could lead to major flash flooding, landslides and mudslides. Flooding can occur even in areas not usually prone to flooding. Storm total rainfall amounts greater than 20 inches are possible.

Swell generated by Lane will bring very large and rough surf and dangerous rip currents for south and southeast facing shores.

Tornadoes and large waterspouts will be possible associated with Lane, mainly along and to the right of the track of the hurricane.



Attached Image


this is going to be a very close call...between damaging Hurricane force...and unwinding TS force...still a major worry for Hawaii...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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Solstice
post Aug 22 2018, 05:06 PM
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Member No.: 31,816





QUOTE(idecline @ Aug 21 2018, 08:08 PM) *
...for those of you still on the forums...here is an update... dry.gif

Attached Image


this is going to be a very close call...between damaging Hurricane force...and unwinding TS force...still a major worry for Hawaii...


Rainfall also a major problem. Plus the shear should blow most of the heavy rains to the northeastern quadrant... exactly where one doesn't want it.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Its_Miller_A_Tim...
post Aug 23 2018, 12:45 AM
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Surprised more people aren't talking about this on here. The Atlantic is totally dead. Even if Hawaii is far away this is the most action we've seen in a while.

Big Island and Maui could be in for a rough time. I wonder if those wind farms on Maui will make it.

This post has been edited by Its_Miller_A_Time: Aug 23 2018, 12:45 AM
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MaineJay
post Aug 23 2018, 05:15 AM
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QUOTE(Its_Miller_A_Time @ Aug 23 2018, 01:45 AM) *
Surprised more people aren't talking about this on here. The Atlantic is totally dead. Even if Hawaii is far away this is the most action we've seen in a while.

Big Island and Maui could be in for a rough time. I wonder if those wind farms on Maui will make it.



Forum is closing, so we are discussing over at wxdisco.com. smile.gif


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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stretchct
post Aug 24 2018, 07:26 AM
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Just a heads up if you're at Accuweather, the hurricane page named Lane TS Lida?
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--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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NwsScott
post Aug 24 2018, 08:34 AM
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We need to watch the yellow x by Africa, ecmwf ensembles, navy, and cmc show development.
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