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> Possible atlantic Canada storm, Jan 22-24
shane o mac
post Jan 18 2014, 10:35 PM
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I know our first system isnt even out of our area yet but , i keep seeing consenus with the models regarding this system middle of next week ,.
0z Nam http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....h=1&lang=en
18z GFS http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....hh=1&hh=096
12z UK http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....h=1&lang=en
12z canadian model http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....hh=1&hh=090
12z Euro http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....h=1&lang=en

They all are somewhat in a consensus , but might give someone places a good dump of snow . Wait and see scenario , also end of next week seems like another chance of a storm . Back to the deep freeze as well . this is winter my friends we got spoiled with the last 3 weeks with rain and warm now its back to normal . let the ALBERTA clipper train going . wink.gif
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shane o mac
post Jan 19 2014, 01:37 AM
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Looks like all models are on board , 0 gfs is not bad , Euro not sure since i cant see the in between hours , UK is just off shore , CMC just offshore but really stronger for fridays system . Will wait for ensemble members to come out .
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bigmt
post Jan 19 2014, 06:13 AM
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06z GFS @ hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.34K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 63.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 63.59K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Jan 19 2014, 10:12 AM
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12z NAM @ hour 72:

Attached File  nam_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 66.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 84:

Attached File  nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.79K ) Number of downloads: 0
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shane o mac
post Jan 19 2014, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Jan 19 2014, 11:12 AM) *
12z NAM @ hour 72:

Attached File  nam_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 66.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 84:

Attached File  nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.79K ) Number of downloads: 0

This pattern is epic for us here in Atlantic Canada when it comes to Nor Easters , with all those alberta clippers moving along , once they hit the Atlantic ocean it only takes one to blow up . so with that being said this system for mid week might not be that big of a storm , but there are going to be multiple opportunities .. For this mid week system 10 cm system unless it intensifies doenst look like that right now but that can change .
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bigmt
post Jan 19 2014, 12:26 PM
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12z GFS @ hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.42K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 63.71K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Jan 19 2014, 05:49 PM
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18z GFS @ hour 66:

Attached File  gfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 78:

Attached File  gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 63.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 90:

Attached File  gfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 63.36K ) Number of downloads: 0
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 19 2014, 06:20 PM
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The surface freezing line is abit too close for comfort (the purple line labelled "32") for NS, and crosses southeast half of the island portion of NL. But looks like it could dump a bit of precip...

Attached File  3hap_sfc_f066.png ( 92.02K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  3hap_sfc_f072.png ( 93.97K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  3hap_sfc_f078.png ( 91.12K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  3hap_sfc_f084.png ( 91.11K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  3hap_sfc_f090.png ( 90.6K ) Number of downloads: 0
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shane o mac
post Jan 20 2014, 01:28 AM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Jan 19 2014, 07:20 PM) *
The surface freezing line is abit too close for comfort (the purple line labelled "32") for NS, and crosses southeast half of the island portion of NL. But looks like it could dump a bit of precip...

Attached File  3hap_sfc_f066.png ( 92.02K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  3hap_sfc_f072.png ( 93.97K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  3hap_sfc_f078.png ( 91.12K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  3hap_sfc_f084.png ( 91.11K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  3hap_sfc_f090.png ( 90.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


Euro is on board , CMC is on board GFS and NAM and UK , so its safe to say there is going to be a storm to deal with mid week , how strong and what precip types is yet to be seen , but some models suggest 30cm+ with strong winds . Are typical Nor Easter love this pattern we are in !
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bigmt
post Jan 20 2014, 05:34 AM
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00z GGEM @ hour 52:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014012000_052.png ( 44.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 58:

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Hour 64:

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Hour 70:

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Hour 76:

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48-hour snow @ hour 96:

Attached File  SN_048_096_0000.gif ( 120K ) Number of downloads: 2


Rain:

Attached File  RN_048_096_0000.gif ( 135.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


06z GFS @ hour 54:

Attached File  gfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 66:

Attached File  gfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.57K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 78:

Attached File  gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 63.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


48-hour snowfall @ hour 78:

Attached File  CAN_ASNOW48_sfc_078.gif ( 40.43K ) Number of downloads: 1
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newfiebrit
post Jan 20 2014, 07:19 AM
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I had high hopes the other day but gone too far West now I hope this isn't the pattern for the rest of the month, the next storm on Friday needs to stay off shore then it can nudge in West a bit if it wants! We did have 3/4 cm's overnight so at least white out for now though will be shortlived.
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bigmt
post Jan 20 2014, 07:50 AM
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EC - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=ns

QUOTE
A winter storm could affect the Maritimes on Wednesday.

A strong low pressure system is expected to develop over the U.S. Eastern Seaboard Tuesday and track northeastward passing near the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Wednesday. This disturbance has the potential to bring significant snow, strong winds and blowing snow to the Maritimes. A slight shift in the track of the system could also increase the possibility of mixed precipitation over parts of the province.

While it is too early to predict with certainty any precipitation amounts for this event, Environment Canada will continue to monitor the development of this storm providing updates as new information becomes available.
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bigmt
post Jan 20 2014, 10:41 AM
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TWN - http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/arti...possible/19729/

Attached File  thumb.jpeg ( 33.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
"A sharp cold front going through today may bring reduced visibility and blowing snow at times, although overall significant snow is not expected with amounts generally ranging from two to five centimetres," says Weather Network meteorologist Monica Vaswani. "Temperatures will fall through the day behind the front."

Forecasters are also keeping their eye on a bigger system expected to impact Atlantic Canada mid-week.

"This will likely be a winter storm with significant snowfall accumulating along with blowing snow being a large issue," Vaswani warns. "The European model is hinting at some areas seeing as much as 10 inches or 25 cm although this is still a few days out."

Again there may be some mixing in the Avalon with the threat of freezing rain, but otherwise, mostly a snow event.
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bigmt
post Jan 20 2014, 12:28 PM
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12z RGEM @ hour 42:

Attached File  I_nw_r1_EST_2014012012_042.png ( 57.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 48:

Attached File  I_nw_r1_EST_2014012012_048.png ( 59.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


GGEM @ hour 54:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014012012_054.png ( 43.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 60:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_AMERICA_2014012012_060.png ( 48.9K ) Number of downloads: 1
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shane o mac
post Jan 20 2014, 12:32 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Jan 20 2014, 01:28 PM) *
12z RGEM @ hour 42:

Attached File  I_nw_r1_EST_2014012012_042.png ( 57.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 48:

Attached File  I_nw_r1_EST_2014012012_048.png ( 59.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


GGEM @ hour 54:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_EST_2014012012_054.png ( 43.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 60:

Attached File  I_nw_g1_AMERICA_2014012012_060.png ( 48.9K ) Number of downloads: 1



Im not liking the westward trend on the GFS/NAM.
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bigmt
post Jan 20 2014, 12:59 PM
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12z GGEM total snow @ hour 72:

Attached File  SN_000_072_0000close.gif ( 88.02K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  SN_000_072_0000.gif ( 123.71K ) Number of downloads: 2


Total rain:

Attached File  RN_000_072_0000.gif ( 72.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  RN_000_072_0000far.gif ( 145.65K ) Number of downloads: 0
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newfiebrit
post Jan 20 2014, 01:11 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Jan 20 2014, 03:02 PM) *
Im not liking the westward trend on the GFS/NAM.


Still looks pretty good for you and Western NL.

Amazing how many of the storms trend further and further West, it can look good several days out then as we get nearer it goes further West, happens alot. What's the chances it wont happen for Fridays system which needs to trend West else will stay offshore!
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shane o mac
post Jan 20 2014, 01:49 PM
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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Jan 20 2014, 02:11 PM) *
Still looks pretty good for you and Western NL.

Amazing how many of the storms trend further and further West, it can look good several days out then as we get nearer it goes further West, happens alot. What's the chances it wont happen for Fridays system which needs to trend West else will stay offshore!

I dont even see the storm for friday on any of the models where did it go mellow.gif
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bigmt
post Jan 20 2014, 02:02 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Jan 20 2014, 01:49 PM) *
I dont even see the storm for friday on any of the models where did it go mellow.gif


12z GFS @ hour 102:

Attached File  gfs_namer_102_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 67.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


12z ECMWF @ hour 102:

Attached File  ecmwf_slp_precip_labrador_18.png ( 105.37K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Jan 20 2014, 03:16 PM
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EC with winter storm watches for NS and PEI -
http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=ns
http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=pei

QUOTE
High snowfall amounts, and strong winds giving blowing snow to parts of the province for Wednesday.

This is an alert to the potential development of dangerous winter weather conditions in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..listen for updated statements.

A strong low pressure system forecast to develop over the U.S. Eastern Seaboard Tuesday will track northeastward passing near the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Wednesday. This disturbance will bring significant snowfall amounts, strong winds and blowing snow to Nova Scotia. A slight shift in the track of the system gives the possibility of mixed precipitation over eastern parts of the province.

While it is too early to predict with certainty any precipitation amounts for this event, Environment Canada will continue to monitor the development of this storm, providing updates as new information becomes available.


SWS for NFLD - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=nl

QUOTE
Winter weather expected Wednesday.

A low pressure system is forecast to develop along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday and then intensify as it tracks northeastward to cross Newfoundland overnight Wednesday night. The low will continue out-to-sea early Thursday.

Snow will spread across the island in advance of this system during the day on Wednesday, but will change through ice pellets and freezing rain to rain over eastern areas as temperatures rise, with some locations potentially receiving 2 to 4 hours of freezing rain before the changeover. Rainfall amounts with this system may reach 25 millimetres over southeastern parts of Newfoundland before tapering off Wednesday evening.

There is currently some uncertainty regarding the exact track of this system, but latest indications suggest areas to the west of its track, including the west coast, and parts of Central Newfoundland, may receive significant amounts of snowfall accumulation, with totals in excess of 15 centimetres. The snow will taper off Wednesday night into early Thursday as the low moves away.

In addition, a strong southwesterly flow will develop over Eastern Newfoundland in the wake of this low late Wednesday night, with gusts potentially reaching warning criteria. Strong winds will then likely persist into Thursday morning before easing during the day.

Furthermore, forecast guidance is indicating this system may push higher than normal water levels onshore along the South Coast and southern parts of the Avalon Peninsula Wednesday night.


This post has been edited by bigmt: Jan 20 2014, 03:17 PM
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