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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
StL weatherjunki...
post Sep 18 2017, 11:25 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Sep 18 2017, 11:57 PM) *
It also doesn't prove skill/merit is lacking.

His method predicted X and then Z occurred. Proof enough for me.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Sep 18 2017, 11:26 PM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 18 2017, 11:40 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 18 2017, 06:42 PM) *
My money is on well above normal Siberian snowfall because the arctic sea ice is once again well below normal. Ice extent area is very similar to both 2015 and 2016; both years were characterized by rapid expansion of snow and ice cover across Siberia during the last week of September and first couple weeks of October. I doubt this year will be much different.

I'm surprised to see Siberian snow cover mentioned this season after such a flop last season. Doesn't appear to be much skill there.


Never really liked the idea but surely has a influence on weather patterns and how they will evolve in time just as you use soil moisture for making your forecasts the ever changing amount of moisture content in a region can have large changes in atmospheric placement and flow.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Sep 19 2017, 07:59 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Sep 19 2017, 12:40 AM) *
Never really liked the idea but surely has a influence on weather patterns and how they will evolve in time just as you use soil moisture for making your forecasts the ever changing amount of moisture content in a region can have large changes in atmospheric placement and flow.

I have no doubt that the rate of expansion and overall snow cover in Siberia has a climatologically relevant impact across the entire hemisphere. I have many doubts that the physical link between Siberia and North America is sufficiently well understood to make bold forecasts such as Judah Cohen's.

I think the primary issue with Cohen's theory is that he's essentially forecasting the mode of the Arctic Oscillation. I would be okay with his method if that's where his forecasts stopped, but instead he's taken the next step to make a temperature forecasts for a separate continent several months in advance based on his AO projection. Furthermore, climate change has important implications for Siberian snow cover and I don't think I've seen any mention from him as to how that could skew his predictions.

However, the direct link between soil moisture and boundary layer conditions has been discussed in literature for decades (Walsh et al. 1985). Moist soils -> more evaporation -> cooler temperatures. Conversely, dry soils -> more conduction -> warmer temperatures. The physical basis is clearly defined and the results have been reasonably accurate.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Sep 19 2017, 08:05 AM


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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OSNW3
post Sep 19 2017, 01:23 PM
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QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ Sep 18 2017, 06:47 AM) *
Still need to get that St. Louis/Jefferson City/Kansas City/Carbondale, IL, to Indianapolis and Ohio plots for me, but especially that St. Louis plot, climate is so different down here.

Also your site shows a cold start to October for most of the eastern two thirds of the nation and warm to very warm second half for much of the lower 48 especially west of the Appalachians, essentially similar to September's layout. Not a fan of the bone dry Mid-Mississippi River Valley into first half of October either, but does improve towards the final 10 days of October. But still Grrr... Is this a trend for the season?


Ah yes. STL. I will look into plotting it and something in IL between STL and IND. It's not difficult to do, I just need to remember to do it. Lol. My apologies.

Yes, I have noticed the yin-yang look to the October outlook. I archive the analogs used to plot the ESRL style maps if you want to know what dates are being composited. I do not know about it being a trend. I suppose I would analyze the AA1D (annual accumulated daily average) frequency for trends...


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OSNW3
post Sep 19 2017, 01:31 PM
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Latest RRWT snowfall projections for my backyard and beyond. No snowmageddon for DCA or NYC unfortunately? We shall see.

forecast map


forecast list


station location map


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Southern Missour...
post Sep 19 2017, 01:41 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 18 2017, 11:25 PM) *
His method predicted X and then Z occurred. Proof enough for me.


And he explained why.... unless you can,prove his explanation is false.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Sep 19 2017, 05:50 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Sep 19 2017, 02:41 PM) *
And he explained why.... unless you can,prove his explanation is false.

I explained my criticisms of his work very clearly several posts above. His eyes are bigger than his stomach.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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weather_boy2010
post Sep 19 2017, 09:28 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 19 2017, 01:31 PM) *
Latest RRWT snowfall projections for my backyard and beyond. No snowmageddon for DCA or NYC unfortunately? We shall see.

forecast map


forecast list


station location map


You know, for a hot minute there I was a little excited for the upcoming winter in thinking that things would be better than last year. Unfortunately if this verifies, it will be an even bigger suck-fest in my backyard than the last two years. It may be time to look into moving north...

QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 19 2017, 05:50 PM) *
I explained my criticisms of his work very clearly several posts above. His eyes are bigger than his stomach.


Glad to see you posting again, STL! I always look forward to your posts. Though, I truly hope you're wrong about the '99-'00 analog, that was another crummy winter around here.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Yesterday, 06:50 AM
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#natgas is a very widely used # in the stock world, particularly in those invested in stocks that have a direct correlation to natural gas. I'm on a stock message board (stocktwits) and models long and short term are posted allllll the time because its a 90% correlation to the weather. While im sure those bullish on natgas stocks would be more inclined to post such a model, I think that hashtag is more aimed at informational, much like we do on here.

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grace
post Yesterday, 09:11 AM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Sep 19 2017, 09:28 PM) *
You know, for a hot minute there I was a little excited for the upcoming winter in thinking that things would be better than last year. Unfortunately if this verifies, it will be an even bigger suck-fest in my backyard than the last two years. It may be time to look into moving north...
Glad to see you posting again, STL! I always look forward to your posts. Though, I truly hope you're wrong about the '99-'00 analog, that was another crummy winter around here.



Keep in mind RRWT has been undergoing a lot of changes the last few weeks. It is La Nina....and it's not finished changing.

Also keep in mind the coming westerlies that will bring temporary Nino type pattern will play havoc with models in the short but especially the long-range.

**Keep hope alive!** tongue.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Yesterday, 09:11 AM
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OSNW3
post Yesterday, 12:09 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 20 2017, 06:50 AM) *
#natgas is a very widely used # in the stock world, particularly in those invested in stocks that have a direct correlation to natural gas. I'm on a stock message board (stocktwits) and models long and short term are posted allllll the time because its a 90% correlation to the weather. While im sure those bullish on natgas stocks would be more inclined to post such a model, I think that hashtag is more aimed at informational, much like we do on here.


The process of purchasing natural gas is fascinating. Futures anyone? Recent RRWT 2mT trend suggesting two distinct cool downs this coming JFM for my backyard and surrounding areas.





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OSNW3
post Yesterday, 12:23 PM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Sep 19 2017, 09:28 PM) *
You know, for a hot minute there I was a little excited for the upcoming winter in thinking that things would be better than last year. Unfortunately if this verifies, it will be an even bigger suck-fest in my backyard than the last two years. It may be time to look into moving north...


QUOTE(grace @ Sep 20 2017, 09:11 AM) *
Keep in mind RRWT has been undergoing a lot of changes the last few weeks. It is La Nina....and it's not finished changing.

Also keep in mind the coming westerlies that will bring temporary Nino type pattern will play havoc with models in the short but especially the long-range.

**Keep hope alive!** tongue.gif


Keep hope alive! Lol. Speaking of changes, if you notice the BeOP frequency, it suggests a lot of action beginning soon and heading through mid October. Storms to keep notes on I suspect as they could become "signature" value. wink.gif


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weather_boy2010
post Yesterday, 12:38 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 20 2017, 12:23 PM) *
Keep hope alive! Lol. Speaking of changes, if you notice the BeOP frequency, it suggests a lot of action beginning soon and heading through mid October. Storms to keep notes on I suspect as they could become "signature" value. wink.gif


The biggest drawback in my life is that I am not a patient person and want to know it all NOW! If you say to keep hope alive though, then alive it shall be!

Forgive my idiocy, but what is the BeOP frequency?
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OSNW3
post Yesterday, 01:34 PM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Sep 20 2017, 12:38 PM) *
The biggest drawback in my life is that I am not a patient person and want to know it all NOW! If you say to keep hope alive though, then alive it shall be!

Forgive my idiocy, but what is the BeOP frequency?


Lol. Nonsense.

BeOP or Best Oscillation Period
Find predominant longitude.
Find daily annual average frequency of predominant longitude.
Find top oscillation from the past nine oscillations of predominant longitude.

Example below from this image.


BeOP is 300. I will suspect that the average frequency of region 150-190 longitude is 60 days. I believe 300 days would be the fourth oscillation?

This chart confirms my suspicions.


I just looked at Today's run. Even more BeOP promise for activity as we head into October. smile.gif

Also, I hope this makes sense. Lol.
Fun: https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/910574282870329346

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Yesterday, 01:40 PM


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idecline
post Yesterday, 02:04 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 20 2017, 12:23 PM) *
Keep hope alive! Lol. Speaking of changes, if you notice the BeOP frequency, it suggests a lot of action beginning soon and heading through mid October. Storms to keep notes on I suspect as they could become "signature" value. wink.gif


...just a note from an 'observational and anecdotal' 'forecaster'...meaning idee's inanities... dry.gif

last winter the eastern Pacific high pressures all seemed to be orientated in an E-W kind of look with weakness at the coast...the centers of pressure seemed to be located further west than what my recollection of previous years looked like...sort of like the so-called 'Banana highs' over the Atlantic...

...with this trough coming into the Pacific Northwest in a big hurry...it 'anecdotally' seems like a strong Pacific jet may be the big player again this winter...with a La Nada 'redux' to boot...idee sees wet, wet winter for West...

...above based on poster non-linear accumulation and regurgitation of other's incisive study in 'forecasts'...

Warning: the above is all pure conjecture...based upon nothing more than idee's whimsical weather world... huh.gif

Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 648.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif ...can you say 'amplification'...?


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weather_boy2010
post Yesterday, 07:22 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 20 2017, 01:34 PM) *
Lol. Nonsense.

BeOP or Best Oscillation Period
Find predominant longitude.
Find daily annual average frequency of predominant longitude.
Find top oscillation from the past nine oscillations of predominant longitude.

Example below from this image.


BeOP is 300. I will suspect that the average frequency of region 150-190 longitude is 60 days. I believe 300 days would be the fourth oscillation?

This chart confirms my suspicions.


I just looked at Today's run. Even more BeOP promise for activity as we head into October. smile.gif

Also, I hope this makes sense. Lol.
Fun: https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/910574282870329346


Not particularly. Lol. That's okay though, I'll learn as I go and maybe someday it'll make sense to me!

QUOTE(idecline @ Sep 20 2017, 02:04 PM) *
...just a note from an 'observational and anecdotal' 'forecaster'...meaning idee's inanities... dry.gif

last winter the eastern Pacific high pressures all seemed to be orientated in an E-W kind of look with weakness at the coast...the centers of pressure seemed to be located further west than what my recollection of previous years looked like...sort of like the so-called 'Banana highs' over the Atlantic...

...with this trough coming into the Pacific Northwest in a big hurry...it 'anecdotally' seems like a strong Pacific jet may be the big player again this winter...with a La Nada 'redux' to boot...idee sees wet, wet winter for West...

...above based on poster non-linear accumulation and regurgitation of other's incisive study in 'forecasts'...

Warning: the above is all pure conjecture...based upon nothing more than idee's whimsical weather world... huh.gif

Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 648.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif ...can you say 'amplification'...?


Omg, if we have another winter like last year...
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Sep 20 2017, 03:04 PM) *
...just a note from an 'observational and anecdotal' 'forecaster'...meaning idee's inanities... dry.gif

last winter the eastern Pacific high pressures all seemed to be orientated in an E-W kind of look with weakness at the coast...the centers of pressure seemed to be located further west than what my recollection of previous years looked like...sort of like the so-called 'Banana highs' over the Atlantic...

...with this trough coming into the Pacific Northwest in a big hurry...it 'anecdotally' seems like a strong Pacific jet may be the big player again this winter...with a La Nada 'redux' to boot...idee sees wet, wet winter for West...

...above based on poster non-linear accumulation and regurgitation of other's incisive study in 'forecasts'...

Warning: the above is all pure conjecture...based upon nothing more than idee's whimsical weather world... huh.gif

Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 648.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif ...can you say 'amplification'...?


There's at least growing interest in the idea that the unusually sharp SST gradient in the north Pacific led to the very strong/wet Pacific jet last winter. Unfortunately that's really not something we can forecast very well. I think if that comes back this winter, it'll do more damage than it'll do good... which is weird to say about California after that insane drought.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 09:07 PM


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