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> LRC 2012-2013, Interest Is Growing!
OSNW3
post Jan 7 2013, 09:20 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 5 2013, 01:07 PM) *
Calling LRC experts. Is it possible a cycle would be 30 days?

Reason why i ask is Im noticing a similarity with this next big storm cutting into the Great Lakes around the 13th. Seems like that happened at the beginning of December. We also had a SouthEast Ridge then too I believe.

Do you guys notice any similarities or patterns from a month ago?


If you think of the cycle as a standing wave, there will be harmonics within it. You are likely seeing the 3/4 harmonic. Which, doing the math would be...

52*0.75=39

That is not out of the question.


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OSNW3
post Jan 7 2013, 09:22 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jan 6 2013, 04:27 PM) *
Went surfing around OSNW3's LRC site a couple days back (great site, may I add), and found Chicago's est. snowfall for this winter was 12 inches. Considering ORD has roughly 1 and a half inches, such a forecast isn't that far-fetched.


Glad you like it Snowman. I use it all the time. I definitely need to expand to other regions... because it's just so fun. The algorithms based on the theory did an alright job in December.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory...maps-sf-rd.html


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OSNW3
post Jan 7 2013, 09:33 AM
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Back when I tossed the numbers into the correct format for the map, we already knew about this 'warm-up'. Good to see something verifying based on the theory.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory...aps-events.html

The best part of the cycle is upcoming (well up here at least) and I am looking forward to more precip chances in the form of snow end of Jan beginning of Feb.



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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 7 2013, 09:35 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jan 7 2013, 09:33 AM) *
Back when I tossed the numbers into the correct format for the map, we already knew about this 'warm-up'. Good to see something verifying based on the theory.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory...aps-events.html

The best part of the cycle is upcoming (well up here at least) and I am looking forward to more precip chances in the form of snow end of Jan beginning of Feb.



indeed...it will be interesting to see how this LR blast of arctic air matches up looking at the jan 11th-16th area.
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jdrenken
post Jan 7 2013, 09:52 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jan 7 2013, 08:20 AM) *
If you think of the cycle as a standing wave, there will be harmonics within it. You are likely seeing the 3/4 harmonic. Which, doing the math would be...

52*0.75=39

That is not out of the question.


That is still 9 days off what he was trying to link.


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OSNW3
post Jan 7 2013, 10:09 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 7 2013, 08:35 AM) *
indeed...it will be interesting to see how this LR blast of arctic air matches up looking at the jan 11th-16th area.


There are certain parts of this cycle (cycle 2) compared to the past cycle (cycle 1) where the extremes ying yanged themselves. Sandy had a huge influence on the particular period of the cycle it occurred in. That alone threw a wrench in some of the midwest trends. Cleveland snowfall for example and the system that buried south central WI...


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OSNW3
post Jan 7 2013, 10:10 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 7 2013, 08:52 AM) *
That is still 9 days off what he was trying to link.


No matter. It's all words. I like data, then maps, then words. smile.gif


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jdrenken
post Jan 7 2013, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jan 7 2013, 09:10 AM) *
No matter. It's all words. I like data, then maps, then words. smile.gif


My point exactly. wink.gif


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OSNW3
post Jan 7 2013, 11:37 PM
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I had an inquiry to add KMCI to the Trends. It has been done. LOL.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory...s/1213-MCI.html


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jdrenken
post Jan 8 2013, 05:40 PM
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958mb-961mb in Bering Sea
Attached File(s)
Attached File  96hr_12JAN13_Forecast.JPG ( 347.81K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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OSNW3
post Jan 10 2013, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 8 2013, 04:40 PM) *
958mb-961mb in Bering Sea


2.5 weeks ish around Jan-31 ish.

20121017


20121209


The Calendar helped make this comparison simple and quick.

Also, as we move in and out of each cycle (granted, anyone can bookend each cycle, I chose the dates in the Calendar) the cycle duration is "breathing" and today duration analysts had around 51 days through entire GFS model run. But I would expect as we move into the 'middle' of the cycle the duration will once again be near 53. We'll see. FUN.


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jdrenken
post Jan 10 2013, 05:11 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jan 10 2013, 04:00 PM) *
2.5 weeks ish around Jan-31 ish.

20121017


20121209


The Calendar helped make this comparison simple and quick.

Also, as we move in and out of each cycle (granted, anyone can bookend each cycle, I chose the dates in the Calendar) the cycle duration is "breathing" and today duration analysts had around 51 days through entire GFS model run. But I would expect as we move into the 'middle' of the cycle the duration will once again be near 53. We'll see. FUN.


Winner, winner...chicken dinner!


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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andyhb
post Jan 10 2013, 09:14 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 10 2013, 02:11 PM) *
Winner, winner...chicken dinner!

This trough in a day and a half would be a monster during the Spring...
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Apo Agathos
post Jan 11 2013, 10:29 AM
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Is it too early to make predictions for Spring Storm outbreaks? wink.gif
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Regionrat
post Jan 11 2013, 02:22 PM
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Does the LRC support an extended cold snap (seven or more days?) for the Midwest over the next 10-15 days? Based on OSWN'S ORD page, a short cold snap is forecast, but then it's right back to above normal temperatures. Is it correct to say that the LRC does not support a brutal cold snap lasting several days in the Eastern US? Would the recent SSW event, if the cold does come to fruition, be viewed in LRC terms in a light similiar to a tropical system? It bucks the short-term trend, but after it passes, the LRC is back to normal?


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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 11 2013, 09:55 PM
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Has anyone here made comparisons with the pattern for the next 7 days to the early October time frame? There's actually some interesting similarities between the two, ranging from the several waves of low pressure along the cold front to the Canadian cold surge focusing over the north central and interior NE US.
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jdrenken
post Jan 12 2013, 02:00 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 11 2013, 08:55 PM) *
Has anyone here made comparisons with the pattern for the next 7 days to the early October time frame? There's actually some interesting similarities between the two, ranging from the several waves of low pressure along the cold front to the Canadian cold surge focusing over the north central and interior NE US.


The 1st cycle is a match to what we are seeing between the 13-18th.


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It's a work in progress!

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OSNW3
post Jan 12 2013, 10:54 AM
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QUOTE(Apo Agathos @ Jan 11 2013, 09:29 AM) *
Is it too early to make predictions for Spring Storm outbreaks? wink.gif


Absolutely not. I did the other day. smile.gif

https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/288856555540058112


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OSNW3
post Jan 12 2013, 11:04 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 11 2013, 08:55 PM) *
Has anyone here made comparisons with the pattern for the next 7 days to the early October time frame? There's actually some interesting similarities between the two, ranging from the several waves of low pressure along the cold front to the Canadian cold surge focusing over the north central and interior NE US.


In my research of the theory the past few years I've noted some crazy pattern ideas. Once such is that "every other" cycle resembles one another better than the previous. Another idea is finding the "cycle center" providing a thought that similar seasonal jet position cycles would share commonalities. These ideas are documented in my blog which acts as a journal of learning the LRC through research, analysis, and attempts at forecasting. Just loads of fun. wink.gif


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OSNW3
post Jan 12 2013, 11:10 AM
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QUOTE(Regionrat @ Jan 11 2013, 01:22 PM) *
Does the LRC support an extended cold snap (seven or more days?) for the Midwest over the next 10-15 days? Based on OSWN'S ORD page, a short cold snap is forecast, but then it's right back to above normal temperatures. Is it correct to say that the LRC does not support a brutal cold snap lasting several days in the Eastern US? Would the recent SSW event, if the cold does come to fruition, be viewed in LRC terms in a light similiar to a tropical system? It bucks the short-term trend, but after it passes, the LRC is back to normal?


I would say my algorithm based on the theory does not support "an extended cold snap (seven or more days?) for the Midwest over the next 10-15 days?". However, there is an extend period of time in this years cycle that does show signs it could harbor a cold snap... likely Feb 5-18.

Nothing is proven. It's just a theory. We'll see what happens.


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