Caribbean Tropical Development 2012, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs Options

[shane o mac]

The gfs has it it going threw the mid atlantic at hour 204 ;p

[shane o mac]

Does anybody got any of the latest model rusn ?

[Undertakerson]

Starts near the Antilles and moves on up to this scenario (Euro shown)





http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html

Hello to my namesake storm?

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 9 2012, 03:54 PM

[blizzardOf96]

The european is showing a storm of tropical origin developing in close to the east coast in the long range. Currently a cold front is off the east coast and is forecast to move eastwards and leave some energy behind north of the bahamas. This energy will interact with an incoming trough and spin something up along the southeast coast. This could be a potential threat along the east coast. Considering how the model has been performing lately this gives me reason to at least monitor this situation. Ensemble support is there and the euro has been showing this for a couple runs. A more detailed analysis is found on my blog homepage.

[EstorilM]

Undertakerson - I was waiting for you to jump in here!


... I do have a funny feeling about this storm though, kinda weird.

The european is showing a storm of tropical origin developing in close to the east coast in the long range. Currently a cold front is off the east coast and is forecast to move eastwards and leave some energy behind north of the bahamas. This energy will interact with an incoming trough and spin something up along the southeast coast. This could be a potential threat along the east coast. Considering how the model has been performing lately this gives me reason to at least monitor this situation. Ensemble support is there and the euro has been showing this for a couple runs. A more detailed analysis is found on my blog homepage.

Great blog post! - I have a little more respect for the potential now, as I had only seen some of the basic graphics which hinted at "something".. "over there" lol.

This post has been edited by EstorilM: Nov 9 2012, 06:44 PM

[shane o mac]

Undertakerson - I was waiting for you to jump in here!
... I do have a funny feeling about this storm though, kinda weird.
Great blog post! - I have a little more respect for the potential now, as I had only seen some of the basic graphics which hinted at "something".. "over there" lol.

I may say i do to and just maybe i wont miss it here in nova scotia

[blizzardOf96]

The 0z CMC is on board with a very robust system off the northeast coast. The euro continues to show a system off the east coast but a bit weaker. The difference in the modelling is due to the cold front which moves off the east coast this wednesday the 14th. The GFS has a stronger cold front with more interaction between the energy left back by our trailing front currently sitting off the east coast. This causes the energy to get pulled north into atlantic canada. The CMC has a weaker trough that misses the interaction with the energy int he atlantic and as a result the energy gets captured by another trough and gets pulled into the east coast of the u.s. The euro has a similar solution but sweeps away the initial energy, leaving another piece off the coast and pulling it into the trough off the east coast. This produces a storm off the northeast coast as well. Very interesting situation evolving, something that I will continue to watch.
CMC at hour 204:

CMC at hour 240:


Euro at 216:

240:

GFS at hour 144 notice the low near newfoundland:


This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Nov 10 2012, 08:17 AM

[shane o mac]

Anybody see this ? or is it worth mentioning . also move to the proper location .
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF
NECESSARY.