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> March 1st-2nd Winter Storm For Southern ON, Will this finally be the "the big one"?
travis3000
post Feb 28 2018, 09:15 AM
Post #1




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From: Alliston,Ontario
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Im going to do it guys.... take the chances and hopefully not jinx it. I have a feeling that this one is going to happen for someone. Lets move the discussion over here. I will post 12z models in here!


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Feb 28 2018, 09:25 AM
Post #2




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Brett Anderson has some tweets out saying 20-30cm in Niagara to Hamilton corridor. A slight north track would shift these numbers into Mississauga and Toronto. He favors the Euro and NAM solutions.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Feb 28 2018, 09:41 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 3,959
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From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





12z NAM at hour 37 has heavy snow in SW ON from Windsor to London to Hamilton.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Feb 28 2018, 09:46 AM
Post #4




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Joined: 12-February 13
From: Vaughan, Ontario
Member No.: 28,279





Attached File  Beauty.png ( 455.07K ) Number of downloads: 22


I like this, please move 50km north
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snowgeek93
post Feb 28 2018, 09:54 AM
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From: Thornhill, Ontario
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Looking good! Push this baby north a bit and we're in business here rolleyes.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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travis3000
post Feb 28 2018, 10:05 AM
Post #6




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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 28 2018, 09:54 AM) *
Looking good! Push this baby north a bit and we're in business here rolleyes.gif


You're already in business, that map shows you getting 25cm tongue.gif


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Feb 28 2018, 10:09 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 3,959
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





12z NAM

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_02_28_at_10.08.02_AM.jpg ( 631.34K ) Number of downloads: 18


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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puttin
post Feb 28 2018, 10:12 AM
Post #8




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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 28 2018, 10:09 AM) *
12z NAM

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_02_28_at_10.08.02_AM.jpg ( 631.34K ) Number of downloads: 18


When is the worst of this to fall? Bad commute Friday morning you think?
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robv1989
post Feb 28 2018, 10:16 AM
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the one image showed kuchera ratios, what ratios do you think we would get? I'm in the 15 or 16 inch range right.now lol...thats awesome but my drive to and from work is another story 😂
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travis3000
post Feb 28 2018, 10:32 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





Go with 10:1 ratios, temps will be near -1C or 0C , so ratios will not be any higher than 10:1. Given the warm/wet ground, warmer initial temps, I'd even go with 9:1 but thats just me.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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players1
post Feb 28 2018, 10:39 AM
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Posts: 372
Joined: 6-March 08
From: Stevensville Ontario
Member No.: 14,195





good chance for the best storm in a long time down this way, and I'm going to miss it being in the Bahamas!
I'm sure it'll all be melted or close to it when i return as well.
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travis3000
post Feb 28 2018, 10:53 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 3,959
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





12 GFS has caved to the rest!

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_02_28_at_10.50.53_AM.jpg ( 522.08K ) Number of downloads: 16


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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players1
post Feb 28 2018, 10:54 AM
Post #13




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buffalo storm watch.

They are calling 5-10" of snow for now.
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snowgeek93
post Feb 28 2018, 11:20 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 28 2018, 10:05 AM) *
You're already in business, that map shows you getting 25cm tongue.gif

laugh.gif Never hurts to be logical. I mean, models have never let us down right?


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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puttin
post Feb 28 2018, 11:35 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 28 2018, 11:20 AM) *
laugh.gif Never hurts to be logical. I mean, models have never let us down right?


I think the bubble just burst if that last map is true...for York Region anyways...

This post has been edited by puttin: Feb 28 2018, 11:39 AM
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robv1989
post Feb 28 2018, 11:38 AM
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Is it just me or does the heaviest snow seem to have shifted more into the US on the latest models?

12 z CMC has around 7 inches for hamilton area now.

Roughly 6 inches on the latest RGEM.

This post has been edited by robv1989: Feb 28 2018, 11:40 AM
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Apocalypse
post Feb 28 2018, 12:01 PM
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QUOTE(robv1989 @ Feb 28 2018, 11:38 AM) *
Is it just me or does the heaviest snow seem to have shifted more into the US on the latest models?

12 z CMC has around 7 inches for hamilton area now.

Roughly 6 inches on the latest RGEM.


There does seem to be a shift southeast from the 06z to the 12z.

Better not all shift into NY state like last time. laugh.gif
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robv1989
post Feb 28 2018, 12:15 PM
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QUOTE(Apocalypse @ Feb 28 2018, 12:01 PM) *
There does seem to be a shift southeast from the 06z to the 12z.

Better not all shift into NY state like last time. laugh.gif


We might have to all become storm chasers and just drive over the border to get some snow biggrin.gif
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puttin
post Feb 28 2018, 12:57 PM
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QUOTE(robv1989 @ Feb 28 2018, 12:15 PM) *
We might have to all become storm chasers and just drive over the border to get some snow biggrin.gif


Snow Event from Environment Canada, subject to change. Looks good for those down south... a drop in the bucket for York Region. Subject to change, of course.
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Attached File  Snow.png ( 258.63K ) Number of downloads: 11
 
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robv1989
post Feb 28 2018, 12:59 PM
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I'll be sure to take some pictures either way Thursday Night and then Friday morning, whether it's a bust or an epic storm tongue.gif

Crazy that right now it's 15 C out and sunny.
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