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> Oct 2015 - May 2017 MidAtl/NE Drought, Forecasts, Discussion & OBS
MaineJay
post Jun 26 2016, 05:55 PM
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Instead of cluttering up the summer thread, and as an attempt to "jinx" the dry spell.

Suggestions on start date are appreciated, I know "June" is awful vague.

Areas of 6"+ deficits over the last 90'days are popping up.
Attached Image

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

GYX disco
QUOTE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Much needed rains coming next week?

An upper level trough will gradually becoming negatively tilted
with time on Tuesday as is remains over the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday. At the same time, a slow moving cold front at the surface
will become quasi-stationary during the day. Ahead of the front,
a moist southerly flow will continue, allowing precipitable water
values to approach around 1.5 inches.

Models differ significantly as to the timing and placement of
shower activity during the day. Prefer a solution which would
suggest that most of the precipitation will be locked up across
the northernmost mountain areas on Tuesday
as best dynamics
remains well to our northwest.


As the atmosphere destabilizes and dynamics aloft approach our
forecast area, thunderstorms will develop in the area from about
HIE to Jackman area will likely receive an inch or more of
much needed rains as drought conditions continue in that region.
Unfortunately, further to the south, pops will be much lower away
from the stationary front and dynamics aloft. The chance for rain
will increase along the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, but
the most likely scenario will be that more rain will fall over
northwestern portions of the forecast area as compared to
southeastern portion
s. Again, there are significant timing and
location differences from model to model and run to run.


A weak area of high pressure will allow for dry conditions on
Thursday before a fast moving impulse embedded within an upper
level trough rotates through the region on Friday. Rainfall is not
expected to be widespread.

The upper level trough will lead to considerable diurnal
cloudiness next weekend, but most communities will remain dry.

&&


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

Drought monitor
Attached Image


QUOTE
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Dry conditions prevailed over much of the region, though well-placed showers (1-2 inches) in southwestern Pennsylvanian and environs led to the removal of Moderate Drought (D1) and a reduction of Abnormal Dryness (D0) across the central Appalachians. In contrast, D0 and D1 were increased from New York into New England due to declining streamflows (locally below the 10th percentile) and a lack of rain over the past 90 days (less than half of normal). In fact, many of the Northeast’s D1 areas are now running rainfall deficits in excess of 6 inches over the past 6 months.


http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

This post has been edited by MaineJay: May 14 2017, 01:35 PM


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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NorEaster07
post Jun 26 2016, 07:56 PM
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Grass getting pretty crisp everywhere you look now. Usually browns up like this in July.

Less than 1.25" all month with a bunch of 80s.

Sycamore trees dying

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MD Blue Ridge
post Jun 26 2016, 07:53 PM
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I'm surprised Wernersville, pa is running a little short on rainfall, haven't heard any reports from there wink.gif

Still ahead here, but not by a ton, still growing grass like crazy. Beautiful weekend.


--------------------
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sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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JDClapper
post Jun 26 2016, 09:03 PM
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Any room in here for someone who is quite enjoying this dry weather? After several years of weekly mowing and green grass that grows overnight .. I am completely digging the brown crispyness the lawn is beginning to turn into.

Yeah, I have to water the garden every so often, and keep the newly seeded strip alive.. but outside of that, sign me up for a dry summer. We can make up the qpf deficit in snow this winter. wink.gif laugh.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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NorEaster07
post Jun 26 2016, 09:11 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jun 26 2016, 10:03 PM) *
Any room in here for someone who is quite enjoying this dry weather? After several years of weekly mowing and green grass that grows overnight .. I am completely digging the brown crispyness the lawn is beginning to turn into.

Yeah, I have to water the garden every so often, and keep the newly seeded strip alive.. but outside of that, sign me up for a dry summer. We can make up the qpf deficit in snow this winter. wink.gif laugh.gif


Oh yeah.. one of my favorite Junes I can remember. NW flows, dews not in the 60s much and dipping into the 40s some days. Phenomenal! I hate rain so I'm loving the dry trend.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 26 2016, 09:31 PM
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Islip having its 3rd driest June on record (since 1984 ) with 1.04" so far

Bridgeport 8th driest (since 1948) with 1.13"
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JDClapper
post Jun 26 2016, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 26 2016, 10:31 PM) *
Islip having its 3rd driest June on record (since 1984 ) with 1.04" so far

Bridgeport 8th driest (since 1948) with 1.13"


1.86" at IPT .. so the 19th driest since 1895. Or .. top 16%. Probably add a few tenths tomorrow and head into the top 20 somethings.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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NorEaster07
post Jun 27 2016, 05:16 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jun 26 2016, 11:24 PM) *
1.86" at IPT .. so the 19th driest since 1895. Or .. top 16%. Probably add a few tenths tomorrow and head into the top 20 somethings.


Providence, RI less than 1 inch all month so far. blink.gif Normal is 3.64"

The 0.84" is the 8th driest June on record for them. Records since 1905. So out of 111 yrs only 7 other Junes were drier. June 2013 was 2nd wettest with 10.08". June 2005 only had 0.64"

Lets see if the rains/showers around tomorrow will add to the monthly total.
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Ryan Duff
post Jun 27 2016, 05:31 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jun 26 2016, 08:53 PM) *
I'm surprised Wernersville, pa is running a little short on rainfall, haven't heard any reports from there wink.gif

Still ahead here, but not by a ton, still growing grass like crazy. Beautiful weekend.


LOL

I'm actually surprised it says Harrisburg is below. Looking at the YTD chart we're ahead (barely) and ended 2015 with above average precip.

Attached Image


--------------------
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"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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MaineJay
post Jun 27 2016, 06:30 AM
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All are welcomed Clapper. smile.gif no question that this ridiculous, and complete, lack of humidity. It's been truly remarkable. Obviously it's coming with the burnt grass, and wilting plant, but it certainly bodes well for a strong tourist season.


GYX, some areas might get something.
QUOTE
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The remains of a washed out front will stall along the coast while
a digging upper trough moves through the Great Lakes. scattered
showers are expected along southern areas along this washed out
boundary tonight. temperatures will be mild tonight due to cloud
cover and a warmer southerly flow. Humidity levels will be on the
increase. overnight lows will be in the 60s except 50s in the
mountains.

On tuesday the digging upper trough over the Eastern Great Lakes
moves east toward the area. As the trough approaches the
moist air mass in place over the area...showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop due to enough instability from increasing
lapse rates and some increase in shear.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance of high impact Wx: Low chance of torrential downpours
leading to isolated flash flooding in the mountains Tuesday into
Wednesday.

500 mb hemispheric pattern will continue to trend to troughing
over over NE CONUS and E Canada. The overall extent of the best
dynamics associated with these trough will lift poleward and
allow some periods of riding to work in. So, overall will not be
stuck in unsettled pattern. Temps look to be seasonal with 850 mb
temps running around 10-12C through the period.

The long range does start off unsettled with slow moving cold
front just west of the area Tuesday, waiting for kicker at 500 mb
to pass to our north late Wednesday. This will mean a threat of
showers and t-storms Tue night into Wed, with the best chance in
the mountains and foothills. PW values do exceed 1.5" at times,
and there is some potential of training cells Tue night into Wed
ahead of the front. However, the strongest dynamic forcing remains
to our north and west and will pass after peak heating late
Tuesday, so threat for isolated areas of heavy rains remain low,
and limited to the mtns. Overall QPF, look to hold to a half inch
or less on the coastal plain, with amounts around an inch in the
northern tier of zones, but will have to watch for isolated areas
of up to 2 inches in this area
. Tue night lows will be in the
60-65 range, and highs wed will be in the low to mid 70s.

The front crosses the region late Wednesday into Wed evening...and
will see RH drop some by Thursday, which will be mainly sunny with
highs in the mid 70s /coast and mtns/ to low 80s in the warm
inland areas. Thu night looks clear and comfortable with lows in
the 50s. Another system approaches Friday, but any showers or
storms will hold off until Friday night. Highs Friday will be a
degree or two warmer than Thu in most places. The weak wave aloft
passes to our N Fri night and Sat, and will drag a cold front
across the region on Sat, with showers and storms possible. Sunday
and Monday look mostly dry /some showers possible in the
mountains/ and a bit cooler.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?ac...=11&t=32845


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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phillyfan
post Jun 27 2016, 08:02 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jun 26 2016, 08:53 PM) *
I'm surprised Wernersville, pa is running a little short on rainfall, haven't heard any reports from there wink.gif

Still ahead here, but not by a ton, still growing grass like crazy. Beautiful weekend.

Hardy har har har. laugh.gif I'm holding out hope for something today or tomorrow.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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phillyfan
post Jun 27 2016, 08:03 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jun 26 2016, 10:03 PM) *
Any room in here for someone who is quite enjoying this dry weather? After several years of weekly mowing and green grass that grows overnight .. I am completely digging the brown crispyness the lawn is beginning to turn into.

Yeah, I have to water the garden every so often, and keep the newly seeded strip alive.. but outside of that, sign me up for a dry summer. We can make up the qpf deficit in snow this winter. wink.gif laugh.gif

Yeah it'd be nickel and dime snow again. laugh.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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rtcemc
post Jun 27 2016, 10:44 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jun 26 2016, 10:03 PM) *
Any room in here for someone who is quite enjoying this dry weather? After several years of weekly mowing and green grass that grows overnight .. I am completely digging the brown crispyness the lawn is beginning to turn into.

Yeah, I have to water the garden every so often, and keep the newly seeded strip alive.. but outside of that, sign me up for a dry summer. We can make up the qpf deficit in snow this winter. wink.gif laugh.gif

I am so with you Clap. Endless dreary days of 2nd half March and April have me loving this. Course is getting too dry and hard, and the Lehigh River than I jog by is really getting low. However, I too luv the crunchy brown hue to grass is taking on. Cutting the grass every 5 days, plus getting attacked by swarms of gnats constantly was getting old. They are a big problem this year, as many of my friends have been getting bitten severely also. I was using the weed whacker one day, and when I finished I looked like I had the measles. Another side effect of the warm winter. So put me in the camp of brown rules, in the summer.....not winter laugh.gif
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kpk33x
post Jun 27 2016, 10:46 AM
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I don't think the yellow "official" drought status started to show up here until a few weeks ago, but it has been pretty dry since mid March. April was 2" below normal, May 1" below normal, and if not for one day in early June we'd have nothing.

The lack of snow cover we had this winter probably exacerbates it - less slow absorption into the soil than normal.

I don't mind not having to cut the lawn (weeds?) much and I enjoy low humidity and comfortable overnights when we have them, just don't want a string of 90F+ afternoons. I miss my central AC.


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
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Undertakerson
post Jun 27 2016, 11:38 AM
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Given the deluge outside my window (from a very isolated cell) I don't think I'll be joining this discussion very often. We missed out last Friday's event that caught Duff's area, so this is our "make up" - bet we end up with at least 0.5" from this one lonely but soaking cell.
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phillyfan
post Jun 27 2016, 12:01 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 27 2016, 12:38 PM) *
Given the deluge outside my window (from a very isolated cell) I don't think I'll be joining this discussion very often. We missed out last Friday's event that caught Duff's area, so this is our "make up" - bet we end up with at least 0.5" from this one lonely but soaking cell.

Hoping that cell you got keeps coming east. unsure.gif

Edit:
So much for that cell UTS got, it weakened and dropped south.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jun 27 2016, 01:03 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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NorEaster07
post Jun 27 2016, 01:13 PM
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Definitely no drought buster type front.

#scattered #localized or light

Good luck getting something


Attached Image


Looks like northern tier will get more than the rest of us.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jun 27 2016, 01:14 PM
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phillyfan
post Jun 27 2016, 01:45 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 27 2016, 02:13 PM) *
Definitely no drought buster type front.

#scattered #localized or light

Good luck getting something


Attached Image


Looks like northern tier will get more than the rest of us.


Attached Image

Looks more widespread though in the northern part of PA and around the mason dixon line. Looks really sparse around my part.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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NorEaster07
post Jun 27 2016, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jun 27 2016, 02:45 PM) *
Looks more widespread though in the northern part of PA and around the mason dixon line. Looks really sparse around my part.


Not sure I would call those 2 little batches, "widespread" there in PA.

This is what I would call widespread (from May 6th)


Attached Image

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phillyfan
post Jun 27 2016, 02:38 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 27 2016, 03:29 PM) *
Not sure I would call those 2 little batches, "widespread" there in PA.

This is what I would call widespread (from May 6th)


Attached Image

True as in area wide. Got a steady downpour coming through now. Won't last long but it's better then nothing. Popped yellow right overhead.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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