Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

21 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Oct 2015 - May 2017 MidAtl/NE Drought, Forecasts, Discussion & OBS
rtcemc
post Jun 27 2016, 03:16 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,839
Joined: 26-December 08
From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jun 27 2016, 03:38 PM) *
True as in area wide. Got a steady downpour coming through now. Won't last long but it's better then nothing. Popped yellow right overhead.

Yup, weakened (again) as it headed east. Exactly what Clap and I didn't want. Perfect grass growing rain, yet nothing to help drought:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mike W IN herkim...
post Jun 27 2016, 03:45 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,267
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547





Picked up 0.36" this morning at the airport, June hasn't been terrible with about 3.4" for the month so far..May was the real culprit with only 1.8" of liquid..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 0.2 (as of 11/11)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Jun 27 2016, 04:10 PM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,449
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jun 27 2016, 03:38 PM) *
True as in area wide. Got a steady downpour coming through now. Won't last long but it's better then nothing. Popped yellow right overhead.


Take a look now 5:05pm. Little more on the map but still light stuff. Notice there's really no 35+dbz north of Virginia. Some not even reaching the ground. Those in the yellows getting some lucky rains.

Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jun 27 2016, 04:13 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Jun 27 2016, 04:10 PM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,231
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Mid-upper 80s around my area today. The breeze helped make it feel quite nice, if you could get out of that sun.

GYX, I'll take anything I can get, but it seems the rainfall will not be distributed equitably.

QUOTE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z model suite now depicting a weak weather disturbance passing
over southern areas overnight. Mesoscale models bring light
precipitation to this region overnight, so we have increased pops
to chance. Any areas that receive rain, followed by clearing will
pick up some fog. Have added this to the grids, however guidance
may be overdoing the low visibilities and low cloud cover as the
ground remains overly dry.

It will be milder tonight than the last several nights due to the
cloud cover and breeze. Expect the mins to be in the upper 50s in
the north to the mid 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Best dynamics on Tuesday shifts to along/ahead the stationary
front located over western New England. As the upper level low
approaches and becomes more negatively tilted with time,
instability increases as well. Highest CAPE values will be over
northern and western areas Tuesday afternoon. Similar to SPC, have
included locally heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds for much
of New Hampshire and portions of western Maine for Tuesday
afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue through Tuesday night,
however they should weaken with time. Patchy fog may redevelop
during the overnight hours.

QPF: Storm total rainfall appears to around a half inch near the
coast to an inch to an inch and a half in the far north. This will
not put much of a dent in the drought which is moderate over the
mountains and portions of southern ME/NH.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The slow moving cold front and associated trough aloft will
continue to cross the region Wednesday. Models indicate quite a
bit of instability developing Wednesday afternoon across the area
enhanced by diurnal heating. Greatest threat of strong storms will
be across New Hampshire and all but the coast of Western Maine.
SPC Outlook has this area highlighted as a marginal risk of severe
weather. Showers and thunderstorms should come to an end Wednesday

evening as the trough swings east.

Drier and more stable air moves into the region for Thursday and
Friday with a weak disturbance moving through the region Friday
night into Saturday as another upper level trough swings east.
This will bring scattered showers to the region overnight Friday
night.

An upper level trough will remain over the region through Monday.
With cool air aloft and strong sunshine, expect clouds to
increase each afternoon...especially in the mountains where an
afternoon shower is possible Saturday through Monday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rtcemc
post Jun 27 2016, 04:21 PM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,839
Joined: 26-December 08
From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jun 27 2016, 04:16 PM) *
Yup, weakened (again) as it headed east. Exactly what Clap and I didn't want. Perfect grass growing rain, yet nothing to help drought:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar

The good news with this was it has been moving very slowly all day. Crawling. We still have light rain here.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rtcemc
post Jun 27 2016, 04:41 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,839
Joined: 26-December 08
From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





Actually backfilled some. Now raining at a pretty good clip. What is this, a winter storm?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylva...er-radar?play=1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Jun 27 2016, 04:58 PM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,449
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jun 27 2016, 05:41 PM) *
Actually backfilled some. Now raining at a pretty good clip. What is this, a winter storm?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylva...er-radar?play=1


laugh.gif waiting for drop of rain as if it was snow. Can you imagine a yearly or decadal drought? These little droughts only affect the landscape here so really no big deal for us. Especially knowing it always rains too much eventually. Been there, seen that. 5+" in May people were getting sick of clouds and rain. I bet we'll be saying the same in couple months

Btw.. I cant stress how this was my favorite June ever. Im sitting outside right now and almost too chilly for shorts with the wind. ohmy.gif Temps in mid 70s early evening but is humid. Dews in mid 60s.

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jun 27 2016, 05:00 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rtcemc
post Jun 27 2016, 05:14 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,839
Joined: 26-December 08
From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 27 2016, 05:58 PM) *
laugh.gif waiting for drop of rain as if it was snow. Can you imagine a yearly or decadal drought? These little droughts only affect the landscape here so really no big deal for us. Especially knowing it always rains too much eventually. Been there, seen that. 5+" in May people were getting sick of clouds and rain. I bet we'll be saying the same in couple months

Btw.. I cant stress how this was my favorite June ever. Im sitting outside right now and almost too chilly for shorts with the wind. ohmy.gif Temps in mid 70s early evening but is humid. Dews in mid 60s.

Agree. Nice days, very warm, but low humidity for the most part. Cool nights. When we do get a hot shot, it doesn't have staying power. Yet due to the sun being at its highest point, my pool temp shot up to 92 degrees, without turning the propane on. Was going to leave cover off to cool it down, but saw the rain chances for today and tomorrow, which usually does the trick. Not sure if today had enough rain to help though. I will take 2 more months, please.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Jun 27 2016, 09:11 PM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,303
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





Very muggy day. .5"+ of rain around 1 pm today. My neighbor the record keeper says were 2" ahead for June. With May and June being wet and foggy, May extremely so, it usually brings out the tarleaf in the maple trees which stinks. But I will never curse the rain.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
STEVE392
post Jun 28 2016, 12:02 AM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,959
Joined: 19-July 10
From: Little Ferry,NJ
Member No.: 23,183





had some good rains here in mahwah,nj today. got rather dark towards the pm rush and took awhile for it to come down but it did. Had some periods of heavy rain too. Now just a steady mist and fog.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Jun 28 2016, 04:32 AM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,231
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Sanford, Maine, records go back to 1954

Attached Image


PWM, record begins in 1868

Attached Image


It really hasn't rained here significantly, in 3 months, save for the one day in June, and one in early May Was supposed to get some last night, and nothing. Supposed to get something this morning, nothing.



--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Jun 28 2016, 05:01 AM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,449
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Only 0.16" fell overnight. Woke up to a wet ground but the deep roots didn't get a good drink. Good for the grass I guess. Only1.33" this month IMBY

For Rochester .. Less than an inch this month (0.87") which is the 6th driest June on record.

Here's a graph of June rain totals since 1871! blink.gif 6th Driest is Impressive! Only 5 other years were drier out of 145 yrs


Attached Image

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Jun 28 2016, 05:03 AM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,449
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Allentown. 1.77" this month is 8th driest on record.

Meanwhile.... Richmond is having its 9th wettest June on record with almost 7 inches of rain.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Jun 28 2016, 05:17 AM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,449
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864






Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Jun 28 2016, 05:34 AM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,880
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 28 2016, 06:17 AM) *

Attached Image

Another look - via the Palmer Index http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-conten...nt-week-pdi.gif

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 28 2016, 05:35 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Jun 28 2016, 06:57 AM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,303
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





The power of the mason Dixon line again shows its might. If you're around or below it, your wet, above it you're dry. At some point it will be proven that the mason Dixon line has more impact on the climate, then the moon, jet streams, and pressure systems combined.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ryan Duff
post Jun 28 2016, 09:44 AM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,857
Joined: 2-February 10
From: Havre de Grace, MD
Member No.: 21,302





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 27 2016, 12:38 PM) *
Given the deluge outside my window (from a very isolated cell) I don't think I'll be joining this discussion very often. We missed out last Friday's event that caught Duff's area, so this is our "make up" - bet we end up with at least 0.5" from this one lonely but soaking cell.


This got us too... had 3 or so bouts with heavy rain on and off yesterday afternoon. It'd pour for a few minutes, then stop for 30. Rinse and repeat. Picked up around 0.3" of additional rain.

My yard went from brown and dry to soggy and moldy. Talk about extremes.


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 28 2016, 01:24 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,861
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jun 28 2016, 07:57 AM) *
The power of the mason Dixon line again shows its might. If you're around or below it, your wet, above it you're dry. At some point it will be proven that the mason Dixon line has more impact on the climate, then the moon, jet streams, and pressure systems combined.


hahaha its all topography in that region. Always gets us here in lancaster where storms explode south of us but become just heavy rain up here. Micro climates play a huge role in a lot of situations with the mason dixon line.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Jun 28 2016, 02:29 PM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,303
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 28 2016, 02:24 PM) *
hahaha its all topography in that region. Always gets us here in lancaster where storms explode south of us but become just heavy rain up here. Micro climates play a huge role in a lot of situations with the mason dixon line.


You couldn't be more right, and I like it when Mr. Horst (your former professor) calls out South Mountain in his storm discussions.

Speaking of storms, a here a comes one. Nice quick temp drop, looks like we have some 35 dbz headed our way.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jun 28 2016, 02:40 PM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Jun 28 2016, 08:56 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,771
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





Looks like IPT picked up 2.58" in 2 or 3 cells. So much for being a "dry" month, as far as the rainfall records will show.

Meanwhile, near Elysburg, PA it's been dreary and garbage weather since 4:45. Annoying, when you are trying to camp.

I miss the drought.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

21 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd November 2017 - 07:55 AM