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> Oct 2015 - May 2017 MidAtl/NE Drought, Forecasts, Discussion & OBS
phillyfan
post Jun 28 2016, 10:39 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jun 28 2016, 09:56 PM) *
Looks like IPT picked up 2.58" in 2 or 3 cells. So much for being a "dry" month, as far as the rainfall records will show.

Meanwhile, near Elysburg, PA it's been dreary and garbage weather since 4:45. Annoying, when you are trying to camp.

I miss the drought.

Still have missed out on the heavy rains down here in Berks. Back to watering tomorrow, at least I didn't put the hoses away.

A little off topic but this was posted by weather world tonight:

QUOTE
Our latest "Long Shots" forecast calls for a dry September in Pennsylvania.


Can't believe I'm saying it, but I hope the system showing up on the GFS on the 4th of July trends north.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jun 28 2016, 11:12 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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MaineJay
post Jun 29 2016, 05:20 AM
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So grateful to have picked up 0.32" this morning. Not exactly a "drought buster", but will help stop the grass from burning. Hopefully we can pick up a bit more later today, but it's not guaranteed.

GYX
QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Ongoing showers/t-storms with period spells of heavy rain associated
with wave exiting base of 500 mb trough to our west. These will
continue to lift NNE thru about 10z or so before exiting the CWA.
There is a bit of lull after that, which should last thru most of
the morning, although a brief shower cannot be rule out before
the cold front works through this afternoon, and will being
another round of showers and storms. The good news for some is
that the front should cross the CT vly and central and nrn NH
earlier in the day, and may limit total rainfall associated with
any storms there this afternoon, as dry air works in at mid
levels. The heavy rain threat will shift further east into
southern NH and western/central ME, but even here, the mid-level
drying may help to mitigate the heavy rain threat, as will the
stronger winds aloft.


Tricky part of the forecast will be the potential for any strong
to severe storms. Dew points in the mid 60s will help, but extent
of any potential clearing will be the deciding factor whether
organized storms can form
. If they do there is enough vertical
shear and strong enough winds aloft to produce some bowing
segments with wind damage.

Any partial clearing will be away from the coast in central and
southern and interior SW ME. Otherwise, look for clouds to linger
along the coast and in the mountains. Look for highs ranging from
near 80 in southern NH to generally the low to mid 70s in the
mountains and along the ME coast north of York county.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Although there could be a few lingering showers or storms in the
pre-sunset part of this evening. Should see things begin to clear
around sunset. Timing of the fropa will limit the amount of dry
air that pushes in at the surface and will likely be dealing with
some fog...and perhaps low clouds in the coastal plain tonight.
Should see some drying in the north...and lows will certainly be
cooler than this morning...ranging from the mid 50s north to
around 60 coastal areas and the urban areas of southern NH.

Once the sun rises Thursday will see any lingering fog and low
clouds dissipate and drier air will mix down. Although westerly
flow will be weak, downslope should warm the coastal plain before
a sea breeze develops mid-late afternoon. Highs will range from
the upper 70s in the mtns, to around 80 on the coast /but mid-
upper 70s at the beaches/, to the low mid 80s in the interior
areas of the coastal plain.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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telejunkie
post Jun 29 2016, 08:12 AM
Post #43




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Very disappointed with storms yesterday…lots of rumbles from cells in the area, but not much more than sprinkles through the evening and overnight hours. First shot of t-storms scooted off just to my north west (watched the clouds & lightning) and by the time another round redeveloped they were off to my east. Had a couple minutes of light rain around midnight, but barely registered anything on my rain gauge.

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Jun 29 2016, 08:13 AM


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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phillyfan
post Jun 29 2016, 08:35 AM
Post #44




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Can we please push all this north. ohmy.gif

i'm out to do more watering since everything is dry out here.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jun 29 2016, 08:37 AM
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--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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LUCC
post Jun 29 2016, 11:08 AM
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Watch, the rain will come on July 4th of course. rolleyes.gif Bought tickets to the Tim McGraw beach concert in Wildwood for the 4th.


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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phillyfan
post Jun 29 2016, 11:42 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Jun 29 2016, 12:08 PM) *
Watch, the rain will come on July 4th of course. rolleyes.gif Bought tickets to the Tim McGraw beach concert in Wildwood for the 4th.

It's showing up on the 5th now on the last few runs of the GFS. I hope that one happens since Friday doesn't look like much if anything.

NY NJ PA Weather:
QUOTE
Threat for any thunderstorms slowly decreasing and shifting towards New England. Friday afternoon and evening will feature scattered thunderstorms, but threat again focused towards C NY through New England.



--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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Undertakerson
post Jun 29 2016, 03:42 PM
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Member No.: 21,746





From State College

Attached Image


QUOTE
29 June 2016 @ 1230pm: While some locations saw localized downpours on Tuesday, many of us did not see much (if any) rain. This map shows county-average precipitation departures from normal over the past 90 days. You can see that much of Pennsylvania has been quite dry over that period
.

Kocin mentions the potential for Tuesday (surprise, surprise, another Tuesday rain threat - kind of the pattern lately)

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1149 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

VALID 12Z SAT JUL 02 2016 - 12Z WED JUL 06 2016

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...

THE FAIRLY PREDICTABLE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAS BEGUN TO DEGRADE AS A VARIETY OF SHORTRANGE FEATURES ARE
EXHIBITING INCREASING MODEL SPREAD WITH THE OVERNIGHT MODELS.
WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY
GOOD...THERE ARE INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS ESPECIALLY WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH COULD YIELD SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN QPF FORECASTS.

IN GENERAL...USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z NAEFS MEAN AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN EARLIER IN THE FORECAST WHILE TRENDED TOWARD
THE ECWMF ENSEMBLE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 AND BEYOND/MONDAY ETC. ON
DAYS 3 AND 4/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DESPITE INCREASING
DIFFERENCES...HEAVY RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
MISSOURI. THERE ALSO HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL US TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER INDICATED.
THIS COULD BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
AS EARLY AS JULY 4 AND ON THE FOLLOWING DAY
. TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO BE AN IMPORTANT SIGNAL LATER IN THE
FORECAST.

KOCIN
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NorEaster07
post Jun 29 2016, 04:20 PM
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The only areas that received less than 2" this month (climo sites only) are

Eastern PA (Allentown, Philly, Scranton)
Erie, PA

Western NY (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse)

All of CT, Long Island, MA and Southern NH (Concord)

Rochester with less than an inch all month? Gees
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MaineJay
post Jun 29 2016, 05:05 PM
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Been teased all day, even now I am watching and listening to a storm roll by to my north. Only got an additional 0.03", so 0.35" total, hopefully I can catch one of these last bits. At least most areas around me received an inch or more. Just not this guy.

#walkinginphillyfansshoes

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 29 2016, 05:08 PM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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risingriver
post Jun 29 2016, 05:38 PM
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I'm happy to send some of my excess rain northward, if you send snow southward come Dec./Jan. Hard to remember the last time central VA was so consistently wet. Best I could find in my records was May/June 2003. So far this year every time we come close to getting back to normal river levels around here, we get another batch of rainy days to elevate things again. Fredericksburg hasn't been in the center of the tracks, which the first post map show have clustered just to our south, but it's enough to notice.

Our Feb- March, however, were definitely drier than normal.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jun 29 2016, 07:45 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 29 2016, 05:20 PM) *
The only areas that received less than 2" this month (climo sites only) are

Eastern PA (Allentown, Philly, Scranton)
Erie, PA

Western NY (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse)

All of CT, Long Island, MA and Southern NH (Concord)

Rochester with less than an inch all month? Gees

Yea it has been hit or miss around the area, guess it is to be expected in summer time..Ksyr is at 1.95" for the month, kfzy(Fulton airport) is at 3.44..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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NorEaster07
post Jun 29 2016, 10:16 PM
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June 27, 2016

http://www.ct.gov/dph/cwp/view.asp?Q=582092&A=4820

QUOTE
State Issues Drought Advisory

With precipitation across Connecticut down as much as six inches over the last 90 days, the Department of Public Health (DPH) today issued a Drought Advisory. It is recommended that customers of public water systems follow any water conservation recommendations that may be requested by their water utility and that businesses and residents served by private wells follow DPH’s water conservation advice.

"I want to emphasize that water levels in Connecticut’s larger reservoirs and water systems are perfectly fine at this point. There are currently no reports of any Community Public Water Systems triggering their emergency contingency plans due to below normal reservoir capacities. DPH continuously monitors our reservoirs, and we are not in a drought," added Dr. Pino. "However, we have not experienced as much rain as we typically do to this point in the year. Therefore people should be conscientious about their water consumption so that we don’t begin to experience drought conditions later this summer, particularly if rainfall continues to be below average."

"While the state’s public water supplies are still fine overall, some of our smaller systems across the state with lower yielding supplies may want to consider requesting water conservation measures from their customers," said DPH Commissioner Dr. Raul Pino. "If drier than usual conditions persist, we may see systems requesting conservation measures to protect their water supply. Accordingly, we are asking all residents to comply with any conservation recommendations issued by your water company and for well water customers to cut back on unnecessary water usage."

The Interagency Drought Advisory Workgroup, comprised of the Commissioners of DPH and the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP), and the Chairman of the Public Utility Regulatory Authority (PURA), monitors and analyzes water-related data to ensure that Connecticut’s water supplies remain stable. At a meeting of the Workgroup earlier today, it was determined that five of seven drought benchmarks had been met, triggering the state’s entry into the Drought Advisory Stage. Those benchmarks include: precipitation, groundwater, streamflow, Palmer Drought Index and fire danger. The remaining two benchmarks, reservoir levels and the Crop Moisture Index, have not been met. Drought Advisories were previously declared in 2002, 2007 and 2010. If conditions continue to decline, a Drought Watch would be issued.

The DPH water conservation fact sheet for businesses and residents on private wells can be accessed by clicking here.

The DPH’s "Drought Guidance for Consumers" of public water systems can be accessed by clicking here.
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New England Stor...
post Jun 29 2016, 10:49 PM
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Welp, the drought rolls on in the baystate. No widespread rain fall in good long time, apart from a few storms nothing. Grass is starting to look a little brown. Good news is no big heat yet to make the lawn look worse.


--------------------
Weather 2012-2013
Oct 28-29 Sandy Gust to 60MPH
Oct 29 Thunder storms
Dec 29 2.8 inch of snow
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NorEaster07
post Jun 30 2016, 09:52 AM
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Updated.


The scattered rain in the Northeast didn't boost the numbers as it did where it didn't rain.

Abnormally dry area is up to 65% in Northeast vs 61% last week. Moderate drought only covers 12% of the region vs 7% last week.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Regiona....aspx?northeast

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NorEaster07
post Jun 30 2016, 09:54 AM
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Same link above...

Edit: Just read they mentioned streams are historically low. Interesting. Wonder if the least snowiest winter for Burlington had anything to do with that. Bridgeport was normal but they are at the coast so I'd look upstream for any snow melt and river waters. Or is it just too late in the seasons to even be thinking about that?

QUOTE
National Drought Summary for June 28, 2016


Summary

Please note the Drought Monitor depicts conditions valid through Tuesday morning, 8 a.m., EDT (12 UTC); any of the recent locally heavy rain which fell after Tuesday morning (June 28) will be incorporated into next week’s drought assessment. For the 7-day period ending June 28, despite pockets of locally heavy rain (which led to catastrophic flooding in parts of West Virginia), above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall caused dryness and drought to expand or intensify across portions of the central and eastern U.S. Nationally, the percent of soil moisture rated poor to very poor climbed 5 points over last week to 31 percent (as of June 26, according to USDA-NASS), which was 14 percentage points higher than last year at the same time.

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

While heat was not an issue, conditions deteriorated as dry weather prevailed. In particular, Abnormal Dryness (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) increased in New York and New Jersey as well as portions of southern New England. May of the region’s D1 areas have reported less than 50 percent of normal rainfall over the past 90 days, and streamflows remained historically low (5th percentile or lower) from northern New Jersey into central and northern Maine. Concurrently, topsoil moisture was rated 66, 75, and 81 percent short to very short (as of June 26, according to USDA-NASS) in Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire, respectively.

Southeast and Tennessee Valley

Heavy rainfall in northern portions of the region contrasted with unfavorably dry conditions farther south. From southern Kentucky and western Tennessee into northern Alabama, heavy rain (1-4 inches, locally more) resulted in a 1- to 2-category reduction in drought intensity. Farther south, Abnormal Dryness (D0), Moderate Drought (D1), and Severe Drought (D2) were expanded to further reflect increasing — albeit highly variable — precipitation deficits over the past 90 days. Likewise, pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) were introduced into the driest areas of northeastern Alabama and northern Georgia, where 90-day rainfall has totaled locally less than 45 percent of normal and soil moisture was likewise depleted; according to USDA-NASS, topsoil moisture was rated 55 and 54 percent poor to very poor in Georgia and Alabama, respectively, increases of 13 and 8 percentage points over the previous week.


Midwest and lower Ohio Valley


Highly variable rainfall was noted over the region’s Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) areas. Relatively narrow swaths of moderate to heavy rain (1-4 inches, locally more) resulted in reductions of D0 and D1 coverage, most notably from Ohio into east-central Iowa. Conversely, D0 was increased over central and southern Michigan, where 60-day rainfall has totaled 50 to 70 percent of normal. Topsoil moisture in Michigan was rated 60 percent short to very short as of June 26 by USDA-NASS, a 13-point jump from last week and 57 percentage points higher than a year ago. While state-wide net gains were noted in soil moisture (percent short to very short decline week to week) from Missouri into Ohio, D1 was increased in southeastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri to reflect 60-day rainfall near or below half of normal. In the western-most Corn Belt, D1 was introduced in south-central Nebraska where 60-day rainfall was likewise less than 50 percent of normal.

Looking Ahead

High pressure will maintain sunny skies across most of the eastern and southern U.S. into the weekend, with cooler-than-normal weather from the Corn Belt into the Northeast contrasting with lingering warmth over the Gulf Coast States. Showers will persist, however, in the western Corn Belt and central Plains, where rain could be locally heavy. During the upcoming holiday weekend, an area of low pressure will develop over the central High Plains and track eastward, producing a swath of increasingly heavy rain from the central Plains to the southern Corn Belt, reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic Region by early next week. Five-day rainfall totals are expected to top 5 inches in parts of Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and western Missouri. Farther west, monsoon showers will continue over the Four Corners and Southwest, with lighter showers spreading as far north as the central and northern Rockies. Hot, seasonably dry weather is expected over the Pacific Coast States. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for July 5 – 9 calls for above-normal temperatures across most of the nation, except for cooler conditions in the Northwest, with the greatest likelihood of abnormal warm extending from the Corn Belt to the Gulf Coast. Above-normal rainfall is expected from the Upper Midwest to the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast, while drier-than-normal conditions are anticipated in New England and from the Interior Northwest southeastward to the western and southern Gulf Coast.


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jun 30 2016, 09:55 AM
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rtcemc
post Jun 30 2016, 11:24 AM
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Hoping for some decent t-storms, and/or downpours tomorrow here. As NE posted, really dry around Eastern Pa. Rains mostly ducking south of here lately, and t-storms continuing trend of breaking apart or splitting south and north of region. Usually onset of humid air can be trigger, especially when closely followed by another front. Biggest factor is I am golfing again tomorrow morning, and only have morning window for foursome to play. that should lock a drought buster in wink.gif
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phillyfan
post Jun 30 2016, 12:54 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jun 30 2016, 12:24 PM) *
Hoping for some decent t-storms, and/or downpours tomorrow here. As NE posted, really dry around Eastern Pa. Rains mostly ducking south of here lately, and t-storms continuing trend of breaking apart or splitting south and north of region. Usually onset of humid air can be trigger, especially when closely followed by another front. Biggest factor is I am golfing again tomorrow morning, and only have morning window for foursome to play. that should lock a drought buster in wink.gif

I'm eyeing Tuesday next week as a better opportunity.

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--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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Undertakerson
post Jun 30 2016, 03:44 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jun 30 2016, 01:54 PM) *
I'm eyeing Tuesday next week as a better opportunity.

Thinking we have some of the best combo of spin and midlevel humidity to make Tuesday's threat appear to be for real for most of PA. The shortwave wants to model as passing just below PA - pretty much includes all zones except the NW of PA.

Still plenty of time for the signal to clarify - but NE looks to be on the outside looking in on this deal (similar to when the winter storm pattern/path takes that route with the shortwaves).
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MaineJay
post Jun 30 2016, 05:33 PM
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Another gorgeous day, low humidity, northwest winds, mid 80s. Unfortunately I can't fully enjoy it. I drove by a beaver pond that I've been driving by for 12 years, and I've never seen it so low, not sure it can be classified as a pond at this point. Hopefully tomorrow brings something. smile.gif


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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NorEaster07
post Jun 30 2016, 05:50 PM
Post #60




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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 30 2016, 06:33 PM) *
Another gorgeous day, low humidity, northwest winds, mid 80s. Unfortunately I can't fully enjoy it. I drove by a beaver pond that I've been driving by for 12 years, and I've never seen it so low, not sure it can be classified as a pond at this point. Hopefully tomorrow brings something. smile.gif


Yup.. dews in the low 50s with sun. Incredible. One of my favorite June's I can remember. I'll take a drought if it means NW flowing troughs and no humidity!

On that note. Bridgeport finishes June 2016 with 1.26". 9th driest. They haven't had a June this dry since 1999
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