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> Oct 2015 - May 2017 MidAtl/NE Drought, Forecasts, Discussion & OBS
MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 31 2017, 07:49 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 31 2017, 02:20 PM) *
I would say its held fairly well, June was rather dry outside of the tropical system that came in and even May with the constant cloudiness only produced about normal of 2.7" for the month july well has been rather wet down this way from a random summer nor easter, now I see how it evolves in the summer time and might be a little different for next time. We received 4.71" from one small slow moving thunderstorm complex about a week or so ago at MDT which put us close to 10" for july, very impressive to say the least but that certainly did not all soak into the ground lol. While I would like to call it completely over I just still have thoughts of maybe this might just be holding on. Surface conditions have normalized for sure as we should be seeing drying grass and dust kicking up from the surface but everything is a lush green. Its well under the surface where the waters percolate down that always needs to be watched with the heavy rainfalls the ground cant handle that type of flow which ultimately leads to flooding as many have seen, basically the top layer cant push down that rain that has fallen quick enough to be beneficial. So I would watch out for any stalled patterns of heat and humidity if and when it builds back in the ground moisture will surely add to the mugginess and go from there.

And hey if you are all in agreement ill give that to one of yall! tongue.gif I like winter forecasting over summer anyways everything tends to have much more of a concrete stance in fall and winter then summer. Prediciting if thunderstorms are going to happen is way to blotchy out side of a complex and even then the nature of those can always be a tough one.


I cannot tell you how well you matched how I hoped youd respond to my petty prodding. Hahaha well done sir.


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Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 31 2017, 11:10 PM
Post #402




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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 31 2017, 08:49 PM) *
I cannot tell you how well you matched how I hoped youd respond to my petty prodding. Hahaha well done sir.

laugh.gif laugh.gif


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


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KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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MaineJay
post Aug 1 2017, 06:08 AM
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Geez, like a quarter of an inch for the month at the dirty LEW.

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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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KENNYP2339
post Aug 1 2017, 09:46 AM
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Get ready for a dry period for the next few weeks in NWNJ, I'm planting a large section of grass so I'm almost certain that mother nature will keep me on my toes with the garden hose.
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LUCC
post Aug 1 2017, 10:07 AM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Aug 1 2017, 10:46 AM) *
Get ready for a dry period for the next few weeks in NWNJ, I'm planting a large section of grass so I'm almost certain that mother nature will keep me on my toes with the garden hose.

Any looking at the medium range the rainy weekend has changed to mid 80s and sunny........


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Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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kpk33x
post Aug 1 2017, 11:35 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Aug 1 2017, 07:08 AM) *
Geez, like a quarter of an inch for the month at the dirty LEW.

Attached Image


I was looking at this earlier. We actually had 4.67", which put us a third of an inch above normal. It is amazing how quickly the amounts dropped off as I went east.

Over 2.6" of this came from the severe event on the 1st. We also picked up about an inch from storms on the 18th that must have missed you. Other than that it was the two events where you got maybe 0.1" and I got 0.4-0.5". In between it was a few stray hundredths of an inch.



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Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F:
...Frost:
...First sub-freezing low:
...Snow reported:

Foliage: Some color starting to show (Sept. 14)
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MaineJay
post Aug 2 2017, 03:47 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Aug 1 2017, 12:35 PM) *
I was looking at this earlier. We actually had 4.67", which put us a third of an inch above normal. It is amazing how quickly the amounts dropped off as I went east.

Over 2.6" of this came from the severe event on the 1st. We also picked up about an inch from storms on the 18th that must have missed you. Other than that it was the two events where you got maybe 0.1" and I got 0.4-0.5". In between it was a few stray hundredths of an inch.



The convection just dies as it moves of the high terrain onto the coastal plain, or that's been a theme this summer. Some areas not far from me have received some heavy downpours, it's just more "miss" than "hit". Definitely not as bad as last year, but the grass is still burning.

You can almost see the topography on the rainfall departure.
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NorEaster07
post Aug 3 2017, 04:46 AM
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Grass starting turning brown finally. Much later than usual. Dry period started around Mid July. More dry days then wet days. Bring on the next drought! tongue.gif Judging by the models, looks like we still got some wet chances coming up next 14 days.

Line of storms yesterday stayed away from the immediate coast. Was fascinating to watch all the cells that developed just die off as it approached. Only a shower here but heavier rains to the south and west. Once the 24hr reports come in I'll post. Should be interesting to see.
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