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> Oct 2015 - May 2017 MidAtl/NE Drought, Forecasts, Discussion & OBS
MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 31 2017, 07:49 PM
Post #401




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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 31 2017, 02:20 PM) *
I would say its held fairly well, June was rather dry outside of the tropical system that came in and even May with the constant cloudiness only produced about normal of 2.7" for the month july well has been rather wet down this way from a random summer nor easter, now I see how it evolves in the summer time and might be a little different for next time. We received 4.71" from one small slow moving thunderstorm complex about a week or so ago at MDT which put us close to 10" for july, very impressive to say the least but that certainly did not all soak into the ground lol. While I would like to call it completely over I just still have thoughts of maybe this might just be holding on. Surface conditions have normalized for sure as we should be seeing drying grass and dust kicking up from the surface but everything is a lush green. Its well under the surface where the waters percolate down that always needs to be watched with the heavy rainfalls the ground cant handle that type of flow which ultimately leads to flooding as many have seen, basically the top layer cant push down that rain that has fallen quick enough to be beneficial. So I would watch out for any stalled patterns of heat and humidity if and when it builds back in the ground moisture will surely add to the mugginess and go from there.

And hey if you are all in agreement ill give that to one of yall! tongue.gif I like winter forecasting over summer anyways everything tends to have much more of a concrete stance in fall and winter then summer. Prediciting if thunderstorms are going to happen is way to blotchy out side of a complex and even then the nature of those can always be a tough one.


I cannot tell you how well you matched how I hoped youd respond to my petty prodding. Hahaha well done sir.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 31 2017, 11:10 PM
Post #402




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From: Millersville, PA
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 31 2017, 08:49 PM) *
I cannot tell you how well you matched how I hoped youd respond to my petty prodding. Hahaha well done sir.

laugh.gif laugh.gif


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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MaineJay
post Aug 1 2017, 06:08 AM
Post #403




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Geez, like a quarter of an inch for the month at the dirty LEW.

Attached Image


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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KENNYP2339
post Aug 1 2017, 09:46 AM
Post #404




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Get ready for a dry period for the next few weeks in NWNJ, I'm planting a large section of grass so I'm almost certain that mother nature will keep me on my toes with the garden hose.
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LUCC
post Aug 1 2017, 10:07 AM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Aug 1 2017, 10:46 AM) *
Get ready for a dry period for the next few weeks in NWNJ, I'm planting a large section of grass so I'm almost certain that mother nature will keep me on my toes with the garden hose.

Any looking at the medium range the rainy weekend has changed to mid 80s and sunny........


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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kpk33x
post Aug 1 2017, 11:35 AM
Post #406




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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Aug 1 2017, 07:08 AM) *
Geez, like a quarter of an inch for the month at the dirty LEW.

Attached Image


I was looking at this earlier. We actually had 4.67", which put us a third of an inch above normal. It is amazing how quickly the amounts dropped off as I went east.

Over 2.6" of this came from the severe event on the 1st. We also picked up about an inch from storms on the 18th that must have missed you. Other than that it was the two events where you got maybe 0.1" and I got 0.4-0.5". In between it was a few stray hundredths of an inch.



--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
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MaineJay
post Aug 2 2017, 03:47 AM
Post #407




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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Aug 1 2017, 12:35 PM) *
I was looking at this earlier. We actually had 4.67", which put us a third of an inch above normal. It is amazing how quickly the amounts dropped off as I went east.

Over 2.6" of this came from the severe event on the 1st. We also picked up about an inch from storms on the 18th that must have missed you. Other than that it was the two events where you got maybe 0.1" and I got 0.4-0.5". In between it was a few stray hundredths of an inch.



The convection just dies as it moves of the high terrain onto the coastal plain, or that's been a theme this summer. Some areas not far from me have received some heavy downpours, it's just more "miss" than "hit". Definitely not as bad as last year, but the grass is still burning.

You can almost see the topography on the rainfall departure.
Attached Image


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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NorEaster07
post Aug 3 2017, 04:46 AM
Post #408




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Grass starting turning brown finally. Much later than usual. Dry period started around Mid July. More dry days then wet days. Bring on the next drought! tongue.gif Judging by the models, looks like we still got some wet chances coming up next 14 days.

Line of storms yesterday stayed away from the immediate coast. Was fascinating to watch all the cells that developed just die off as it approached. Only a shower here but heavier rains to the south and west. Once the 24hr reports come in I'll post. Should be interesting to see.
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stretchct
post Oct 2 2017, 10:52 AM
Post #409




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Was hoping not to drag this one up again, but seeing neighbors drilling wells had me curious
Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image


Wouldn't mind a gentle, moisture laden system to make a visit.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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so_whats_happeni...
post Oct 2 2017, 11:01 AM
Post #410




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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 31 2017, 02:20 PM) *
I would say its held fairly well, June was rather dry outside of the tropical system that came in and even May with the constant cloudiness only produced about normal of 2.7" for the month july well has been rather wet down this way from a random summer nor easter, now I see how it evolves in the summer time and might be a little different for next time. We received 4.71" from one small slow moving thunderstorm complex about a week or so ago at MDT which put us close to 10" for july, very impressive to say the least but that certainly did not all soak into the ground lol. While I would like to call it completely over I just still have thoughts of maybe this might just be holding on. Surface conditions have normalized for sure as we should be seeing drying grass and dust kicking up from the surface but everything is a lush green. Its well under the surface where the waters percolate down that always needs to be watched with the heavy rainfalls the ground cant handle that type of flow which ultimately leads to flooding as many have seen, basically the top layer cant push down that rain that has fallen quick enough to be beneficial. So I would watch out for any stalled patterns of heat and humidity if and when it builds back in the ground moisture will surely add to the mugginess and go from there.

And hey if you are all in agreement ill give that to one of yall! tongue.gif I like winter forecasting over summer anyways everything tends to have much more of a concrete stance in fall and winter then summer. Prediciting if thunderstorms are going to happen is way to blotchy out side of a complex and even then the nature of those can always be a tough one.


It seems to be crawling back in unfortunately with sparse rains the last 1/3 of summer from about early august on many areas have not received any if at all in the way of rain since then and thus drought conditions seemed to have only been fixed surface wise as we creep back into it. Gotta love La nina in the mid atlantic. I would watch this into winter as we tend to have dry winters with la nina around this region maybe not so much further north but with a possibility of ridging holding on across the south and then poking its head up our way wont be hard to see the drought conditions spread.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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LUCC
post Oct 2 2017, 12:18 PM
Post #411




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No mention of rain in the 10 day for my area.....


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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telejunkie
post Oct 2 2017, 07:54 PM
Post #412




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Got some welcome rain here this weekend as D0 zone popped up overhead in last week's drought monitor update. Actually was a bit surprised it took that long as it 'felt to me' that we were approaching last year's dry level status, but last year never got all that dry imby as most stray showers seem to always clip me. Currently could definitely use some more rain though as creeks are still running very low. Forecast does look good though for removal.


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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MaineJay
post Oct 20 2017, 04:29 AM
Post #413




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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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I'd hate to either open end this thread or start a new one. Really need the rain next week to pan out.

I think it's funny that we are supposedly moving towards la Niña, the wettest year in many of these plots was 1998 a la Niña, I just don't know how significant la Niña really is for my weather. 🤔

GYX
QUOTE
Overall, the area
needs rainfall. Some rivers are at record lows for this time of
year and the fire weather threat continues to increase.
However,
GFS and ECMWF ensembles are in pretty good agreement with most
members showing a 1-3" rainfall across the region midweek into
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidities will drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s in
southeast New Hampshire and southwest Maine this afternoon along
with winds of 10 to 15 mph. This would come in just under
meteorological RFW conditions, and will elevate the threat of
wildfires.


Since June 1

PWM (-7.65")
Attached Image



GYX (-9.69")
Attached Image



Wiscasset (-12.81")
Attached Image



Drought monitor. Definite better than last year, but still very, very dry.
Attached Image


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Oct 20 2017, 05:29 AM


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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The Day After To...
post Oct 21 2017, 01:17 PM
Post #414




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From: Wappinger Falls, NY
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Oct 2 2017, 08:54 PM) *
Got some welcome rain here this weekend as D0 zone popped up overhead in last week's drought monitor update. Actually was a bit surprised it took that long as it 'felt to me' that we were approaching last year's dry level status, but last year never got all that dry imby as most stray showers seem to always clip me. Currently could definitely use some more rain though as creeks are still running very low. Forecast does look good though for removal.

How was your guys' summer in terms of brush/wildland fires?


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


FF/EMT

WX HOBBYIST
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