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> July 12-? Plains/MW/OV/GL Heat Wave, Ongoing and short, medium, and long-range forecasts (0-10 days)
ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 11 2017, 04:27 PM
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The current zonal flow will turn into a central US ridge. Dry heat (100-110+ degrees) will take over the Plains, while less hot/more humid conditions will be present to the east.

There are currently 80+ degree dew points in the corn belt, 100-110 degree heat index in the central Plains.


In the medium to long range, in addition to the central US ridge, there'll be a ++++NAO. Assuming it verifies, the stronger pressure gradient will result in a stronger jet stream along the north and northeast periphery of the ridge where hot and humid conditions will exist.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 11 2017, 04:34 PM


--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 11 2017, 09:00 PM
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85 degree dew point in NE Nebraska?



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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melissa from ill...
post Jul 11 2017, 09:41 PM
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the heat index here in springfield (IL) got up to 105 today and its still sitting at 90 right now. the next few days here are supposed to be brutal.


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melissa from ill...
post Jul 12 2017, 03:22 PM
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Fair
93F
Humidity 64%
Wind Speed S 6 mph
Barometer 29.95 in (1013.4 mb)
Dewpoint 79F (26C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 110F (43C)
Last update 12 Jul 2:52 pm CDT


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joseph507123
post Jul 15 2017, 04:06 PM
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97F
Humidty: 55%
Heat index: 114F


It's hot here.


--------------------
2017

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 8

Tornado Watches: 4

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: 1''

Warmest Temperature: 99F

90F+ days: 21

Highest Heat Index: 116F
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Juniorrr
post Jul 17 2017, 05:58 PM
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Nice ring of fire setup
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ValpoSnow
post Jul 17 2017, 07:43 PM
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Large area of heat advisories/watches/warnings.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 17 2017, 09:04 PM
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I see the 5 day of storms has gone away, replaced with warmer temps. Saturday has storms forecast in the afternoon. High of 92 with a low of 75. You know it's gonna be bad when the low is only in the mid 70's.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 17 2017, 09:11 PM
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Absolutely classic ring of fire precip pattern



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 17 2017, 09:16 PM
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Euro has triple digit highs for all of Oklahoma, Missouri, most of Kansas, most of S Illinois. Also has not a drop of rain for central IL. Enjoy that.

It has one day of mid-upper 90's for SW OH. 99 degrees for Cincinnati, 97 for Hamilton, 95 for Dayton.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 17 2017, 09:19 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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WeatherMonger
post Jul 18 2017, 07:05 AM
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QUOTE
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-182100-
/O.CON.KILX.EH.A.0001.170719T1700Z-170723T0100Z/
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-
Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-
Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Galesburg, Toulon, Peoria, Lacon, Eureka,
Canton, Pekin, Bloomington, Normal, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln,
Clinton, Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown,
Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville,
Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris,
Shelbyville, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson,
Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville
337 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures each day will reach the lower
to mid 90s, with the hottest readings from about Springfield
westward.

* HEAT INDEX...Afternoon heat index values will range from 100 to
110 degrees each day, with the highest values likely on Thursday
and Friday.

* IMPACTS...The effects of heat are cumulative, and worsen the
longer a heat wave lasts. People without access to air
conditioning, or those that are working or playing outdoors,
are most likely to be impacted by the heat. Heat exhaustion or
heat stroke are possible if work or play is too strenuous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Excessive Heat Watch means that a prolonged period of hot
temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and
high humidity will combine to create a DANGEROUS SITUATION in
which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay
in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on
relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 18 2017, 07:11 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 17 2017, 09:11 PM) *
Absolutely classic ring of fire precip pattern


Almost going too far north to benefit anyone outside of the GL, pretty intense heat bubble

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 18 2017, 02:37 PM
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Don't mean to intrude on your thread from the east but this is just crazy.

KDOV 181858Z 11009KT 10SM CLR 30/29 A3005 RMK AO2A SLP179 T02950292 $
KDOV 181758Z 09006KT 10SM FEW170 30/30 A3007 RMK AO2A SLP186 T02970297 10297 20227 58012 $

85/85 right now in Dover many places upper 70s low 80s around the area.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 18 2017, 02:44 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 18 2017, 03:37 PM) *
Don't mean to intrude on your thread from the east but this is just crazy.

KDOV 181858Z 11009KT 10SM CLR 30/29 A3005 RMK AO2A SLP179 T02950292 $
KDOV 181758Z 09006KT 10SM FEW170 30/30 A3007 RMK AO2A SLP186 T02970297 10297 20227 58012 $

85/85 right now in Dover many places upper 70s low 80s around the area.

Do you think it's possible that there's some errors? I see the 85/85, but the stations around it have DPs in the low-mid 70's.

I know evapotranspiration can be a localized thing, so that's why I'm not ruling it out. But usually when the conditions are there for evapotranspiration (wet soil, sun), it exists in the surrounding areas as well UNLESS there was an intense nearly stationary storm over that area.

It also seems a little suspicious that there's been 100% humidity for the past 4 hours.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 18 2017, 02:45 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 18 2017, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
307 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

...An Extended Period of Very Hot Weather is on the Way...

ILZ036-040>042-047>054-061-062-066>068-071>073-190400-
/O.UPG.KILX.EH.A.0001.170719T1700Z-170723T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KILX.EH.W.0001.170719T1700Z-170723T0100Z/
Fulton-Schuyler-Mason-Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Shelby-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-
Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Canton, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln,
Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville, Springfield,
Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, Shelbyville, Greenup, Effingham,
Newton, Robinson, Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville
307 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
CDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued an Excessive
Heat Warning, which is in effect from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT
Saturday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect.

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures will reach the middle 90s
Wednesday through Saturday.

* HEAT INDEX...With dewpoints rising well into the 70s, afternoon
heat index readings will peak from 105 to 110 degrees each day.

* IMPACTS...The effects of heat are cumulative, and worsen the
longer a heat wave lasts. People without access to air
conditioning, or those that are working or playing outdoors,
are most likely to be impacted by the heat. Heat exhaustion or
heat stroke are possible if work or play is too strenuous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of the
heat and high humidity will create a DANGEROUS SITUATION in which
heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an
air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on
relatives and neighbors.

Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during
hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a
matter of minutes.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 18 2017, 10:19 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 18 2017, 03:44 PM) *
Do you think it's possible that there's some errors? I see the 85/85, but the stations around it have DPs in the low-mid 70's.

I know evapotranspiration can be a localized thing, so that's why I'm not ruling it out. But usually when the conditions are there for evapotranspiration (wet soil, sun), it exists in the surrounding areas as well UNLESS there was an intense nearly stationary storm over that area.

It also seems a little suspicious that there's been 100% humidity for the past 4 hours.


Not sure there may be a possibility the dp is reading a little higher considering hitting 100% is really hard unless there is a shower nearby. What I did notice was it is auto so no person monitoring it and went back and forth between drizzle and rain earlier some how may be getting wet by something?

I know in that portion of Delaware there is just tons and tons of cornfields and location near Delaware Bay and Chesapeake on the other side. I usually look at eastern shore or down near Oc md or over the bay in NJ and they all seem to have mid to upper 70s throughout the day some over on Eastern shore near 80-82.

But as you said weird it was at 100% most of the day. Keep an eye and see if it changes earlier that night or late yesterday had dps sensible like mid 60s.

I take back the no manned station it shows only hours around changeover where it went auto but someone was there so either they haven't called something in or it might be an actual ob

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jul 18 2017, 10:24 PM


--------------------
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 18 2017, 10:21 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 18 2017, 11:19 PM) *
Not sure there may be a possibility the dp is reading a little higher considering hitting 100% is really hard unless there is a shower nearby. What I did notice was it is auto so no person monitoring it and went back and forth between drizzle and rain earlier some how may be getting wet by something?

I know in that portion of Delaware there is just tons and tons of cornfields and location near Delaware Bay and Chesapeake on the other side. I usually look at eastern shore or down near Oc md or over the bay in NJ and they all seem to have mid to upper 70s throughout the day some over on Eastern shore near 80-82.

But as you said weird it was at 100% most of the day. Keep an eye and see if it changes earlier that night or late yesterday had dps sensible like mid 60s.


Crazy thing is temp is corresponding with the dp measurement as it barely got above 85 many other places saw dps in the mid 70s and got close to 90 who knows.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 18 2017, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 18 2017, 11:19 PM) *
Not sure there may be a possibility the dp is reading a little higher considering hitting 100% is really hard unless there is a shower nearby. What I did notice was it is auto so no person monitoring it and went back and forth between drizzle and rain earlier some how may be getting wet by something?

I know in that portion of Delaware there is just tons and tons of cornfields and location near Delaware Bay and Chesapeake on the other side. I usually look at eastern shore or down near Oc md or over the bay in NJ and they all seem to have mid to upper 70s throughout the day some over on Eastern shore near 80-82.

But as you said weird it was at 100% most of the day. Keep an eye and see if it changes earlier that night or late yesterday had dps sensible like mid 60s.

Excellent point.

Regardless, mid-70 dew points were found all over the Mid-Atlantic and northeast, which is quite impressive.

Seeing upper 70 dew points later this week. That'll be fun.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Snow____
post Jul 20 2017, 12:55 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 18 2017, 11:24 PM) *
Excellent point.

Regardless, mid-70 dew points were found all over the Mid-Atlantic and northeast, which is quite impressive.

Seeing upper 70 dew points later this week. That'll be fun.

You can see where the heaviest rains have been over the past couple weeks.


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WeatherMonger
post Jul 20 2017, 04:36 PM
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QUOTE
Fair
96F
36C
Humidity 56%
Wind Speed SW 10 G 18 mph
Barometer 29.97 in (1014.1 mb)
Dewpoint 78F (26C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 113F (45C)
Last update 20 Jul 3:52 pm CDT
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