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> July 17-? Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather
grennels
post Jul 19 2017, 09:19 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Jul 19 2017, 09:37 PM) *
It's a shame no one is interested in the MCS blasting through N IL at the moment.

If it were in Ohio this board would be lighting up like crazy! lol




I've been watching it. Is that a derecho trying to form? will it reach northwest Ohio?


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Juniorrr
post Jul 19 2017, 10:18 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Jul 19 2017, 09:37 PM) *
It's a shame no one is interested in the MCS blasting through N IL at the moment.

If it were in Ohio this board would be lighting up like crazy! lol

I've been watching it but nothing to comment, just a generic MCS laugh.gif Looks like it reached its peak before hitting N IL. Won't make it here though.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jul 19 2017, 10:19 PM
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grennels
post Jul 19 2017, 10:19 PM
Post #23




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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jul 19 2017, 11:18 PM) *
I've been watching it but nothing to comment, just a generic MCS laugh.gif




Bow echo? Moving darn fast?


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Juniorrr
post Jul 19 2017, 10:44 PM
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QUOTE(grennels @ Jul 19 2017, 11:19 PM) *
Bow echo? Moving darn fast?

Yea it is but doubt it makes it to OH in one piece, maybe some cold rain when everyones a sleep.
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snowlover2
post Jul 19 2017, 11:02 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jul 19 2017, 11:44 PM) *
Yea it is but doubt it makes it to OH in one piece, maybe some cold rain when everyones a sleep.

Should leave a boundary for tomorrow though.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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ValpoSnow
post Jul 20 2017, 07:11 AM
Post #26




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Some decent wind with that line last night. Areas NW of Chicago saw some wind damage.

Surprised to wake up this morning to thunder! More rain, which is needed from Chicago to the south suburbs, but not in the northern burbs!
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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2017, 10:21 AM
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Looks like i'm in the slight risk now for today.


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Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

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Juniorrr
post Jul 20 2017, 11:02 AM
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Wasn't expecting the rain in IN from a complex behind the MCS last night. See if it makes it here and what will it do for tonight's boundary chances.
Models continue to paint multiple MCS chances all over the region in the next 72 hrs.

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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2017, 11:33 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jul 20 2017, 12:02 PM) *
Wasn't expecting the rain in IN from a complex behind the MCS last night. See if it makes it here and what will it do for tonight's boundary chances.
Models continue to paint multiple MCS chances all over the region in the next 72 hrs.

Especially the 12z 3k NAM on Saturday evening/night.

There's this
Attached Image


And a few hours later at the end of the run
Attached Image


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2017, 11:37 AM
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Slight risk expanded south some in Ohio.
Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES TO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley region to
the Northeast, and across parts of the northern High Plains.

...Portions of the Midwest to the Ohio Valley region to the
Northeast...
The remnants of a persistent convective cluster are crossing central
Indiana around mid-day, and have shown some signs of
intensification. Further development of this activity could occur as
it spreads eastward/southeastward into Ohio and vicinity, amid a
moderately unstable air mass with 25-40 kt of effective shear. A
separate cluster of convection will likely spread across parts of
southern NY, northern PA, and vicinity amid stronger deep shear and
in a regime of warm/moist advection. Additional convective
development will be likely along a cold front trailing southwestward
into Ohio, with activity subsequently spreading eastward with time.
Widely scattered damaging wind gusts, and perhaps marginally severe
hail, may accompany all of the aforementioned activity. However, the
convective evolution is overall uncertain, as ascent is primarily
being driven by convectively-influenced mass fields at the meso-beta
scale.

To the west of the Indiana/Ohio area of convection across parts of
the Midwest, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
is anticipated along a trailing outflow boundary and surface
front -- enhanced at the intersection of these boundaries (IA
vicinity). Strong buoyancy may support isolated severe hail/wind,
though weak deep shear will tend to limit convective organization.

Also, some isolated severe hail/wind risk may affect parts of New
England -- aided by long mid/high-level hodographs, though weak
buoyancy will mitigate the overall severe risk.

...Portions of the northern High Plains...
Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon along
a sharpening dryline in eastern MT vicinity with activity spreading
into portions of the Dakotas. This will occur as a mid-level speed
maximum crests an antecedent ridge aloft, aiding in its
de-amplification. Lee cyclogenesis will contribute to a vertically
veering wind profile east of the dryline, with 40-50 kt of effective
shear supporting supercell structures. Severe hail/wind may occur,
and -- though uncertain at this time -- some significant severe hail
risk could evolve. While convective cloud bases will tend to be
quite high, a tornado cannot be ruled out given sufficiently curved
low-level hodographs -- particularly in proximity to a developing
warm front from northeast MT into northwest and west-central ND.
Convection may continue into the overnight hours with some hail risk
as it moves across parts of the Dakotas and vicinity, though the
overall severe risk will be lessening.

..Cohen/Coniglio.. 07/20/2017


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First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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Juniorrr
post Jul 20 2017, 06:29 PM
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Some pretty good parameters tomorrow and into Saturday for a lot here.

WRF-ARW shows a supercell tomorrow afternoon with a pressure right on the hook. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jul 20 2017, 06:32 PM
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styropyro
post Jul 20 2017, 08:42 PM
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A severe storm popped up in SE Iowa and is basically stationary. Radar estimates over 4" in an hour in spots. Would be crazy to witness a multi-hour severe thunderstorm. Hopefully I get hit by something here in central IL...currently sitting at 89F with a dew point of 82F. ohmy.gif

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snowlover2
post Jul 20 2017, 10:05 PM
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0z 3k NAM trying to fire a few cells here in a few hours.
Attached Image


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2017, 12:49 AM
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Large enhanced risk. 30% hatched hail in the NW corner, 30% wind for the rest.


QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...

..SUMMARY

A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL APPEARS LIKELY FROM EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY.
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE OTHERWISE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AS WELL AS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.

..SYNOPSIS

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN CANADA, WITH
50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW SPREADING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. A BELT
OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL, WITH SECONDARY PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE DAKOTAS LATE.

AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS,
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS MN AND WI. A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, SUPPORTING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME DAMAGING.

...NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN...
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS IA INTO SOUTHERN MN
FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE WARM FRONT, WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL WIND OR
HAIL THREAT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL. BEHIND THIS
EARLY ACTIVITY, STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING AND A
GRADUALLY LIFTING WARM FRONT. NEW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z
ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WI, AIDED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KT. ANY OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT FROM EARLY
STORMS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE WARM FRONT POSITION. STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE CONTENT SUGGESTS MCS POTENTIAL, WITH
SUBSEQUENT SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH EARLY ACTIVITY IF IT
HAPPENS TO BE DISCRETE. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

FARTHER WEST, ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS ND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON, AFTER 21Z, NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. HERE,
STRONG HEATING ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLE EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY, AS STORMS WILL BE CELLULAR. WITH
TIME, A SEVERE MCS IS EXPECTED, TREKKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MN
WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..NORTHERN MAINE

VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A LARGE
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH. SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
LONG HODOGRAPHS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY, DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F WILL REMAIN, ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING WHICH
WILL RESULT MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2017, 01:09 AM
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Gotta love this kind of pattern. So much severe weather.



QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST U.S. SLIGHT RISK AREAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe weather risk is apparent from portions of the
northern and central Plains east across the Midwest to the mid
Atlantic region. A few severe storms may also occur across portions
of southern Arizona.

...Synopsis...
Moderately strong west-northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to
persist across the northern tier of the U.S. this period, with
numerous small-scale disturbances embedded therein. A stronger
short-wave trough/low is forecast to move out of south-central
Canada and across the north-central U.S. with time.

At the surface, a migratory low is forecast to move along a
pre-existing front across the Midwest states, eventually reaching
the mid-Atlantic/southern New England coast. A weaker low/frontal
system is expected to shift across the upper Mississippi Valley
region.

...Midwest to the mid Atlantic...
A large area of convection is forecast to be ongoing over the
southern Great Lakes area and vicinity early in the period, which
should shift east-southeast with time. While some severe risk may
persist with the ongoing convection, new storm development is
forecast on the southern and western flank of this convection, as
afternoon heating of a very moist boundary layer supports
mixed-layer CAPE values in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range across much
of the Midwest and into the central Appalachians. Multiple
bands/clusters of storms will likely traverse the area through the
afternoon and evening, before convection diminishes in coverage and
intensity late in the period. In the mean time, risk for damaging
winds and hail will exist with stronger storms/storm clusters moving
quickly east-southeast across the region.

...Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity...
In the wake of overnight/early-period convection, some
heating/destabilization is forecast across the upper Mississippi
Valley area in advance of the compact upper low/short-wave trough
progged to be shifting east-southeast out of the Canadian Prairies.
Ascent -- focused near a weak surface frontal system -- should
support scattered storm development during the afternoon and
evening, spreading east toward the western upper Great Lakes area
with time. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow -- sufficient for
updraft organization -- suggests potential for locally damaging
winds and hail with stronger cells, lingering well into the evening
hours.

...Southern Arizona...
Daytime heating of a moist boundary layer progged to reside over
southern Arizona will support airmass destabilization, with ample
high-based CAPE to support fairly widespread storm development over
the higher terrain. With mid-level ridging to gradually strengthen
over the Great Basin, some enhancement of northeast mid-level flow
could eventually allow storms to organize/congeal, and spread off
the rim into the lower deserts. As such, evaporatively enhanced
downdrafts could result in locally damaging winds from late
afternoon through the evening, and possibly into the overnight hours
before convection slowly diminishes.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NWOhioChaser
post Jul 21 2017, 09:29 AM
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NW Ohio keeps getting shafted out of the slight risk area. We were in one for yesterday, today, and tomorrow but now parameters only look good for tomorrow. Just hot and muggy....bleh.
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Juniorrr
post Jul 21 2017, 10:21 AM
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Well we had a MCS this morning, apparently thousands without power. I was woken by the thunder but not wind.
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snowlover2
post Jul 21 2017, 10:23 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jul 21 2017, 11:21 AM) *
Well we had a MCS this morning, apparently thousands without power. I was woken by the thunder but not wind.

Woke me too and it was warned. Think I missed the wind part of it as well.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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Juniorrr
post Jul 21 2017, 10:29 AM
Post #39




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 21 2017, 11:23 AM) *
Woke me too and it was warned. Think I missed the wind part of it as well.

Before I went to bed I had a feeling this small complex in NW IL would turn into a MCS. Right in the spot we get em.

Need to watch for another MCS today for N IL into N IN and NW OH late tonight.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2017, 11:31 AM
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Serious evening MCS possible tonight. May be some supercells ahead of it.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 21 2017, 11:31 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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