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> July 17-? Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather
ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2017, 11:35 AM
Post #41




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2 enhanced risk areas now with 2 5% tornado areas.



QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH A PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF MAINE...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...

..SUMMARY

SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE TO VERY HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND POSSIBLY INTO WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND MIGHT EVOLVE
FROM IOWA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

..DAKOTAS THROUGH MN

STORMS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ARE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT AND
COULD POSE SOME RISK FOR HAIL. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ALONG EASTERN FRINGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SAMPLED BY THE BIS 12Z RAOB. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INITIALLY, BUT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR
MORE CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO MN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS, BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND.

..UPPER MIDWEST AREA

A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL IA SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND IN. LARGE MCS PERSISTS
WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK ARE IN RESPONSE TO MODIFICATIONS ON THE MESOSCALE
BY THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS. PRIMARY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE
ENHANCED CATEGORY SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY WARM, MOIST INFLOW FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR. SATELLITE DATA SHOW A COUPLE OF MCVS. ONE IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST SD AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHWEST MN, AND THESE FEATURES
COULD PLAY A ROLE IN STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION
RESIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, AND
0-6 KM SHEAR PROFILES AROUND 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF WIND DAMAGE IN AND NEAR THE
ENHANCED OUTLOOK FROM IA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.
HAVE INTRODUCED A 5% TORNADO AREA WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MIGRATORY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2017, 11:58 AM
Post #42




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Shortwave ridge seen over SE WI/Lake Michigan will likely cause the current MCS to disintegrate, setting the stage for some destabilization from the Corn belt through the rest of the OV. Shortwave trough in South Dakota will move in later today and cause the event for the southern enhanced risk area

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 21 2017, 12:00 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2017, 01:10 PM
Post #43




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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





CVG sitting at 88/75. Middletown (~30-40 miles north) is sitting at 77/72. What boundary? tongue.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2017, 01:26 PM
Post #44




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 20,985
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





94/81 in southern IL. 115 HI. Yuck, no thanks.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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Juniorrr
post Jul 21 2017, 01:30 PM
Post #45




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Posts: 11,711
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 21 2017, 02:10 PM) *
CVG sitting at 88/75. Middletown (~30-40 miles north) is sitting at 77/72. What boundary? tongue.gif

Feels okay here, coming down to Owensville east of Cincy in a bit, I shall feel the difference wink.gif

Meanwhile a zombie remnant MCS in IN barreling east. Sucks there isn't much for it to work with but oh well. Its tail has some dynamics to work with in W/SW IN

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jul 21 2017, 01:32 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2017, 01:36 PM
Post #46




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jul 21 2017, 02:30 PM) *
Feels okay here, coming down to Owensville east of Cincy in a bit, I shall feel the difference wink.gif

Meanwhile a zombie remnant MCS in IN barreling east. Sucks there isn't much for it to work with but oh well.

Mini supercell has popped in extreme western IN. That's due west of that MCV.

Destabilization should be rapid, especially when the sun comes out, due to the airmass to our south and the not-so-terrible mid-level lapse rates.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2017, 01:37 PM
Post #47




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Obvious as day outflow boundary set up across Iowa. Will enhance tornado threat for any supercells that exist through there. Otherwise should guide the MCS.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 21 2017, 01:40 PM
Post #48




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 20,985
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





May be hard to see but the instability gradient is much more curved than the enhanced risk area. SPC must be banking on that extremely unstable airmass advecting north. Otherwise may see the MCS have a more southeasterly track.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 21 2017, 01:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowlover2
post Jul 21 2017, 01:43 PM
Post #49




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 17,056
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





New day 2 unchanged but mention of upgrade for OH/PA possible.
Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AND VICINITY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD AREA
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe weather risk is apparent from portions of the
northern and central Plains east across the Midwest to the mid
Atlantic region. A few severe storms may also occur across portions
of southern Arizona and along the Nebraska/Kansas border.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level belt of quasi-zonal flow will extend from the northern
Rockies eastward across the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley
and on to the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day Saturday. A shortwave
trough will migrate from southern Manitoba to the western Great
Lakes throughout the forecast period as well. At the surface, one
or two MCSs will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across
northern Illinois/southern Lower Michigan and vicinity. This
activity will migrate eastward and augment the position of a surface
boundary, which should generally extend from west-to-east from
northern Kansas into Indiana/Ohio and on to New Jersey. Farther
north, weak surface cyclogenesis will occur across Minnesota during
the day, eventually developing into Wisconsin after dark in
conjunction with the aforementioned mid-level shortwave.

...Illinois eastward to the Mid-Atlantic...
Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the evolution of a morning
MCS that should be located in the general vicinity of northern
Illinois/southern Michigan at the beginning of the forecast period.
This activity should propagate eastward through noon and pose a
marginal risk of damaging wind gusts during the morning hours.
Parts of Lower Michigan may not destabilize much in the wake of
morning convection and attendant severe probabilities have been
reduced in this outlook as a result.

Later in the day, models suggest some re-intensification of the MCS
and/or remnant boundaries from Pennsylvania westward to Indiana/Ohio
as moderate to strong surface-based destabilization occurs within
the undisturbed pre-convective airmass. Deep shear profiles favor
storm organization, with an evolution into forward-propagating
linear segments expected into the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail are likely in this region - and portions of
Ohio/Pennsylvania may need an upgrade in later outlooks once
finer-scale details of convective evolution become clearer.

Furthermore, an isolated tornado threat may evolve in Pennsylvania,
where low-level shear parameters (although modest) become maximized
in the early evening due to veering of flow with height.

Isolated to scattered convection should develop as far west as the
Mississippi River in Illinois along and ahead of a surface boundary
across the region and within a strongly unstable airmass (MUCAPE
values exceeding 4000 J/kg). 15%/slight risk probabilities have
been maintained in the area to address this threat.

...Minnesota/Wisconsin and vicinity...
Insolation and ascent associated with a well-timed, approaching
mid-level shortwave will foster development of scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon (especially across northern Minnesota
and into northwestern Wisconsin. More isolated activity may develop
farther south toward the Twin Cities area. Although surface flow
should be veered to west/northwesterly across the region, warming
surface temperature and 70s F dewpoints will aid in moderate to
strong destabilization (around 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE). Deep shear
favors updraft organization, with scattered hail and wind-producing
thunderstorms. Any remnant low-level boundaries from early morning
convection may augment low-level shear in the region and result in
brief updraft rotation as well. With time, this activity should
spread eastward toward the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, although a
loss of daytime heating should result in a lessening of the severe
threat with eastward extent.

...Southern Nebraska/northern Kansas eastward to the Quad Cities
area...
A surface boundary should migrate into the region from the north
over the course of the afternoon, with strong destabilization
expected along and ahead of this feature. Scattered, loosely
organized convection should develop across the region during peak
heating hours and pose a damaging wind and hail threat - with
perhaps some greater organization into forward-propagating linear
segments possible in eastern Iowa/Missouri where deep shear should
be somewhat stronger. Farther west, higher-based activity should
unfold given greater boundary layer mixing (near 100F surface
temperatures and 50s F dewpoints), fostering more of a damaging
downburst wind threat. This threat should wane some after dark with
the onset of nocturnal boundary layer cooling.

...Central/southern Arizona...
20-25 knot northeasterly mid-level flow, along with moist
low/mid-level profiles and modest destabilization, should foster
development of scattered thunderstorms initially along higher
terrain. These storms will have a tendency to propagate into lower
elevations with time, posing an isolated threat for damaging wind
gusts into the afternoon and evening hours.

..Cook.. 07/21/2017


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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Undertakerson
post Jul 21 2017, 03:12 PM
Post #50




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STP of 3-4+ in IO?

MesoDisco out for that region

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1380.html

Snippet:
QUOTE
Favorable low-level hodograph curvature
near the boundary will support a risk for a tornado or two. With
time, one or two convective clusters should gradually evolve with a
more concentrated risk for damaging winds into the evening hours,
supported by a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet.
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BrenK10
post Jul 21 2017, 03:39 PM
Post #51




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loved the storm this morning! very windy here.... The trees in the neighborhood just keep getting a beating this year. Trees/Branches breaking. The guys who did our trees few weeks back cause wind damage are making their runs today through the neighborhood. they sure making a killing this year
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snowlover2
post Jul 21 2017, 04:06 PM
Post #52




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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jul 21 2017, 02:30 PM) *
Feels okay here, coming down to Owensville east of Cincy in a bit, I shall feel the difference wink.gif

Meanwhile a zombie remnant MCS in IN barreling east. Sucks there isn't much for it to work with but oh well. Its tail has some dynamics to work with in W/SW IN

Looks like it starting to take a turn SE toward the Dayton area once it hit the IN/OH border.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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ValpoSnow
post Jul 21 2017, 04:55 PM
Post #53




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Watching this small, but severe (and intensifying) storm that's head toward Chicago. Warning says to watch for TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL and 60 MPH + Winds.
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ValpoSnow
post Jul 21 2017, 05:20 PM
Post #54




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It's going to be a close call here as to whether it hits me, but it has definitely weakened a lot, which is disappointing.
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Snow____
post Jul 21 2017, 06:29 PM
Post #55




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Storm developing to my west. Hope it hits me.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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ValpoSnow
post Jul 21 2017, 07:37 PM
Post #56




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Hail from the storm I posted about earlier in Schaumburg, IL (NW suburb).
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ValpoSnow
post Jul 21 2017, 07:37 PM
Post #57




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Photo above is from WGN.

Latest HRRR run slams Chicago.



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Juniorrr
post Jul 21 2017, 11:33 PM
Post #58




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Lots of flooding again on the IL/WI border from training. Nice bows here and there too. Was on a severe cell on the OH/KY border earlier today visiting a friend, nice structures and lightning.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 22 2017, 12:49 AM
Post #59




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An MCS is expected to form from the training convection near Chicago and push through Ohio tomorrow morning. Big red flag is the stratiform rain that's left in its tracks.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 22 2017, 12:53 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 22 2017, 12:59 AM
Post #60




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Posts: 20,985
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453







QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Areas affected...Central Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 220553Z - 220700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Bowing segment in northwest IN could persist for a few
hours while moving southeastward, with an attendant damaging-wind
threat. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon
downstream into central IN.

DISCUSSION...A bowing segment is moving southeastward at about 45 kt
into northwest IN. This convection will likely persist for a few
more hours as it moves along the immediate cool side of a
northwest-southeast outflow boundary across central IN. A feed of
rich low-level moisture (mid 70s dewpoints) from the west will
maintain the convection as it forward propagates along the
boundary/buoyancy gradient in the zone of stronger storm-relative
inflow. Given the organization of the convection in combination
with the moderate-strong buoyancy feed and modestly enhanced
vertical shear, the threat for a few damaging gusts could continue
for a few more hours. As such, a new severe thunderstorm watch will
be proposed shortly.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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