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> July 21-24, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storms, Forecasts and OBS
Undertakerson
post Jul 22 2017, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 22 2017, 04:30 PM) *
Well I'll be making the rounds outside after this passes. Can see the stones in front of my shed are underwater currently. At least past half inch so far.

Yep - you're being blobbed. Smack dab in the middle

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phillyfan
post Jul 22 2017, 03:37 PM
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Well there's one inch in 30 minutes.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 22 2017, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 22 2017, 04:30 PM) *
Well I'll be making the rounds outside after this passes. Can see the stones in front of my shed are underwater currently. At least past half inch so far.


I'm worried about Reading. Just check records, 1 day rainfall record is 2.1". Batten down.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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phillyfan
post Jul 22 2017, 03:44 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 22 2017, 04:39 PM) *
I'm worried about Reading. Just check records, 1 day rainfall record is 2.1". Batten down.

Just looked it up Reading daily record for today is 2.19" in 2013. Sky starting to brighten to the west should be winding down soon.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 22 2017, 03:45 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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Undertakerson
post Jul 22 2017, 03:45 PM
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HRRR thinks another line forms before 6-7 tonight. I was wondering how that might be - when the sun came out in full and made me think, well maybe.
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rtcemc
post Jul 22 2017, 04:11 PM
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Yours Phillyfan. Miss to the south here. Just boring rain; no t &l.
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phillyfan
post Jul 22 2017, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jul 22 2017, 05:11 PM) *
Yours Phillyfan. Miss to the south here. Just boring rain; no t &l.

Wasn't much thunder at all. Now warned in Chester:

QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
DEC003-PAC011-029-045-091-101-222200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0116.170722T2118Z-170722T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
518 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
North central New Castle County in northern Delaware...
South central Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...
Southern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Northwestern Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 600 PM EDT

* At 516 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Elverson to near Parkesburg, moving southeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Doppler radar and emergency management. Lancaster County
911 center reported downed trees when the storm moved
through Ephrata and New Holland.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Philadelphia, Wilmington, West Chester, Norristown, Chester,
Phoenixville, West Norriton, East Norriton, Coatesville, Westtown,
Downingtown, Conshohocken, Swarthmore, Kennett Square,
Collegeville, Royersford, Jenkintown, Narberth, Parkesburg and East
Lansdowne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

In addition to damaging winds...frequent cloud to ground lightning
is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Remember...if you can hear thunder...you are close enough to be
struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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rtcemc
post Jul 22 2017, 04:30 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 22 2017, 05:20 PM) *
Wasn't much thunder at all. Now warned in Chester:

Ugh, keeps diving south.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 22 2017, 04:31 PM
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Too wet on the ground. Guess the only thing to do is consume adult libation for the evening. cool.gif
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rtcemc
post Jul 22 2017, 04:37 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 22 2017, 05:31 PM) *
Too wet on the ground. Guess the only thing to do is consume adult libation for the evening. cool.gif

OK
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Undertakerson
post Jul 22 2017, 05:16 PM
Post #51




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This cell is said to have rotation - up in Millersburg and heading s/e - probably misses just to my east.

Event:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Schuylkill County in central Pennsylvania...
Southwestern Northumberland County in central Pennsylvania...
Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania...
Northeastern Perry County in south central Pennsylvania...
Western Lebanon County in south central Pennsylvania...

*
QUOTE
Until 700 PM EDT

* At 607 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Port Trevorton to near New Buffalo, moving east at
20 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Palmyra, Annville, Linglestown, Hershey, Harper Tavern, Skyline
View, Beurys Lake, Lykens, Valley View and Urban.
This includes the following Interstates...
Interstate 78 from mile markers 0 to 4.
Interstate 81 from mile markers 73 to 115.
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
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phillyfan
post Jul 22 2017, 06:33 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 22 2017, 06:16 PM) *
This cell is said to have rotation - up in Millersburg and heading s/e - probably misses just to my east.

Event:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Schuylkill County in central Pennsylvania...
Southwestern Northumberland County in central Pennsylvania...
Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania...
Northeastern Perry County in south central Pennsylvania...
Western Lebanon County in south central Pennsylvania...

*

Round 2 has moved in here, looks like just rain showers.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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WEATHERFAN100
post Jul 23 2017, 12:10 AM
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Not a single drop fell imby. Hoping for another chance for later today (Sunday).

This post has been edited by WEATHERFAN100: Jul 23 2017, 12:11 AM


--------------------
-James
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kayosad
post Jul 23 2017, 12:43 AM
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Member No.: 14,926





Reports of a funnel cloud near Avon, PA just west of Lebanon. Doesn't look to be on the ground more than a few seconds.

Quick Touchdown

Another view
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 23 2017, 07:58 AM
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QUOTE(kayosad @ Jul 23 2017, 01:43 AM) *
Reports of a funnel cloud near Avon, PA just west of Lebanon. Doesn't look to be on the ground more than a few seconds.

Quick Touchdown

Another view


Wow very cool! They're neat when no one gets hurt. Had quite a slug of rain last night, and led to very pretty morning.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Undertakerson
post Jul 23 2017, 08:16 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 23 2017, 08:58 AM) *
Wow very cool! They're neat when no one gets hurt. Had quite a slug of rain last night, and led to very pretty morning.

I watched those cells, from atop Blue Mtn - as they passed just to my east. I saw some swirlies but not actual full rotations.

It was really nice, as I sat on the official Ridge Runner golf cart, to catch some of the outflow breezes from that particular cell - really made the evening quite splendid, despite the overall "rainy" feel.

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Undertakerson
post Jul 23 2017, 11:07 AM
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One more round to go through, possible FF Advisory later. Relief in sight

.
QUOTE
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NCAR ensemble CAPEs near 2000 J/kg and moderate
0-6km shear of around 30kts point toward a damaging wind and
hail threat this afternoon through early evening. Large scale
forcing ahead of upper trough should sustain convection through
late tonight and early Monday, despite a weakening trend after
sunset. CAMS indicate excessive rainfall is a possibility by
this evening in vicinity surface frontal boundary over the Susq
Valley. Flash Flood Watch may be required should confidence grow
in placement of heaviest rainfall axis...and if Lower Susq
continues to be favored (where FFG guidance is currently the
lowest).

Upper trough will pivot through on Monday, bringing a good
chance of additional showers/storms to northeast Pa, while large
scale subsidence in its wake is likely to suppress convection
across the southwest part of the state. With the exception of
northeast Pa, Monday should feature more sunshine than today, as
much lower PWAT air flows into the region.
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phillyfan
post Jul 23 2017, 11:25 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 23 2017, 12:07 PM) *
One more round to go through, possible FF Advisory later. Relief in sight

.

I'd say this is a pretty good write up from Mount Holly:

QUOTE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
950 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary extended from the southern Great Lakes to the mid
Atlantic states this morning with one low pressure system south of
Long Island, moving seaward. Another low will follow tonight,
passing south of Long Island on Monday. The cold front will trail
down into yet another low over the Delmarva Peninsula Monday night.
Canadian high pressure builds down into the northeast United States
Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front approaching from the northwest
late Thursday may be very slow to pass through the mid Atlantic
states next Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cloud cover is going to hang tough, owing to some northeasterly
flow that will seep into the region. KDIX is indicating an
outflow boundary from the aforementioned MCV that is sagging
slowly southward through central New Jersey (as of 930 am
located generally from near the Philadelphia International
Airport to Atlantic City). Winds become northeasterly to the
north of this boundary, and dew points are a few degrees lower.
Higher- resolution model output suggests this may continue
southward to approximately the Mason- Dixon Line through a
considerable portion of the day (at least a chunk of the morning
hours) - some showers continue to develop along this boundary
bur remain light. Models are notoriously too eager with
dissipating such boundaries or returning them northward. Bumped
down dew points considerably (around 3-5 degrees) north of the
Mason- Dixon Line today and re-oriented the winds to a more
northeasterly direction for a longer duration for these areas as
well. Guidance is noticeably cooler with highs today, and this
makes sense given the current observational trends. Will be
interesting to see how much clearing, if any, occurs today.

Regarding convective potential, the next in a series of midlevel
perturbations moves toward the region this afternoon and
tonight, and with somewhat more focused large-scale ascent
downstream in a weakly to negligibly capped environment,
scattered to widespread convection should develop this afternoon
to our west. The timing of its approach to our region looks
rather late in the day, and held off on higher PoPs to mostly
the tonight period. However, some storms may move into the far
western CWA by late afternoon. With the approach of stronger
westerlies as a larger-scale trough begins to amplify today,
vertical shear profiles will continue to improve. Think the main
question today will be degree of instability, with remnant cloud
cover and outflow boundaries likely making model depictions of
the thermodynamic environment mere pipe dreams.

However, southwesterly flow to the south/west of the area
should advect warm/moist air northeastward, allowing boundary-
layer based parcels to attain CAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg by
afternoon near/south of the convectively-reinforced surface
boundary in the southern Mid-Atlantic. Where this boundary ends
up is anyone`s guess (mine is south of consensus, based on the
past 24 hours of analysis). Should such instability materialize,
CAPE-shear parameter space is favorable for organized severe,
with downburst winds associated with bowing segments and/or
mesovortices embedded within convective segments/clusters the
main threat. Highly heterogeneous convective environment would
suggest that more organized (lengthier) lines of convection may
be hard to materialize, especially given the very moist boundary
layer hindering the development of somewhat stronger cold
pools. CAM guidance hints at such a scenario playing out, and
given pattern recognition and the past 24 hours as "analog
guidance", this increases confidence in at least the overall
mode of strong to severe convection this afternoon/evening -
again, should the stronger instability pan out.

With PWs 1.75+ inches (somewhat lower than the past 24 hours,
aided by somewhat drier midlevels and a southward push of the
convectively-induced surface boundary) and the potential for
strong updrafts should near-surface based instability
materialize, heavy rainfall is a threat with any of the stronger
storms today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
Tonight`s forecast could be metaphorically described as throwing
darts in the dark.

As convection from the west moves into the region overnight,
there is a clear signal from CAM guidance of developing a
mesoscale convective vortex on the north side of the convection,
with larger-scale influence via a developing/eastward-moving
surface low translating across the Mid-Atlantic during this
period (as the trough in the eastern Ohio Valley continues to
amplify). Some CAM depictions (and even some of the coarser
guidance) produce very alarming QPF during this period (with 3
to 6+ inches indicated in a corridor generally between I-78 and
I-80) as the MCV trudges eastward. This seems way overdone, and
the CAMs have had a history of that in the past 24 hours.

The concern is that the thermodynamic support just will not be
there (or, alternatively, will set up farther south) since the
convection occurring the past few hours has displaced the
surface boundary to far southern Virginia at this time. My
suspicion is that the higher side of the QPF distribution is a
low probability, but I suspect there will be a swath of heavy
rainfall totals (maybe 1-3 inches rather than 3-6) where
convective organization combines with large-scale support.
Regarding the latter, as the trough to the west amplifies, a
downstream 250-mb jet streak in New England provides substantial
upper-level divergence. Considerable warm/moist air will be
lofted above the zonally- oriented convectively-reinforced
boundary ... somewhere ... in the Mid-Atlantic region and
advected northward. Meanwhile, with antecedent heavy rainfall in
portions of the region (the Lehigh to Monmouth County corridor,
for instance), ingredients are in play for a flood event. Too
much uncertainty for a watch at this time, but flooding
potential is definitely a concern tonight. Stay tuned.

Temp forecast is a blend of MET/MAV MOS with some addition of
CAM 2-meter temperatures to account for effects from
precipitation.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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Undertakerson
post Jul 23 2017, 11:51 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 23 2017, 12:25 PM) *
I'd say this is a pretty good write up from Mount Holly:

Throwing darts in the dark? That may be the first time I've seen a WFO used such honest language.

QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
Tonight`s forecast could be [b]metaphorically described as throwing
darts in the dark.
[/
b]

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 23 2017, 11:51 AM
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Miller A
post Jul 23 2017, 12:41 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 23 2017, 12:25 PM) *
I'd say this is a pretty good write up from Mount Holly:

I got hung up on "...perturbations..."

This post has been edited by Miller A: Jul 23 2017, 12:42 PM


--------------------
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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