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> July 24-28 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level:Day 1 Enhanced Risk
snowlover2
post Jul 24 2017, 11:39 AM
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Next rounds of severe weather start today in the northern plains where a marginal risk in ND is.

Slight risk is introduced on day 2 in northern plains/upper MW.
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Day 3 slight risk for GL/OV areas.
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Day 4 could bring severe to OV.
QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good large-scale
agreement through roughly Day 6/Saturday, in depicting fairly
substantial amplification of the upper flow field. The eventual
result will be troughing/cyclonic flow covering the eastern half of
the U.S. and a large ridge over the West.

Prior to establishment of the longer-wavelength eastern trough, an
initial short-wave trough will advance steadily across the Great
Lakes and into the Northeast day 4/Thursday, accompanied by a
similarly progressing surface cold front. While the front should
focus a zone of showers and storms, questions regarding overall
degree of warm-sector instability exist. While the Ohio vicinity
may be a focus for somewhat greater severe risk given hints of ample
CAPE/shear, confidence is not great enough to add an areal highlight
at this time.


An isolated severe risk may also evolve across portions of the high
Plains region day 4, as a weak disturbance cresting the ridge may
enhance convective potential within a low-level upslope flow regime.
However,instability appears likely to remain limited across this
area as well.

As the front moves offshore day 5, and ridging amplifies days 5-6
over the west, the High Plains would likely remain the primary focus
for isolated severe storms. However, substantial/organized severe
risk is not evident at this time.

..Goss.. 07/24/2017


This post has been edited by snowlover2: Jul 25 2017, 01:11 AM


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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melissa from ill...
post Jul 25 2017, 12:50 PM
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AAAAAND we're out of the slight. Don't know why I was even remotely excited about the day 2.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 25 2017, 07:17 PM
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Unfortunate verification for the enhanced risk today. Too many cells popped and storm interaction was too much.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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melissa from ill...
post Jul 26 2017, 09:11 PM
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Here ya go Monger, itll miss me but you might get in on it.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Menard County in central Illinois...
Northwestern Sangamon County in central Illinois...

* Until 945 PM CDT

* At 902 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Petersburg,
or 16 miles southwest of Mason City, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Sherman, Rochester, Riverton, Petersburg, Athens,
Williamsville, Ashland, Pleasant Plains, Greenview, Tallula,
Jerome, Southern View, Leland Grove, Grandview, Spaulding, Clear
Lake, Cantrall, Atterberry and Salisbury.


--------------------
"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 26 2017, 09:14 PM
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Yawn

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WeatherMonger
post Jul 26 2017, 09:15 PM
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QUOTE(melissa from illinois @ Jul 26 2017, 09:11 PM) *
Here ya go Monger, itll miss me but you might get in on it.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Menard County in central Illinois...
Northwestern Sangamon County in central Illinois...

* Until 945 PM CDT

* At 902 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Petersburg,
or 16 miles southwest of Mason City, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Sherman, Rochester, Riverton, Petersburg, Athens,
Williamsville, Ashland, Pleasant Plains, Greenview, Tallula,
Jerome, Southern View, Leland Grove, Grandview, Spaulding, Clear
Lake, Cantrall, Atterberry and Salisbury.


Lol, going outside just in case. Nit ginna be anything here, I'm closer to Grandview than Sherman and Sherman will steal the shiw
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melissa from ill...
post Jul 26 2017, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 26 2017, 09:15 PM) *
Lol, going outside just in case. Nit ginna be anything here, I'm closer to Grandview than Sherman and Sherman will steal the shiw


at least its something. im gettin lots of lightning right now. id rather have lots of rain.


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"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 26 2017, 09:22 PM
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QUOTE(melissa from illinois @ Jul 26 2017, 09:20 PM) *
at least its something. im gettin lots of lightning right now. id rather have lots of rain.

I bet you get a warning, Lincoln is notorious for "radar indicated" hyperbole. A lot of the significant strikes and booms seem to be a bit west of me.

Second wave strengthening I bet.
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melissa from ill...
post Jul 26 2017, 09:36 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 26 2017, 09:22 PM) *
I bet you get a warning, Lincoln is notorious for "radar indicated" hyperbole. A lot of the significant strikes and booms seem to be a bit west of me.

Second wave strengthening I bet.


this ones just a tad too north for me. I don't think its even raining here right now.


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"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 26 2017, 09:38 PM
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I think I felt a draft
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melissa from ill...
post Jul 26 2017, 09:43 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 26 2017, 09:38 PM) *
I think I felt a draft


lol. enjoy it while it lasts!


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"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 26 2017, 09:44 PM
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Worst warning I've ever been under. Didn't even have an update, may have expired early laugh.gif
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 26 2017, 09:45 PM
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Betting ILX pulled the breaker on the radar. They always give Lincoln a warning, now radar hasn't updated in 15 minutes

This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Jul 26 2017, 09:46 PM
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melissa from ill...
post Jul 26 2017, 09:49 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 26 2017, 09:44 PM) *
Worst warning I've ever been under. Didn't even have an update, may have expired early laugh.gif


I just read the warning is being allowed to expire and the storm dropped below severe limits. Go figure.


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"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 26 2017, 09:55 PM
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Pouring rain and ample lightning, been watching DVR on directv nd it was glitching during strikes. Found it a bit odd.


Might see FFW, but not sure. Heavy returns still on LSX radar and pouring buckets now
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 26 2017, 10:01 PM
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Power just went out
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 26 2017, 10:21 PM
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Rain gauge has 2 1/2" in it
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 27 2017, 01:47 AM
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80%+ chance of storms all day tomorrow. HRRR looks like an isolated chance for storms throughout the day. Some areas don't even get rain in SW OH. However, it's picking up on potential for storm training


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 27 2017, 01:54 AM
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2.6" PWAT in MO blink.gif



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Snow____
post Jul 27 2017, 06:17 AM
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Just caught the northern edge of a rogue storm.


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Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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