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> July 27-29, 2017 Severe Weather / Heavy Rains MidAtl/NE, Forecasts, Discussions
phillyfan
post Jul 26 2017, 11:47 AM
Post #21




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7 day rainfall maps:

today:
Attached Image


yesterday:
Attached Image


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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CentralJerseySno...
post Jul 26 2017, 12:01 PM
Post #22




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Sorry for the probably dumb question, but is this looking better or worse for Newark airport area Friday night?
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Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 12:15 PM
Post #23




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UKIE also has a Mason Dixon centric look to the QPF

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Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 12:24 PM
Post #24




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Ah MDBR - there ya go buddy, plenty of gully washers look to be in your near future.
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Miller A
post Jul 26 2017, 12:45 PM
Post #25




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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jul 26 2017, 05:19 AM) *
So how much snow for KFWN? Oh sorry I went into default mode because its chilly up here this morning.
Lets see how this plays out, it could be interesting but since we don't have a ton of warm juicy air to play with, this might be more rain then severe.


Did TWC name this one yet?


--------------------
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 26 2017, 01:04 PM
Post #26




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 26 2017, 01:24 PM) *
Ah MDBR - there ya go buddy, plenty of gully washers look to be in your near future.


Snowmaps?!

Too much cold. It will be pushed South.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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phillyfan
post Jul 26 2017, 01:29 PM
Post #27




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Bobby Martrich EPAWA:

QUOTE
New Euro says grab two of every animal Friday and Saturday. Not buying the Saturday part yet though. This would be a dream winter scenario



--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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phillyfan
post Jul 26 2017, 01:33 PM
Post #28




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From Garrett Bastardi:



Well that would be very bad for Middletown.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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phils1
post Jul 26 2017, 01:46 PM
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Euro goes all out with torrential rainfall for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...vigorous upper-level support sets off nor'easter-type development along Mid-Atlantic coastline:
https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2017/7/...week-rain-event
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 
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KENNYP2339
post Jul 26 2017, 02:05 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 26 2017, 02:04 PM) *
Snowmaps?!

Too much cold. It will be pushed South.

Mason Dixon line special, to bad was hoping for the dark knight
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KENNYP2339
post Jul 26 2017, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(phils1 @ Jul 26 2017, 02:46 PM) *
Euro goes all out with torrential rainfall for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...vigorous upper-level support sets off nor'easter-type development along Mid-Atlantic coastline:
https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2017/7/...week-rain-event

King Euro .... ok I'll stop, I'm just trying to refresh my winter vocab
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Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 02:11 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jul 26 2017, 03:07 PM) *
King Euro .... ok I'll stop, I'm just trying to refresh my winter vocab

laugh.gif laugh.gif
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Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 02:11 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 26 2017, 02:04 PM) *
Snowmaps?!

Too much cold. It will be pushed South.

Polar Vortex?
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phillyfan
post Jul 26 2017, 02:17 PM
Post #34




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HPC came back north a little:
Attached Image


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 02:22 PM
Post #35




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12z UKIE almost mirrors Euro as far as SLP placement. The central PA (and I-95 corridor) sweet spot, Delmarva region \\

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Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 02:24 PM
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Seems as if the "new" GFS has the same progressive bias as did the previous

Not nearly as wound up (weaker by at least 6mb to the Euro Camp), quicker moving.

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 26 2017, 02:27 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 26 2017, 11:51 AM) *
The repeated assault, by the northern stream, on the Atl Ridge, is starting to show up as gradual weakening or eastern displacement of the ridge (in some instances, squashing it to the southeast).

Hence the unsummer like next 10 days (or so) as you say.

It has (so far this summer) been able to withstand the assaults from the continental troughs that move through, but it does seem to be very resilient and has, to this point, been keeping the tropics at bay. I expect that will slowly change due to intermittent, and then more sustained, displacement and slight weakening of the SER influence.

Back to the matter at hand, I would not be shocked if the QPF output on the models starts to show some increase over the next 24 hours. It may, (as it often does in cold months) back off the higher end - towards the starting point. Of course, what we don't want is too much at once, on the heels of last week's disaster in So. Dauphin County, PA etc.


Yea I saw a bunch of pictures from this thankfully I did not have to work that day or I would not really have gotten a way to get home lol, even though I wanted to experience rainfall like that with virtually calm conditions.

Ill take a look at this later tonight on my home comp but from just taking a glance it looks like we are in for decent rain event in the normal, if you will, stall location for a southern system. This may scrape new england coast but it will have to be determined how storng that high pressure system gets to the north which will determine the extent of impact on north. Last thing many places need from about northern maryland southern PA on east to NJ coastal area is well more rain so expect flooding with a system like this hopefully it can manage to hold rainfall rates to 1/4-1/2" per hour and not get to 1"/hour but we will see do not normally get systems like this in the summer so there is a possibility convection may take part in this as well and will have to see if there are any tropical connections which would otherwise enhance rainfall and rates.

It looks like the setup is a system skirts off NE into northern New enlgand thursday leaving behind a trailing cold front that will most likely stall, which will have to watch for a flooding threat with this as well. Showers and scattered storms come in late tomorrow and look to stick around through early friday as our system starts to get going. Some severe threat is possible thursday with the possibility of a prefrontal trough setting up that could spark some storms, lee trough setup. To be honest im curious to see how a system like this evolves in the summer time if it is ever so different or virtually the same as a noreaster in fall and winter.

Be back later to comment better on the threat.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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NorEaster07
post Jul 26 2017, 02:27 PM
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Amped up.

Enjoy it cause in a few months it's Springtime.

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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 26 2017, 02:34 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 26 2017, 03:11 PM) *
Polar Vortex?


some PV influence. But with current MJO I see a southern jog of current depiction. Great for i76 south. Good news for New Englanders though GFS has a Miller B coming at hour 479.


trying to kick the cobwebs out.

oh, and, snowmaps are worthless.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jul 26 2017, 02:37 PM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 02:41 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 26 2017, 03:34 PM) *
some PV influence. But with current MJO I see a southern jog of current depiction. Great for i76 south. Good news for New Englanders though GFS has a Miller B coming at hour 479.
trying to kick the cobwebs out.

oh, and, snowmaps are worthless.

An RTC special, with blocking and all.


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NAO is tanking (Anthony)
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