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> July 27-29, 2017 Severe Weather / Heavy Rains MidAtl/NE, Forecasts, Discussions
Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 02:47 PM
Post #41




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Even CFB talk in the discos ohmy.gif ohmy.gif tongue.gif

AFDCTP

QUOTE
Main chance of heavier rain will be later on Friday, but a
complex situation, as upper lvl low lags the sfc low, and models
may suffer from convective feedback.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
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NorEaster07
post Jul 26 2017, 03:02 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 26 2017, 03:34 PM) *
some PV influence. But with current MJO I see a southern jog of current depiction. Great for i76 south. Good news for New Englanders though GFS has a Miller B coming at hour 479.
trying to kick the cobwebs out.

oh, and, snowmaps are worthless.


Sun too strong. Same angle as it is in July.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 26 2017, 03:02 PM
Post #43




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 26 2017, 03:47 PM) *


Yea it surely will be a tough one to make a forecast for given the time of year and the fact these two may not fully link or if they do when that occurs. Ill wait for 00z to really make any guesstimates on what may happen.

I hope we can somehow manage near the warm sector and get some convective activity in here been soooooooo boring otherwise, except from the flooding that has occurred.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 26 2017, 04:02 PM) *
Sun too strong. Same angle as it is in July.

laugh.gif laugh.gif

Love it!
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Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 03:14 PM
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Weather World jumps on board

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Undertakerson
post Jul 26 2017, 03:26 PM
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Where's Pocono when the DWD-ICON (German model) has this


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grandpaboy
post Jul 26 2017, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 26 2017, 03:22 PM) *
12z UKIE almost mirrors Euro as far as SLP placement. The central PA (and I-95 corridor) sweet spot, Delmarva region \\

[attachment=327099:GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif]

[attachment=327100:pan_P2_G...072_0000.gif]



Good to see some of us crawling out of our summer time slumber to chime in with this baby... tongue.gif

Truly unique setup and evolution of a Nor'easter that has potential to put some fall/winter storms to shame in July!!... rolleyes.gif


Euro is beastly but probably a bit over amped at this time, though the GFS is too progressive and weak... usual model bias at this range..

Euro has support from the Ukie which is nice to see...

NAM is well...doing what NAM does...

Return is in the morning and see where we are...




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just a guy who despises weather but loves the drama....


whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
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grandpaboy
post Jul 26 2017, 05:05 PM
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Just got a look at the Euro EPS... rolleyes.gif

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--------------------
just a guy who despises weather but loves the drama....


whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
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psu1313
post Jul 26 2017, 05:36 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 26 2017, 04:26 PM) *
Where's Pocono when the DWD-ICON (German model) has this


Attached Image


It even has a "snow" hole over central Virginia!
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risingriver
post Jul 26 2017, 06:31 PM
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QUOTE(psu1313 @ Jul 26 2017, 06:36 PM) *
It even has a "snow" hole over central Virginia!

Just like January. I wonder if this energy splits and goes through PA and North Carolina like last week's system did. Most of Virginia missed out on big storms our last system. The DC area precip track has definitely been north of the capital through Central Maryland and Baltimore.

Kent Island by the Chesapeake Bay Bridge had a pretty significant ef-2 tornado Saturday that did some pretty decent damage but it didn't get mentioned much in here. If the low pressure gets strong enough we could have enough twist in the atmosphere where that could be an issue again Friday night.

In honor of winter tradition, who's staying up tonight for the 0z run of the euro? We all know Undertakerson is going to be on the rooster shift tomorrow morning.

Sun angle is early May. I wonder what type of precip the top of Mount Washington gets?

This post has been edited by risingriver: Jul 26 2017, 06:32 PM
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stxprowl
post Jul 26 2017, 06:40 PM
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http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
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KENNYP2339
post Jul 26 2017, 07:51 PM
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Very sharp cut off north, I wonder is the models are having a hard time with deciphering cooler marine are since there will be a northeast wind or on shore flow developing. usually in these types of situations the "rain belt" will get stack or exacerbated along rts 78 and 22 further north than whats forecasted
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rtcemc
post Jul 26 2017, 08:57 PM
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Great stuff in here guys. I read back and was laughing my butt off. So how much do you think I will get in New Tripoli? Am I still in the sweet spot? I shall ask this after every model run at least 5 times.... PowerStroke just blew a gasket...
Weirdest summer I can remember. Greener than I have ever seen it, pretty much statewide, and I welcome lovely drought brown at this time of year. Luv it when your feet get hurt walking on the grass. Not this year.
Remember, big storms come north as we near rolleyes.gif rolleyes.gif
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phillyfan
post Jul 26 2017, 10:53 PM
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0z GFS:




Still lingers around after this...


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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phillyfan
post Jul 26 2017, 10:55 PM
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0z GFS Rainfall totals:


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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kpk33x
post Jul 26 2017, 11:46 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Jul 26 2017, 07:31 PM) *
Just like January. I wonder if this energy splits and goes through PA and North Carolina like last week's system did. Most of Virginia missed out on big storms our last system. The DC area precip track has definitely been north of the capital through Central Maryland and Baltimore.

Kent Island by the Chesapeake Bay Bridge had a pretty significant ef-2 tornado Saturday that did some pretty decent damage but it didn't get mentioned much in here. If the low pressure gets strong enough we could have enough twist in the atmosphere where that could be an issue again Friday night.

In honor of winter tradition, who's staying up tonight for the 0z run of the euro? We all know Undertakerson is going to be on the rooster shift tomorrow morning.

Sun angle is early May. I wonder what type of precip the top of Mount Washington gets?


We've had snow flurries on May 16. Just sayin'...and not even at the top of Mt. Washington either! laugh.gif

We are probably east and north of the main action, and will likely end up warmer than the wet folks in PA...we may even miss the entire event this far away from the coast.


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F:
...Frost:
...First sub-freezing low:
...Snow reported:

Foliage: Some color starting to show (Sept. 14)
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Undertakerson
post Jul 27 2017, 03:15 AM
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00z UKIE rainfall total (150mm is roughly 6")

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Undertakerson
post Jul 27 2017, 03:19 AM
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WPC disco

QUOTE
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Valid 12Z Thu Jul 27 2017 - 12Z Sat Jul 29 2017

...Heavy rain and strong storms likely for parts of the Four-Corners
region and also from the Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic region...

There will be two main areas of disturbed weather through the end of the
week. The first area will be a developing surface low along a frontal
boundary situated across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region.
Increasing moisture convergence along and south of this front will result
in numerous showers and thunderstorms developing from the middle
Mississippi River valley to the East Coast. The potential for flash
flooding increases from Missouri to New Jersey over the next couple of
days as multiple rounds of storms repeatedly affect the same areas
. Some
locations could get 2 to 4 inches of rainfall by Saturday morning,
especially across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region
. The
increased cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures about 5 to
10 degrees cooler than they otherwise would be. The best prospects for
severe storms will be from the southern Appalachians to the Southeast
Coast based on the latest Storm Prediction Center outlooks.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 27 2017, 03:52 AM
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NAM (12k - 06z) goes bonkers over the Laurel Highlands of PA with up to a foot of QPF

3k version has similar, but has the focus over S. York/Lancaster County over towards Philly in PA)

3k


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12k

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Undertakerson
post Jul 27 2017, 04:48 AM
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GFS at 6z run, places much more QPF into N PA (than the 00z run)

Honestly still think the models are "guessing" at this point.
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