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> August 15-20 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Medium Range: 4-8 Day Forecasts and Observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 11 2017, 12:08 AM
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A potentially active period for severe weather looks to be setting up next week for the Midwest and Plains. A south-central US ridge attempts to set up, but embedded short waves originating from the Pacific rolls across the top of the ridge. This results in the potential for MCSs; possibly even discrete/semi-discrete supercells before transitioning into an MCS... similar to what we saw today.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 18 2017, 08:13 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 11 2017, 12:11 AM
Post #2




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WPC QPF shows a bit of a ring of fire pattern. Unusual to happen at this latitude.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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MichelleOH
post Aug 11 2017, 03:10 PM
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From: Xenia/Miamisburg Ohio
Member No.: 18,456





Any thought on when and where? mad.gif Figures the week I need it to be nice. LOL

This post has been edited by MichelleOH: Aug 11 2017, 03:12 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 11 2017, 08:27 PM
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QUOTE(MichelleOH @ Aug 11 2017, 04:10 PM) *
Any thought on when and where? mad.gif Figures the week I need it to be nice. LOL

Most likely will stay south and west of us. It's early but models showing potential for warmer weather toward the end of the month. This may mean this ring of fire pattern may work northward.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 11 2017, 08:28 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowlover2
post Aug 11 2017, 09:07 PM
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Warning NE of me with confirmed 60mph winds.

QUOTE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
957 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southern Champaign County in west central Ohio...
Northeastern Clark County in west central Ohio...
Northeastern Madison County in central Ohio...
Southwestern Union County in central Ohio...

* Until 1030 PM EDT.

* At 956 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near St. Paris to near Mechanicsburg, moving east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Law enforcement.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Urbana, Plain City, Mechanicsburg, Tremont City, Woodstock,
Catawba, Mutual, Cable, Thackery, Westville, Rosedale, State Route
4 at State Route 161, Resaca, Powhattan, Catawba Station, Chuckery,
Terre Haute, New Moorefield and Plumwood.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Aug 11 2017, 10:03 PM
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About to get trained by a storm just west of me and appears to be redeveloping on the west side as it moves east.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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MichelleOH
post Aug 11 2017, 10:14 PM
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It's headed straight for me. Can't get RS to update for the last 15 min or so.
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Juniorrr
post Aug 11 2017, 10:17 PM
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Getting some training to the west, thunder - woah I haven't heard that in years laugh.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 11 2017, 10:23 PM
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That jet streak tho



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 11 2017, 10:31 PM
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From: Athens, Ohio
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Ring of fire already ongoing. 2 active MCSs moving around the 594dm ridge high.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Juniorrr
post Aug 11 2017, 11:31 PM
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From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Getting some good rains, heavy droplets.
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MichelleOH
post Aug 12 2017, 07:32 AM
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Gauge showing .76" of rain. Sure sounded like more than that! wink.gif
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snowlover2
post Aug 12 2017, 04:41 PM
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Good thing this is over rural areas.

QUOTE
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
328 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

NEC013-123-122200-
/O.CON.KCYS.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170812T2200Z/
Box Butte NE-Morrill NE-
328 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BOX BUTTE AND NORTHEASTERN MORRILL COUNTIES...

At 326 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles southwest of Alliance Airport, or 9 miles south
of Alliance, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and three inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Highway 385 south of Alliance near the Morrill county line.
Otherwise, this storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Box
Butte and Morrill counties.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 12 2017, 08:28 PM
Post #14




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From: Athens, Ohio
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Uptick in severe weather becoming much more apparent. Finally might get a western trough come in?!




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 12 2017, 08:39 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Aug 12 2017, 05:41 PM) *
Good thing this is over rural areas.

77.5 dBZ supercell in Nebraska... no big deal. Got a hail spike, too, and the warning is only for 60 MPH winds and quarter size hail laugh.gif

New warning for 70 MPH wind and quarter size hail

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 12 2017, 08:43 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 12 2017, 08:46 PM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





80.5 dBZ now. Very rare.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 13 2017, 08:36 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Well ain't this suspicious
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 13 2017, 08:50 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 20,617
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From: Athens, Ohio
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Interesting. It's trying to form an inflow notch by drying out the extremely moist rain-filled inflow. Red marker shows the inflow notch that's trying to form.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 13 2017, 09:29 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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The supercell realized it sucks at life and a rear inflow jet made it bow out

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 13 2017, 09:30 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 15 2017, 07:23 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Confirmed tornado in western Nebraska
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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