Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

3 Pages V  < 1 2 3 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> August 15-20 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Medium Range: 4-8 Day Forecasts and Observations
snowlover2
post Aug 15 2017, 07:29 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 16,913
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 15 2017, 08:23 PM) *
Confirmed tornado in western Nebraska

Second time for this cell. Had a confirmed tornado as it went over Harrisburg.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Aug 16 2017, 05:53 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 16,913
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Didn't expect this today.

QUOTE
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
543 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

MNC103-162300-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-170816T2300Z/
Nicollet MN-
543 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL NICOLLET COUNTY...

At 542 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over New Sweden, or 15 miles northeast of New Ulm, moving
north at 20 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW
!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
north central Nicollet County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. take
immediate tornado precautions. this is an emergency situation.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 16 2017, 06:48 PM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Strange to have a warm frontal tornado outbreak in the middle of August.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Aug 16 2017, 06:49 PM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 16,913
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





And another PDS tornado warning.

QUOTE
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

MNC085-143-170015-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170817T0015Z/
Sibley MN-McLeod MN-
639 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD COUNTIES...

At 638 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Winthrop, or 20 miles south of Hutchinson, moving
northwest at 15 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 638 pm, a large
tornado was reported northwest of Gaylord on county road
10 and highway 15.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Brownton around 710 PM CDT.
Stewart around 715 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Fernando and Sumter.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 16 2017, 06:59 PM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





I've noticed usually when you have these kinds of events in the Plains, you can expect at least a couple tornado reports along the warm front the next day. SPC has already put out a slight risk for where the warm front is expected to be tomorrow.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 16 2017, 07:05 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





You don't see this very often... MCD said 5% chance of a tornado watch.

QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Areas affected...South-central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 162308Z - 170045Z

CORRECTED FOR COUNTY NAME TYPO

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado threat should persist early this
evening across south-central Minnesota (north of a line from St.
James to Waseca, and generally south of a line from Redwood Falls to
Hutchinson). Although another tornado or two remains possible,
spatiotemporal limitations preclude the issuance of a watch.

DISCUSSION...Late afternoon/early evening surface analysis indicated
an area of low pressure located in southwest MN (south of Redwood
Falls), with a front extending northeast through Wright and Isanti
Counties to northwest WI. A high theta-e environment is present
south of this boundary, while objective analyses indicated
sufficient surface vorticity/strong effective SRH (200-300 m2/s2) to
support low-level rotation, as has been detected so far in Nicollet
into Sibley Counties. Marginal instability should limit the
coverage of sustained storms, though storms that continue to track
northward to the east/northeast of the surface low and the front
will have an enhanced probability to produce a tornado.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 16 2017, 07:54 PM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Just when you thought the tornadoes were done. Confirmed tornado heading for radar site.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 16 2017, 08:02 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





New one to its west, possibly another warning coming to the west of it too
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 16 2017, 08:58 PM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Interesting hodograph in Minneapolis. 90 degree veering with a northerly storm motion



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 16 2017, 10:30 PM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Good signal for individual storms tomorrow on HRRR.





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Aug 17 2017, 10:23 AM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 16,913
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Slight risk has been expanded south along the I-75 corridor in Ohio.
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
MI/OH/IN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PART OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GREAT LAKES TO
OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SD TO
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadic storms and scattered damaging winds are possible
across parts of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio from about 2 to 9 p.m.
EDT. A small severe storm cluster may also develop over the Raton
Mesa and adjacent portions of the southern High Plains in the early
evening.

...MI/IN/OH...
Primary changes this outlook are to expand tornado and wind
probabilities to account for a broader region of potentially
rotating storms.

998 mb cyclone near the Twin Cities should track towards eastern
Lake Superior through early Friday. Warm front extending southeast
of this wave across central WI to southern Lower MI will gradually
advance north today. Rich boundary-layer moisture characterized by
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios around 16 g/kg is pervasive within
the warm sector. In spite of broken clouds and poor mid-level lapse
rates, this moist air mass coupled with modest surface heating
should result in MLCAPE from 500-1250 J/kg by early afternoon. As
mid-level height falls overspread this buoyancy plume, scattered
storms will develop.

Wind profiles favor mostly discrete cells and small clusters. Backed
low-level flow is anticipated near the front where instability
should be weakest, with lesser but still adequate low to deep-layer
shear for updraft rotation in the warm sector. The poor lapse rates
aloft should temper updraft acceleration and supercell structures
may remain transient. Still, the setup might support potential for a
couple tornadic storms, with widely scattered damaging winds and
marginally severe hail. Multicells and an associated locally
damaging wind threat should be increasingly predominant with
southern extent in the Lower OH Valley.

...Central SD to southern High Plains...
Modified moisture return flow will ensue as a lee trough/dryline
sharpens by late afternoon. Robust diabatic heating will yield steep
tropospheric lapse rates. Isolated to widely scattered high-based
storms should form late afternoon/early evening with localized
severe hail/wind possible. A greater predictability corridor for
isolated severe will be near the Raton Mesa. Here, a belt of
moderate mid-level westerlies may foster a supercell and/or small
cluster progressing east for a few hours this evening before waning
as MLCIN increases.

..Grams/Dial.. 08/17/2017


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Aug 17 2017, 11:13 AM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 16,913
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Possible watch coming.
Attached Image

QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Areas affected...Eastern IN...Western OH...Far Southeast Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171604Z - 171800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Line of storms across eastern IN will gradually strengthen
as it continues eastward in OH. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two are possible within the strongest storms. Trends will
be monitored for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown a gradual
increase in storm intensity within the line of thunderstorm
stretching across eastern IN. Moisture advection ahead of the line
is supporting downstream airmass destabilization and mesoanalysis
now estimates MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg for much of the region. General
expectation is for the ongoing line to gradually intensify as it
interacts with the very moist and unstable airmass downstream.
Strengthening mid-level flow will also contribute to stronger shear
and a more supportive environment for better updraft organization.

Predominately linear mode and the very moist airmass will support a
primary severe threat of damaging wind gusts associated with wet
microbursts. Additionally, the strengthening mid-level flow will
contribute to a modest increase in storm-relative helicity. This
increased helicity and low LCLs support the potential for a few
tornadoes.

..Mosier/Weiss.. 08/17/2017


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Aug 17 2017, 11:40 AM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,683
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Knew we were up for some stormy chances today when I walked outside into a swamp.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snow____
post Aug 17 2017, 01:56 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,763
Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





About to actually getting some interesting weather. It's been dry and boring here the last couple weeks.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Aug 17 2017, 01:58 PM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,683
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Lots of lightning to my south/southeast. Got some rain here but missed the business end to my south.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 17 2017, 03:43 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





2 supercells near Cleveland. The Akron one may go tornado warned any moment

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 17 2017, 03:44 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 17 2017, 03:53 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 17 2017, 04:43 PM) *
2 supercells near Cleveland. The Akron one may go tornado warned any moment

Or it's just gonna break into pieces. Same thing.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 17 2017, 03:54 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image

 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 17 2017, 04:07 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(Snow____ @ Aug 17 2017, 02:56 PM) *
About to actually getting some interesting weather. It's been dry and boring here the last couple weeks.



QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Aug 17 2017, 02:58 PM) *
Lots of lightning to my south/southeast. Got some rain here but missed the business end to my south.

Got nailed in Mason. Lots and lots of lightning, some were very close. I think one strike hit something because the traffic lights were blinking in the vicinity of Kings Island.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 17 2017, 04:07 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 17 2017, 04:49 PM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,624
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Maybe?
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
joseph507123
post Aug 17 2017, 05:52 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 501
Joined: 20-January 12
From: South Central Minnesota
Member No.: 26,362





7 tornadoes touched down yesterday in Minnesota.


--------------------
2017

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 8

Tornado Watches: 4

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: 1''

Warmest Temperature: 99F

90F+ days: 21

Highest Heat Index: 116F
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

3 Pages V  < 1 2 3 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 26th September 2017 - 11:28 AM