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> August 11-12, 2017 Storms MidAtl/NE, Forecasts, Discussions
Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 09:45 AM
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Around 4 p.m. via 3KNAM (12z)

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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 09:49 AM
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Thinking this afternoon's event will be on the order of those intense winter squalls we get - where whiteout hits for about 20-30 minutes and then quickly clear. Minus the snow, of course. rolleyes.gif
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rtcemc
post Aug 12 2017, 10:11 AM
Post #43




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 12 2017, 10:44 AM) *
[attachment=327340:USNWS.JPG]

Thx, we need it tongue.gif
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 12:05 PM
Post #44




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Cranky

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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 12:09 PM
Post #45




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ohmy.gif ohmy.gif

Yesterday's event, estimate...

UTS Hill is pretty much dead center of the red circle.

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CTP mentioned that our FFG is now down around 1.25" - so these storms this afternoon, have potential to cause those typically prone areas (low lying, poor drainage) to be exposed to risk.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 12 2017, 12:57 PM
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 12:57 PM
Post #46




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QUOTE
Message:
NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-PA125862183360.SevereThunderstormWarning.125862186
30PA.CTPSVRCTP.d5c21ad2b04f9ccb6b73a9701914f65f from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent:
13:52 EDT on 08-12-2017
Effective:
13:52 EDT on 08-12-2017
Expires:
15:00 EDT on 08-12-2017
Event:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Huntingdon County in central Pennsylvania...
Southeastern Centre County in central Pennsylvania...
Northeastern Mifflin County in central Pennsylvania...
Northeastern Juniata County in central Pennsylvania...
Western Snyder County in central Pennsylvania...

* Until 300 PM EDT

* At 152 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Boalsburg,
moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage
to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Mcalisterville, Yeagertown, Alfarata, Reedsville,
Snyder-Middleswart State Park, McClure, Reeds Gap State Park,
Potters Mills, Belltown and Beaver Springs.
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
Instructions:
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Target Area:
Centre
Huntingdon
Juniata
Mifflin
Snyder
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JDClapper
post Aug 12 2017, 01:03 PM
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Firing up .. and there's that warning UTS posted (in yellow)

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ccx...0R&loop=yes

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 01:03 PM
Post #48




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QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Areas affected...Central PA...Central NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 121741Z - 121945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to continue increasing
over the next few hours. Some hail and damaging wind gusts are
possible with the stronger, more organized cells and trends will be
monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has increased across central PA
and central NY over the past hour or so within a broad region of
surface confluence ahead of an approaching cold front. Low-level
airmass ahead of the cold front is characterized by dewpoints in the
upper 60s/low 70s, which is supporting modest instability (i.e.
MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg per the latest mesoanalysis), despite
filtered sunshine and warm mid-level temperatures. General
expectation is for MLCAPE to remain around 1000 J/kg with increasing
storm coverage as both the cold front and its parent shortwave
trough continue eastward into the region.

Despite modest the instability, occasionally strong/organized
updrafts are possible given the strengthening mid-level flow and
related moderate shear. Recent CCX VAD sampled 0-6 km bulk shear
over 45 kt and a long hodograph, favorable for storm splits
. Some
hail will be possible with the any stronger/discrete cells with
gusty winds also possible as multicell storms organize in small
bowing structures
. Convective trends will be monitored for possible
watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/12/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...P
Z...

LAT...LON 42747788 43427626 43067457 41027579 39767695 39687939
42747788


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 12 2017, 01:06 PM
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 01:07 PM
Post #49




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Aug 12 2017, 02:03 PM) *
Firing up .. and there's that warning UTS posted (in yellow)

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ccx...0R&loop=yes

Attached Image

State College under hail cored cell according to Intellicast radar site.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx
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bingobobbo
post Aug 12 2017, 01:56 PM
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I hope we can get some showers to cool the air down--today has been warmer than predicted. Tomorrow is supposed to be a bit cooler, but they have raised the predicted maxes for the following four days.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 02:01 PM
Post #51




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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 02:05 PM
Post #52




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QUOTE
SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New Jersey
Central and Eastern New York
Central and Eastern Pennsylvania

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase and intensify this
afternoon, perhaps especially across south-central/southeast
Pennsylvania as well as east-central New York
. Severe hail and wind
will be possible with the strongest storms as they spread eastward
through the afternoon and early evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of
Utica NY to 35 miles south of Harrisburg PA.
For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 12 2017, 02:05 PM
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 02:08 PM
Post #53




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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 02:09 PM
Post #54




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Warning just issued by NWS on those cells

(911 EA Sys)

Now NWS

QUOTE
Event:
Tornado Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Juniata County in central Pennsylvania...
Northeastern Perry County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 400 PM EDT

* At 303 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Mcalisterville, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Juniata and northeastern Perry Counties, including the
following locations: Liverpool and East Salem.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 12 2017, 02:11 PM
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 02:21 PM
Post #55




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Possible line merger - trajectory to my north about 30mi. Town of Millersburg and general area around Liverpool, Lykens (Rt 209 valley) should be taking precautions NOW.
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 02:25 PM
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Momma cat has just come on to the porch - she only does that at night to sleep or to take shelter from an impending strong storm.

Then I watched three deer running full bore up the road to UTS Hill.

It doesn't look that ominous ATTM - wonder if they know something?
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 02:26 PM
Post #57




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QUOTE
Event:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Northumberland County in central Pennsylvania...
Northern Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania...
Northeastern Juniata County in central Pennsylvania...
South central Snyder County in central Pennsylvania...
Northeastern Perry County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 445 PM EDT

* At 323 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Richfield,
moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage
to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Lykens, Richfield, Williamstown, Meiserville, Elizabethville,
Millersburg, Penn National Race Course, New Buffalo, Dehart Dam and
Gratz.
This includes Interstate 81 from mile markers 77 to 81.
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 02:37 PM
Post #58




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Local news just broke in to warn of the storm - interrupted PGA event to do so.
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phillyfan
post Aug 12 2017, 02:40 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 12 2017, 03:37 PM) *
Local news just broke in to warn of the storm - interrupted PGA event to do so.

I was soon headed out to western corner of Berks, (Bethel) soon.... unsure.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 02:43 PM
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QUOTE
Event:
Tornado Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northern Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania...
Northwestern Lebanon County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 430 PM EDT

* At 334 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Millersburg, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. This storm has a history of
causing wind damage.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Millersburg around 340 PM EDT.
Elizabethville around 400 PM EDT.
Lykens and Dehart Dam around 410 PM EDT.
Williamstown and Fort Indiantown Gap around 420 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Enders, Ono, Wiconisco, Berrysburg, Gratz and Jonestown.
This includes the following Interstates...
Interstate 78 from mile markers 0 to 6.
Interstate 81 from mile markers 84 to 96.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN
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