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> August 24- September 15, 2017 MidAtl/NE Cool snap, Observations
Undertakerson
post Aug 16 2017, 05:49 AM
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While most of the tropics attention is currently in the Atlantic basin (with good cause for many, I admit), a look at the Trop Pac region shows the recurve of Typhoon Banyan. As we know from our TR observations, such recurve leads to an E US trough in the day 7-10 time pd


Attached Image


As acknowledged in the Extended Disco from WPC

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 19 2017 - 12Z WED AUG 23 2017

...PATTERN OVERVIEW/GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN
U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A TROUGH CROSSING THE EAST WILL LIFT
AWAY AFTER THE WEEKEND WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE STEADILY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA.
THIS TROUGH SHOULD AMPLIFY SOME AS IT REACHES EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA, LIKELY COVERING THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOWER 48
BY DAY 7 WED. BEYOND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL
CANADA AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. OVER MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDES ENERGY
ROUNDING THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO A TROUGH/UPPER
LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A RETROGRADING ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL RAISE HEIGHTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.

BASED ON MODELS/ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE 12Z/18Z CYCLES THE MOST
CONTENTIOUS PART OF THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE PORTION OF THE
FEATURE REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION SHOULD INCLUDE A
CONTRIBUTION FROM RECURVING TYPHOON BANYAN
PLUS INPUT FROM
UPSTREAM NORTHERN PACIFIC FLOW AND HIGHER LATITUDE ALASKA FLOW.
AMONG THE AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS THE FASTER 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BECOME
ONE OF THE LESS LIKELY BY DAY 7 WED AS THE GENERAL EVOLUTION
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW SHOULD HOLD BACK TROUGH TIMING
SOMEWHAT. AT THE SAME TIME THE SLOWER GFS HAD BEEN SOMEWHAT
FASTER IN EARLIER RUNS. THE 12Z CMC (PERHAPS WITH EXCESSIVE
AMPLITUDE) OFFERS A COMPROMISE. THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY IN THE
OVERALL TROUGH EVOLUTION AND LACK OF CLEAR TRENDING IN THE ECMWF
MEAN AND SLOWER GEFS MEAN THUS FAR TO FAVOR A COMPROMISE AMONG THE
NON-12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WITH THE NEW 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/CMC IN,
THE LATTER TWO NUDGED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN WITH THE GFS
REMAINING SLOWER/MORE CLOSED.


So, it's no shock that the global models are reflecting that in their medium to long range time period. 6z GFS Operational run, for example.


Attached Image


Even for the warm time period, a 12-16 anom in surface temps will be noticeable to most.

I don't have Euro surface temp maps but the 850mb view reflects a similar outcome.


Attached Image


I would imagine the cool down would be preceded by a front passage and even though the air mass out in front is not overly hot, the contrast in temperature should help aide other dynamic aspects and lead to a decent outbreak of storms near or at severe level

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Sep 12 2017, 04:23 AM
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NorEaster07
post Aug 16 2017, 06:02 AM
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Wow, is this the first time we started a warm / cold thread with a "?" over a week away? lol.

These dips keep continuing and naturally they will get colder each time as we move into the cooler seasons. I cant remember the last 90 I had. And lack of 85+ this summer is noticeable on crops.


Only 1 above normal day in last 11 days here.. The shaded cells are the departure from normal for the max and min. Yet the month is only -0.4 below normal. Thanks to first 4 days of the month. I remember May where just 3-5 days made the whole month above normal.

Attached Image



Edit: Yesterday was classic example of how clouds keep the day well below normal (Mid 70s) but keep the night above normal (Near 70).

With these troughs all Spring and Summer clouds & precip have been the big theme.

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NorEaster07
post Aug 16 2017, 06:08 AM
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I saved this discussion from last week, thought it was interesting and glad they pointed it out..

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NorEaster07
post Aug 16 2017, 06:15 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 16 2017, 06:49 AM) *
I don't have Euro surface temp maps but the 850mb view reflects a similar outcome.


Euro00z for next Thurs-Fri shows Max 60s interior, 70s for coastal plain. Lows 40s/50s interior. 50s/60s near coast and south of NYC

The dews will truly make it feel like Fall is they are low enough.

And even tomorrow the 17th there's a taste with dews in the 40s DURING THE DAY.. In Mid August.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/897539328527613952


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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 16 2017, 07:27 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 16 2017, 07:02 AM) *
Wow, is this the first time we started a warm / cold thread with a "?" over a week away? lol.


You leave UTS alone! he's having fun. geez. some people.


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NorEaster07
post Aug 16 2017, 07:50 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 16 2017, 08:27 AM) *
You leave UTS alone! he's having fun. geez. some people.


Lol! I thought I'd be fair since I bug him about the warm threads. tongue.gif
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NorEaster07
post Aug 16 2017, 08:20 AM
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00z EuroEPS control has 546 thickness down to Southern Quebec 24th & 25th then down to northern VT 26th & 27th with an ULL over the region. #FootballTaste
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bingobobbo
post Aug 16 2017, 09:11 AM
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When I saw this thread, it made my day. If this cool spell does indeed pan out, we could be looking at our first below normal May-August period since 1979--nearly four decades! (However, 1990 came awfully close, with May, July, and August cool with June a small fraction of a degree above normal.)


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NorEaster07
post Aug 16 2017, 11:34 AM
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12z GFS today looks deeper than previous runs. Me like.
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rtcemc
post Aug 16 2017, 11:51 AM
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Yep if this was winter, many would be crying "no mas". Of course first, we must get through our regularly scheduled bouts of heavy rain mad.gif
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KENNYP2339
post Aug 16 2017, 11:51 AM
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although this was a wet summer, this is one of the 1st summers I can remember being like summer of when I was a kid (late 80's early 90's)
I use to enjoy the warm July's (not overly oppressive) and usually the last week of Aug you could feel the weather change (much of what is like the future forecast for next week)
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grace
post Aug 16 2017, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 16 2017, 11:34 AM) *
12z GFS today looks deeper than previous runs. Me like.



Pretty impressive high latitude blocking on that run. If so....-QBO & low solar influence
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NorEaster07
post Aug 16 2017, 02:44 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 16 2017, 03:07 PM) *
Pretty impressive high latitude blocking on that run. If so....-QBO & low solar influence


Check out the Euro12z today vs yesterday for same time frame. It's on it now. Big flip.

Attached Image



And here's the 850mb temp anomalies morning of 24th, 25th, 26th.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 16 2017, 03:13 PM
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LOL - I thought I'd come back and find like 75 views without any comments laugh.gif

Not to worry about the ?, it's only because I couldn't decide to end on the 26th or earlier - or later for that matter.

Mainly I started the thread because I am a big advocate of the TR - it's, arguably, the best OFM going (all due respect to the other great efforts) because it stands the test of time. Also, mini rant - I'm not all that enthused about the EAR and TR "marriage", but I don't get to run this, (or any other) show, so....
(I feel safe saying such things now because The Blue Ridge Bouncer seems to have my back tongue.gif )

I hope we do get a late month crisp spell (maybe I should rename the thread?) as I'm really behind on the paver project and sure could use some "fall like" days to help get 'er done.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 16 2017, 03:33 PM
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blink.gif

Just looked at 12z Temp anom's - do I have to consider pushing the end date beyond the 26th? unsure.gif


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NorEaster07
post Aug 16 2017, 04:39 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 16 2017, 04:33 PM) *
blink.gif

Just looked at 12z Temp anom's - do I have to consider pushing the end date beyond the 26th? unsure.gif


GFS12z min temps Saturday 26th morning. It says multiple nights in the 40s for many but I assume reality will be probably for higher elevations or New England?


Attached Image


Also.... Here I am waiting for those single digits at 850mb and Euro wants to show me 3.9C (39F) couple thousand feet above my head. LOL (Normal is 13C)

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR LAT= 41.37 LON= -73.48 ELE= 456

12Z AUG16
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
THU 06Z 24-AUG 17.0 11.7 1010 74 5 0.00 574 566
THU 12Z 24-AUG 17.8 10.6 1012 75 24 0.00 572 562
THU 18Z 24-AUG 24.2 10.5 1010 45 26 0.00 571 562
FRI 00Z 25-AUG 20.3 11.0 1011 66 56 0.00 570 560
FRI 06Z 25-AUG 16.4 10.2 1013 80 76 0.00 568 557
FRI 12Z 25-AUG 16.6 8.5 1015 78 88 0.00 566 553
FRI 18Z 25-AUG 20.9 7.8 1015 50 66 0.01 567 554
SAT 00Z 26-AUG 18.1 7.8 1017 62 19 0.00 569 555
SAT 06Z 26-AUG 13.9 5.4 1019 75 11 0.00 570 554
SAT 12Z 26-AUG 14.4 3.9 1021 72 15 0.00 570 552


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jdrenken
post Aug 16 2017, 04:52 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 16 2017, 05:49 AM) *
While most of the tropics attention is currently in the Atlantic basin (with good cause for many, I admit), a look at the Trop Pac region shows the recurve of Typhoon Banyan. As we know from our TR observations, such recurve leads to an E US trough in the day 7-10 time pd


Attached Image


As acknowledged in the Extended Disco from WPC
So, it's no shock that the global models are reflecting that in their medium to long range time period. 6z GFS Operational run, for example.


Attached Image


Even for the warm time period, a 12-16 anom in surface temps will be noticeable to most.

I don't have Euro surface temp maps but the 850mb view reflects a similar outcome.


Attached Image


I would imagine the cool down would be preceded by a front passage and even though the air mass out in front is not overly hot, the contrast in temperature should help aide other dynamic aspects and lead to a decent outbreak of storms near or at severe level


Been watching the potential since the 6th-8th.

CODE
6 Aug 2017    1013.74    1012.75    -3.82    6.86    0.41
7 Aug 2017    1012.50    1013.55    -16.21    5.90    0.40
8 Aug 2017    1011.13    1013.95    -26.95    4.68    0.30


What's this about the "marriage"? laugh.gif


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NorEaster07
post Aug 16 2017, 05:09 PM
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Looks like a Tropical Tidbits map but I dont see an option for this with the 850 anomalies + winds.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/897905146394554371

Attached Image


Edit: actually thats WB, nevermind.

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Undertakerson
post Aug 16 2017, 06:58 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 16 2017, 05:52 PM) *
Been watching the potential since the 6th-8th.

CODE
6 Aug 2017    1013.74    1012.75    -3.82    6.86    0.41
7 Aug 2017    1012.50    1013.55    -16.21    5.90    0.40
8 Aug 2017    1011.13    1013.95    -26.95    4.68    0.30


What's this about the "marriage"? laugh.gif

He lives! ohmy.gif

tongue.gif

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bingobobbo
post Aug 16 2017, 07:08 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 16 2017, 05:39 PM) *
GFS12z min temps Saturday 26th morning. It says multiple nights in the 40s for many but I assume reality will be probably for higher elevations or New England?


Attached Image


Also.... Here I am waiting for those single digits at 850mb and Euro wants to show me 3.9C (39F) couple thousand feet above my head. LOL (Normal is 13C)

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR LAT= 41.37 LON= -73.48 ELE= 456

12Z AUG16
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
THU 06Z 24-AUG 17.0 11.7 1010 74 5 0.00 574 566
THU 12Z 24-AUG 17.8 10.6 1012 75 24 0.00 572 562
THU 18Z 24-AUG 24.2 10.5 1010 45 26 0.00 571 562
FRI 00Z 25-AUG 20.3 11.0 1011 66 56 0.00 570 560
FRI 06Z 25-AUG 16.4 10.2 1013 80 76 0.00 568 557
FRI 12Z 25-AUG 16.6 8.5 1015 78 88 0.00 566 553
FRI 18Z 25-AUG 20.9 7.8 1015 50 66 0.01 567 554
SAT 00Z 26-AUG 18.1 7.8 1017 62 19 0.00 569 555
SAT 06Z 26-AUG 13.9 5.4 1019 75 11 0.00 570 554
SAT 12Z 26-AUG 14.4 3.9 1021 72 15 0.00 570 552



If that 44-degree low on the 26th pans out, we could have our first August daily record low in eleven years!


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