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> August 20-22 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level:Day 1,2,3 Slight Risk
snowlover2
post Aug 18 2017, 03:18 PM
Post #1




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Next threat of Severe weather looks to start Sunday.
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and
eastern South Dakota late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This
may include the eventual formation of a large thunderstorm cluster
by late Sunday evening, accompanied by a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Models suggest that the stronger mid-latitude westerlies may
continue a northward retreat into areas mostly north of the
Canadian/U.S. border during this period. At lower latitudes,
western Atlantic subtropical ridging is forecast to continue
building westward, and expanding northward, across the Southeast,
into the southern Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Farther west, broad weak troughing with numerous embedded
perturbations may continue to evolve west of the California coast
into the southern Great Basin and Rockies.

On the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies, a plume of
warm elevated mixed layer air may nose east of the Wyoming/Colorado
Rockies into the mid Missouri Valley. At the same time, modest
southerly low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture
transport across the Plains, into the vicinity of a cold front
advancing southward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest,
before stalling. This latter feature is expected to accompany a
short wave trough crossing the Canadian prairies, before turning
northeastward across northwestern Ontario by early Sunday. Another
significant short wave impulse may dig east southeast of the
Canadian Rockies through the Canadian prairies by late Sunday night.

...Parts of northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley...
There remains considerable spread among the various models
concerning pertinent features which could impact convective
development Sunday afternoon and evening. This includes the
positioning of the zone of potentially strong differential surface
heating and plume of elevated mixed layer air, and possible subtle
perturbations near the southern-most fringe of the mid-latitude
westerlies.

In general, though, the development of large CAPE, with continued
moistening beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence
of favorable shear for organized storm development (largely due to
pronounced veering with height), appears likely to contribute to an
environment potentially supportive of severe storm development. At
the present time, this seems most probable across parts of
central/eastern South Dakota Sunday evening, where/when forcing for
ascent may become enhanced near the nose of a modest strengthening
southerly 850 mb jet. A transition from isolated supercell
development to a consolidating/upscale growing mesoscale convective
system appears possible.

..Kerr.. 08/18/2017


This post has been edited by snowlover2: Aug 20 2017, 03:52 PM


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Aug 18 2017, 03:19 PM
Post #2




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Then a day 5 outline for IN/OH/SEMI.
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Subtropical ridging may remain prominent across much of the central
and southern tier of the U.S. through much of next week. However,
the latest medium range model output suggests that an initially
zonal belt of westerlies, near the Canadian/U.S. border early next
week, may undergo amplification by mid week. This appears likely to
include a digging large-scale upper trough across the Great Lakes
region, accompanied by a significant cold front, which could
progress through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of
the work week. Forcing for ascent along and ahead of the cold front
may be accompanied by considerable thunderstorm development. At the
present time, it seems that this may be favorably timed with peak
diurnal boundary layer destabilization across the southern/lower
Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley, to support severe storm
development Tuesday into Tuesday night. Severe weather potential
across areas farther south and east becomes more uncertain by
Wednesday, as the front may advance across southern New England and
northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas as early as mid day, and
stronger lower/mid tropospheric wind fields shift
north/northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes.

..Kerr.. 08/18/2017


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 18 2017, 07:13 PM
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Not a bad setup. Got some shear, so that's always a plus this time of year. Hoping GFS is underestimating moisture and/or directional shear.




Sounding in SW OH


Sounding in west-central IN has better speed and directional shear but that's it. Both soundings need more moisture


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 18 2017, 07:17 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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kpk33x
post Aug 19 2017, 10:49 AM
Post #4




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Member No.: 1,100





Get it cleared out of here now...our moving caravan will be advancing west on August 30-September 1st right through the yellow area on the day 5 map posted before.


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
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snowlover2
post Aug 19 2017, 02:50 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Aug 19 2017, 11:49 AM) *
Get it cleared out of here now...our moving caravan will be advancing west on August 30-September 1st right through the yellow area on the day 5 map posted before.

It's now day 4 and that's the 22nd not 30th.

This post has been edited by snowlover2: Aug 19 2017, 02:53 PM


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Aug 19 2017, 03:03 PM
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New day 4
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The mid-latitude westerlies may undergo further amplification
through the middle of the coming work week, including the evolution
of large-scale troughing across much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley
and Northeast. Within this regime, models suggest that one
significant short wave impulse could support significant
cyclogenesis across Quebec, accompanied by a trailing cold front
which may advance through much of the eastern U.S. before weakening.
There remains a signal within model output that pre-frontal forcing
for ascent may be favorably timed with peak diurnal destabilization
across parts of the lower Great Lakes region and upper Ohio Valley
on Tuesday to support considerable vigorous thunderstorm activity.
In the presence of 30-50 kt deep layer mean flow and shear,
organized severe storm development appears possible, with
potentially damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. Continuation of
this threat across southern New England and the northern Mid
Atlantic on Wednesday remains more unclear, with possible early day
progression of the front off the coast.

Thereafter, late next week into early next weekend, upper
troughiness may linger across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
and Atlantic Seaboard, as subtropical ridging becomes increasingly
prominent across the Intermountain West and Rockies. Although short
wave developments within this regime remain more uncertain, there
appears little obvious at the present time to suggest anything more
than perhaps generally low severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 08/19/2017


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Aug 19 2017, 03:06 PM
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Interesting to see the ILN HWO already suggesting spotter activation may be required 4 days out.

QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
209 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>072-077-201815-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Hardin-Mercer-
Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-
209 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind and hail will be possible with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required on Tuesday.


QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
209 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-074-078>082-088-201815-
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-Hocking-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
209 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain will be possible with
these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required on Tuesday


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Aug 19 2017, 03:10 PM
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Latest ILN AFD

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
404 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry conditions are expected for the start of the long term period on
Monday. Cu are expected to develop during the daytime hours in
addition to some cirrus beginning to move into the area. The least
amount of cloud cover is expected to be across portions of northern
Kentucky and south central Ohio with increasing clouds across
northwestern portions of the forecast area northwest of Dayton. Went
on the cool side of guidance for high temperatures on Monday.

After eclipse day on Monday attention turns to a cold front moving
through Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Although cannot rule out
severe weather anywhere across the region, expect a better severe
potential along and southeast of I-71. There is also the potential
with the orientation of the flow for some heavier rain near and
south of the Ohio River which could lead to some flash flooding
issues. Front will push out of the area and precipitation will come
to an end by the end of Tuesday night.

With CAA on Wednesday expect cooler conditions and also expect a
decent cu field to develop. Conditions will be similar on Thursday
with slightly less cu and by Friday expect little in the way of
clouds. By Saturday expect a slight increase in temperatures with
some weak WAA beginning, however expect continued dry conditions.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 19 2017, 10:56 PM
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Member No.: 29,453





Looks like a widespread damaging wind event. Hoping for the cold front to slow down a bit.

It feels like I've seen this kind of squall/broken squall 5000 times




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 19 2017, 11:00 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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snowlover2
post Aug 20 2017, 03:05 PM
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Member No.: 16,713





The day 2 slight risk area shifted west from the early morning update.

6z update (early morning)
Attached Image


1730z update (this afternoon)
Attached Image


Wonder if that means a slight west shift of the current day 3 is possible.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 20 2017, 09:40 PM
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Interesting special weather statement

QUOTE
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-210900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison,
Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville,
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford,
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
308 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 /208 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...

High pressure continues to build into the region. This will bring
dry and increasingly hot weather to the region on Monday.

High temperatures Monday are expected to warm into the upper 80s
to the lower 90s. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to be in the mid
and upper 60s which will produce afternoon heat indices in the 95
to 100 degree range. The highest heat indices are expected
between 1 and 6 PM local time.

With a large number of people expected to be outdoors on Monday due
to the upcoming solar eclipse, the potential for heat related
illness may increase. This will be especially true for those not
accustomed to the typical heat and humidity of late August in the
Ohio Valley.


If you are planning to be outside for a long period of time on
Monday, you should dress accordingly by wearing lightweight and
light colored clothing. Be sure to drink plenty of water and find
opportunities to keep cool in the shade if possible.


Curious what's gonna happen with the heat and humidity expected, then the eclipse happens and it's suddenly cold. I read on weather.com that storms can pop due to the eclipse because the path of totality is so cold that the airmass acts like a cold front. I wanna see that happen.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 20 2017, 09:42 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 20 2017, 11:27 PM
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Definitely seeing a greater severe threat in the mid-Atlantic and possibly some of the Northeast. Winds are veered there while they're unidirectional in the OV.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 21 2017, 01:06 PM
Post #13




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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Nice bow echo. Warned for baseball size hail and 70 MPH winds. In case you didn't know, supercells make up an extreme majority of >2" hail events. This is likely one of the exceptions.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 21 2017, 01:11 PM
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Attached Image
 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 21 2017, 01:45 PM
Post #14




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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Never mind. In hind sight, there was a hint of a supercell just east of Olivet, now it's become much more apparent. Lots of inflow going into that cell southwest of Beresford... can be seen in velocities (green) and correlation coefficient (bottom left screen in the shades of blues and dark blue)

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 21 2017, 01:50 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowlover2
post Aug 22 2017, 11:44 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton,OH
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Watch issued just east of me.
Attached Image
QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far southern Indiana
Central and northern Kentucky
Far western Maryland Panhandle
Southern and eastern Ohio
Western and central Pennsylvania
Northern and western West Virginia

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until
900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds appear likely as numerous
clusters and lines of storms intensify and move east this afternoon.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northeast of
Dubois PA to 60 miles south southeast of Louisville KY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 461...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.

...Grams


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 22 2017, 11:59 AM
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Supercell-esque looking cell heading for Wilmington
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 22 2017, 12:00 PM
Post #17




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Posts: 20,985
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Aug 22 2017, 12:44 PM) *
Watch issued just east of me.
Attached Image

ILN did very well with their thinking of an I71 and southeast event.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 22 2017, 06:31 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,985
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Interesting west-to-east boundary in northern Ohio and Indiana. My best guess is that's the cold front.



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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowlover2
post Aug 22 2017, 06:36 PM
Post #19




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 22 2017, 07:31 PM) *
Interesting west-to-east boundary in northern Ohio and Indiana. My best guess is that's the cold front.


They mentioned on the evening news it was when they showed the line of scattered storms along it.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 22 2017, 10:07 PM
Post #20




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From: Athens, Ohio
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If there's ever such a thing as a front loaded severe weather season, this would be it. 5 enhanced risks before May, only 1 since. Been getting a decent amount of slight risks, but none have been that memorable.

Interesting that we've had a front loaded severe season, and this happened as we transitioned from a Nina (active severe weather) to a warm neutral event in the spring and summer (relatively inactive).

Thankfully we're not far away from another Nina. Hopefully this one stays throughout the spring and summer.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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