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> August 21-22 MidAtl/NE storms, Forecasts and OBS
stxprowl
post Aug 21 2017, 03:00 PM
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5" already near Baltimore from that tiny storm.
https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/...c%20NJ&MR=1

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtg...i&wwa=flash flood warning

This post has been edited by stxprowl: Aug 21 2017, 03:03 PM
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WEATHERFAN100
post Aug 21 2017, 05:45 PM
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Heavy rain, gusty winds and some close C-T-G Lightning strikes with this cell.


--------------------
-James
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WEATHERFAN100
post Aug 21 2017, 05:48 PM
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QUOTE
The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northern Lancaster County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 930 PM EDT

* At 631 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated locally very heavy rain due
to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding
in the advisory area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain has already
fallen across the middle and upper portion of the Chickies Creek
and Little Chickies Creek Basin between Manheim and Mount Joy.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Akron, Ephrata, East Petersburg, Mount Joy, New Holland, Manheim,
Lancaster, Lititz, Willow Street and Leacock.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible from near
Landisville to East Petersburg and Lancaster over the next hour or
two. This additional heavy rain will likely become focused across
the Conestoga and Little Conestoga Basins through 730 pm, resulting
in additonal minor flooding of poor drainage areas and rapid rises
on larger streams.


--------------------
-James
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phillyfan
post Aug 21 2017, 06:20 PM
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I think the heaviest rain stayed to my west. However still got a soaking. More storms firing to the west in Lebanon, so may not be done yet.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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phillyfan
post Aug 21 2017, 07:59 PM
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Looks like Lebanon county into Northern Lancaster county is the epicenter for tonight's heavy rains. Still ongoing there.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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kayosad
post Aug 21 2017, 08:13 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Aug 21 2017, 08:59 PM) *
Looks like Lebanon county into Northern Lancaster county is the epicenter for tonight's heavy rains. Still ongoing there.


Heavy rains earlier put down just over 1/2" in Palmyra, radar still showing heavy cells around Hershey and east.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 21 2017, 10:46 PM
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Definitely see an enhanced risk tomorrow for Pennsylvania. Winds are much more veered there than the OV. As the line progresses, it's only going to encounter an even more unstable and equally sheared environment... so conditions will become even more favorable for severe weather in the 4 hours past this frame. Also gotta watch for cells that pop ahead of the line because they could be supercellular... especially in eastern PA.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 21 2017, 10:50 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Undertakerson
post Aug 22 2017, 05:02 AM
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SPC has a large Slight Risk with an embedded ENH Risk area in N PA up into NYS



Attached Image


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 22 2017, 05:03 AM
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MaineJay
post Aug 22 2017, 05:42 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some patchy early morning Valley fog along the Ct River
otherwise a mostly sunny start to the day. Considerable
moisture advection with very high PW`s and increasing shear
will result in rapid destabilization of the atmosphere during
the afternoon. This will result in strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms to develop first across NH and then spread east
into Maine by mid to late afternoon. Temps will be very warm
with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Pooling dewpoints reaching
near 70 will make it feel very muggy.


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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rtcemc
post Aug 22 2017, 08:05 AM
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What would a day be here without rain. We did finally dodge the bombers for the most part last night. Pushed just to our south and weakened. Agree with Cliché as far as decent setup for more bombers. Couple that with dew points in the 70's, these quick shots of heat followed by cold front slamming into the area usually leads to fireworks. LVIA has demanded that I remove my tomato and pepper plants, as it is interfering with their flight patterns. Farmer's corn across the street is reaching Field of Dreams proportions. Silly NWS says we go into a dry pattern for almost a week laugh.gif laugh.gif I'm sure some back door cold front, or tropical system will do a 180 and hit us. We can't possibly break a 5 month pattern of every 2-3 days of wet...
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Miller A
post Aug 22 2017, 09:11 AM
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On the edge of SLGT and MRGL in NWNJ which means I may hear them coming, but it will just be some rain by the time the cells are overhead. Looking forward to a drier pattern as I am sick of the wet grass mucking up my lawn mower.


--------------------
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 22 2017, 09:33 AM
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Really a wicked cell last night. A lot of lightning, wind, tree damage. Lost power. Quite tired of this, but it appears after today a calm period is on the way.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Aug 22 2017, 09:34 AM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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rtcemc
post Aug 22 2017, 09:53 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 22 2017, 10:33 AM) *
Really a wicked cell last night. A lot of lightning, wind, tree damage. Lost power. Quite tired of this, but it appears after today a calm period is on the way.

Nope, a Manitoba Mauler or Alberta Clipper will hit us wink.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 22 2017, 10:14 AM
Post #14




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From: Athens, Ohio
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 22 2017, 10:18 AM
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Latest HRRR... look at those LEWPs



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 22 2017, 11:01 AM
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Tornado watch imminent for the enhanced risk area



QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Areas affected...Portions of NY and northern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 221555Z - 221830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
tornadoes is increasing, and the severe risk will continue through
the afternoon. The issuance of a Tornado Watch will be forthcoming
within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent continues atop a
relatively moist boundary layer characterized by upper 60s to lower
70s surface dewpoints. Pockets of at least modest insolation will
continue to enhance buoyancy, with MLCAPE forecast to increase to
1000-1500 J/kg ahead of a pre-frontal trough/effective boundary
crossing the Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage and intensity from western NY to western PA and
spread eastward and northeastward through the afternoon, amidst weak
capping. The presence of 30-40 kt of effective shear accompanying a
mid-level speed maximum will promote organized convective
structures, including quasi-linear segments and perhaps a few
transient supercells. Moderate low-level shear in the warm sector
associated with a low-level jet, enhanced by a trough-related deep
cyclone north of the area, will support some tornado risk with cells
and with meso-vortices embedded in lines, given 150-300 m2/s2 of
effective SRH. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will be likely --
enhanced with small, line-accompanying rear-inflow jets. A Tornado
Watch will be issued.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Miller A
post Aug 22 2017, 11:42 AM
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I would guess Watches to be issued with the 4pm package


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1154 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>103-105-221900-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester,
Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
1154 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...Severe thunderstorm potential between 6 PM and midnight for a
fairly large portion of eastern Pennsylvania into northwest New
Jersey...

Mt Holly

This post has been edited by Miller A: Aug 22 2017, 11:42 AM


--------------------
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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snowlover2
post Aug 22 2017, 11:46 AM
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From: Dayton,OH
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QUOTE(Miller A @ Aug 22 2017, 12:42 PM) *
I would guess Watches to be issued with the 4pm package
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1154 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>103-105-221900-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester,
Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
1154 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...Severe thunderstorm potential between 6 PM and midnight for a
fairly large portion of eastern Pennsylvania into northwest New
Jersey...

Mt Holly


Tornado watch out already.
Attached Image

QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
New York
Northern Pennsylvania
Western Vermont
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until
900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Numerous storm clusters and lines are expected to develop
this afternoon and progress east-northeast. Strong gusts producing
damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are anticipated.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Saranac
Lake NY to 25 miles southeast of Bradford PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.

...Grams


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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Miller A
post Aug 22 2017, 11:55 AM
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They are not messing around. Interesting day/evening ahead

Just texted my brother in law as he is at Lake George with the kids and doing a lot of boating.

Keep Your Eyes to the Skies!!

This post has been edited by Miller A: Aug 22 2017, 12:01 PM


--------------------
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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rtcemc
post Aug 22 2017, 12:01 PM
Post #20




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From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





I'm sure somehow New Tripoli will become the epicenter again. Go northwest young man, hit Clapper or Pocono or someone that wants severe weather. Here, we are the Beleaguered Bostards of Bastogne.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/allentown...warnings/330295
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