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> Aug 31-Sept 2 Plains/OV Heavy Rain/Flooding, Forecasts & OBS
snowlover2
post Aug 28 2017, 04:27 PM
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Looking more and more likely that the remnants of Harvey with move northeast out of the GOM and up towards the OV bringing heavy rainfall with it.


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# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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yamvmax
post Aug 29 2017, 03:45 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Aug 28 2017, 05:27 PM) *
Looking more and more likely that the remnants of Harvey with move northeast out of the GOM and up towards the OV bringing heavy rainfall with it.


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Just in time for Labor day weekend. I think we have had more rainy weekends this spring/summer on LI than nice ones. This summer has been a bust., Actually spring was terrible too. Watch us have a drought this Winter.
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snowlover2
post Aug 29 2017, 03:45 PM
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WPC Latest
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# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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ValpoSnow
post Aug 31 2017, 10:44 AM
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Looks like some hefty totals for Kentucky and Tennessee tonight through tomorrow. Moves super slowly through the area.

Here's the 12z NAM (which is drier than the 12z GFS thus far):


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ValpoSnow
post Aug 31 2017, 10:49 AM
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12z GFS through 60 hrs (mostly over by this point).

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Meanwhile it will be pretty windy and both models are showing temps in the upper 50s to around 60 tomorrow afternoon, which would be over 20 degrees below normal (I think it'll likely be a bit warmer than guidance is indicating).
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ValpoSnow
post Aug 31 2017, 10:51 AM
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Oh, and the WPC forecast:


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Undertakerson
post Aug 31 2017, 03:44 PM
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Tornado on the ground in North and now south Alabama! ohmy.gif

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yamvmax
post Sep 1 2017, 06:00 AM
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So the Nam has the precip gone for the NYC/LI area by sunday, yet GFS has it all day. Thoughts? Can we trust the NAM? While I hate complaining about rain on the holiday weekend, as Houston tries to recover from insane flooding, just trying to figure out my weekend plans.
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Juniorrr
post Sep 1 2017, 09:28 AM
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QUOTE(yamvmax @ Sep 1 2017, 07:00 AM) *
So the Nam has the precip gone for the NYC/LI area by sunday, yet GFS has it all day. Thoughts? Can we trust the NAM? While I hate complaining about rain on the holiday weekend, as Houston tries to recover from insane flooding, just trying to figure out my weekend plans.

I say perhaps broken up decaying showers Sat morn with higher chances late night into Sunday morning/early aftn. NAM is pretty good within 36 hrs.


Currently feels like fall with the wind and soon to be cold rain. wink.gif
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Snow____
post Sep 1 2017, 09:40 AM
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Under a FFW now I see. The precip shield was sitting in Northern Kentucky early this morning when I woke up. I see that it has now moved North and into Cincy. Going to be a wet and cold day today.


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ValpoSnow
post Sep 1 2017, 10:49 AM
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Friend took this in Guthrie, Kentucky (WKY) this morning:


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ValpoSnow
post Sep 1 2017, 12:40 PM
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Several spots over 6" across KY.
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Snow____
post Sep 1 2017, 05:17 PM
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ILN Radar is always down lately.


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Juniorrr
post Sep 2 2017, 07:45 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Sep 1 2017, 06:17 PM) *
ILN Radar is always down lately.

Yea I couldn't even follow what was going on yesterday. Just saw it raining and was cold so stood inside tongue.gif
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Snow____
post Sep 2 2017, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Sep 2 2017, 08:45 PM) *
Yea I couldn't even follow what was going on yesterday. Just saw it raining and was cold so stood inside tongue.gif

Same lol. Occasionally I pulled up the Great Lakes Radar. But sucks to have an event and can't follow it.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 3 2017, 10:34 PM
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Got a bit of 850mb WAA coming our way



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 4 2017, 02:18 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 3 2017, 11:34 PM) *
Got a bit of 850mb WAA coming our way


Lapse rates have steepened as a result



And we still got solid WAA/EML advection ongoing. Easy to see the source of this environment... straight out of the deserts of Nevada. Can also see the obvious shortwave that'll be responsible for tomorrows weather.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 4 2017, 02:22 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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