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MaineJay
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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MaineJay

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15 Feb 2018
Feel free to revel in the warmth, or complain about it. laugh.gif it's all good.

EPS
Attached Image


Decent warm up, likely means posted roads, and maple sap running.

GYX

QUOTE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential:

* Potential for light snow accumulations Saturday Night through
early Sunday.

* Significant warm up becoming increasingly likely next week
with potential hydro concerns.


Pattern: Persistent pattern of the past few days continues early
this morning with vortex centered just north of Hudson Bay...another
over eastern Asia....with ridging just off the west coast of North
America with early morning water vapor imagery revealing a
shortwave helping re-establish troughing over the southwestern
United States. Deterministic/ensemble guidance remains in strong
agreement in maintaining this pattern through the coming
weekend. Beyond this...there continues to be strong signals for
a significant pattern change with Pacific ridge retrograding
west and building...which allows significant troughing to take
shape over western North America with a weakening/eastward shift
of the Hudson Bay vortex. This favors building heights over
eastern North America with a Bermuda high setup directing deep
southwesterly flow along the eastern seaboard. The flow remains
progressive through this period with no downstream blocking...
so even this warm up does not look to remain with us for very
long
. Primary forecast concerns through the long term forecast
period include potential weekend snowfall...then the focus turns
to deep moisture plume along the eastern flank of developing
longwave trough and how much precipitation potential we have
from this feature.

The Details...


Monday-Monday Night: High pressure will be centered just east of the
region to begin Monday with warm advection and top down saturation
rapidly setting in as the day progresses. Thus...expect an increase
in clouds with rain showers approaching from the south and west
towards evening. T9s moving to around the freezing mark should allow
40s for areas outside of the mountains. Showery precipitation looks
to arrive Monday night and will likely take the form of rain for
most location...with the potential for a mix at the onset over the
mountains although even here temperatures aloft warm rapidly so the
threat will more likely be from pockets of trapped low level
cold air potentially leading to some freezing rain. Mild night
with a non- diurnal trend likely /temps slowly rising through
the night/ with 30s and potentially some 40s south.

Tuesday - Wednesday: Substantial run to run and model to model
differences develop by this time range with the EC/GFS/GGEM /and
their ensemble counterparts/ all favoring a western trough...
but very different evolutions along the eastern flank of this
feature...reducing confidence. There is good confidence in
temperatures moving well above normal for Tuesday and likely
Wednesday with T8s at or above 10C
. PWATs also increase
dramatically as the Gulf of Mexico opens up. Looking at both the
EC EPS and the GEFS...there is certainly enough overlap in
guidance thinking to keep chance PoPs through this period...with
the greatest precipitation potential favored west as current
indications suggest that the best heavy rainfall signal will be
west of our region. Certainly something to keep an eye on for
potential hydro concerns. Otherwise...story will be
temperatures...with good agreement that T9s move to near or
above 10C Tuesday...with some potential to be warmer still on
Wednesday. While this suggests the potential for 60s...have to
be careful with precipitation potential as well as decreasing
confidence... particularly on Wednesday. Still...boosting highs
for both days with 40s north and 50s south is a good starting
point that can be adjusted as confidence grows.
23 Dec 2017
I thought it might make sense to start a thread to document the upcoming cold. Not sure of the end date, suggestions welcomed.

EPS

Attached Image


Also, since there might be some waves that move along the edge of the cold, feel free to discuss potential for snow if there's no thread for it. smile.gif

GYX
QUOTE
Beyond Christmas we begin to see signs of very cold air poised
to drop into the area. The core of a very cold Arctic low will
be sitting over south central Canada and southwest Hudson Bay,
and the departure of the Christmas storm will begin to draw this
cold air southeastward into northern New England. With the fresh
coat of snow across New England, expect this cold air mass to
encounter little resistance in heading this way, reaching our
area with full potency. The leading edge of this cold air
arrives on Tuesday, with a stiff west northwest wind
accompanying it. 925MB temperatures of -20C to -30C suggest
surface temperatures falling below zero Tuesday evening in the
northern and eastern part of the area in spite of the low level
mixing. Very dry air mass, fresh snow pack, and some of the
longest nights of the year should allow nighttime temperatures
to fall below zero area wide, and to -20F or colder in the
northern valleys Wednesday night and Thursday night
. Daytime
highs may not rise above zero in northern and eastern areas for
a few days!
It is likely that a wind chill headline of some sort
(Advisory or Warning) will be needed for part of the area when
this cold air arrives, most likely in the Tuesday to Wednesday
time period when winds are still fairly strong.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
12 Nov 2017
I'm 99.9% sure this doesn't have a thread. smile.gif

I figured since the was a "gap" between UTS' and Poc's threads, why not fill it with another storm threat? laugh.gif Well, actually the UKie told me to do it.

UKie
Attached Image
http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php


Wave spacing is very tight, the UTS "storm" is barely off the coast, and more energy tries to amplify.

EPS H5 with spread.
Attached Image
Attached Image


GEFS H5 with spread
Attached Image
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...MO=&PERIOD=


Last 5 ECMWF runs. Last run is valid at hour 114, this is when models start to become a bit more reliable. Unfortunately, there appears to be subtle phasing details which have significant sensible weather effects. So I'll be watching for the potential for stream interactions. Or even a brief cutting off.

It's definitely trended deeper over these 5 cycles.

Attached Image
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php
5 Nov 2017
Okay, I wanted to keep things tidy. Not start any bad habits.

ECMWF

Attached Image

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php


Last 7 GFS runs, everything is shifting. Notably, the northern stream looks far more progressive, and the southern feature looks like it might want to play. It's pretty close on the 5.06z.

Attached Image
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0


UKie, is like, um, no. Maybe next time?

Attached Image

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=144


CMC also a whiff

Attached Image



With tectonic shifts in the northern stream, hard to rule out any possibilities here. My opinion.


Real nice disco from Rubin-Oster.
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
103 AM EST SUN NOV 05 2017

VALID 12Z WED NOV 08 2017 - 12Z SUN NOV 12 2017

...PATTERN OVERVIEW/GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS NOTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH A FEW PRIMARY
FEATURES TO NOTE. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
..A STRETCHED OUT STRIP OF
VORTICITY SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD REACHING THE MID-SOUTH BY THE FOLLOWING
MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SOME WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EXITING WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE MAY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LOOKING BACK TOWARD THE WEST COAST...A POWERFUL UPPER
LOW WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH FORECAST 500-MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO POSSIBLY 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE VIA THE 00Z GFS. THIS CLOSED CIRCULATION
SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN CA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WHILE GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
THEREAFTER. A LIKELY PROGRESSIVE STACK OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
NEXT WEEKEND. LASTLY...AMPLIFICATION IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
POTENTIALLY DRAW A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO SECTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. MODELS EXHIBIT
EXTREME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE
WHICH WILL BE NOTED IN THE
FOLLOWING SECTION. LASTLY...AMPLIFIED FLOW RETURNS TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.


REGARDING THE INITIAL STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD THE
LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMPLITUDE WAVE. THIS WOULD INDUCE A MODEST REGION
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHIFTING FOCUS TO THE WEST
COAST...MULTI-MODEL CYCLE TRENDS SHOW AN EASTWARD JOG WITH THE
POSITION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LARGEST DIFFERENCES ARE WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WITH MANY OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FAVORING A HIGHER DEGREE OF AMPLITUDE. AS THE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS MARCH TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY...THE SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES COMPLICATED BY EFFECTS FROM
THE AMPLIFICATION IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS
OF THE ECMWF SHOWING MUCH GREATER SOUTHWARD ELONGATION OF THIS
TROUGH...A ROBUST SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES WOULD BE
AROUND 1036-MB ON 10/1200Z BASED ON THESE ECMWF RUNS.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/18Z/12Z GFS WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE CYCLONE IN
THIS EXACT POSITION WHICH LEADS TO QUITE A FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE
00Z GFS FROM YESTERDAY WAS THE LAST RUN IN ITS SUITE WHICH
DEPICTED THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION SHOWN BY THE ECMWF. UNTIL THE
00Z CMC ARRIVED LOOKING MORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF...THE CMC/UKMET
HAD NOT OFFERED MUCH RECENT SUPPORT FOR THIS AMPLIFIED SCENARIO.
COMPARISON OF MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CMC/GEFS HAVE BEEN
WAFFLING AROUND ALL OVER THE PLACE. SUFFICE TO SAY...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS AT HAND HERE. FINALLY...ALL GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES AGREE ON A RETURN OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEKEND....A GENERAL REPEAT OF WHAT IS IN PLACE ON
DAY 3/WEDNESDAY.


GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD ITS SOLUTION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AMONG THE GFS CYCLES...FAVORED THE PREVIOUS
00Z RUN AS IT HAD THE MOST IN COMMON WITH THE ECMWF WHILE ALSO
STAYING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO CONTINUITY. GENERALLY TOOK AN EVEN
SPLIT OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE QUICKLY
INCORPORATING A MORE ENSEMBLE BASED APPROACH AFTER FRIDAY. DID
THROW A TOKEN AMOUNT OF THE 18Z GFS IN THE MIX TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
SHIFT TOWARD A MORE DE-AMPLIFIED SCENARIO.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREATS...

EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WELL AS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION...MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
ENTRENCHED IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
OF COURSE THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL CHOICE WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF DIVERGING BY ALMOST 30 DEGREES BY DAY 5/FRIDAY
. GIVEN A
COLD SOLUTION WAS FAVORED...EXPECTED DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WILL
BE AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AS THE MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THE COLD SPOT
SHOULD BE FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE SINGLE
DIGITS UNTIL FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN.

THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE AN INITIAL FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
ALL
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVED TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIED THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW
WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CA UP ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARD THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE CASCADES...BITTERROOTS...SAWTOOTH...AND TETONS.
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ALTHOUGH IT IS UNKNOWN HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN
THERE WILL BE. AND ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE MEAGER...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE

ACCOMPANYING THE POTENTIAL ARCTIC INTRUSION.


RUBIN-OSTER

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

GYX

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall 500 mb hemispheric pattern in the models looks fairly
similar to previous runs, with large scale troughing over
central providing mostly zonal flow to the nrn tier of CONUS.
Initially will see more of a SW flow, which will eventually
translate to a cyclonic tendency later in the forecast period.
Still looking at temps running normal, but skewing slightly cool
thru most of the week, with a possible brief shot of December
air Fri-Sat.

Digging trough extending equatorward from deeper closed low near
Hudson will swing SE across the CWA Fri into Sat. This could
produce some rain or snow showers in the mtns and foothills Thu
night into Fri and a shot of below normal air moving in Fri-Sat.
00Z Euro backing off a bit on the cold, but still look for below
normal temps with highs FR-Sat in the upper 30s to mid 40s and
lows Fri night in the 20s, and maybe some teens in the mtns. The
cold air will be quick to leave with temps climbing back to
near normal on Sunday.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
17 Oct 2017
Looks like we will be seeing a potent trough traverse the country. Perry high amplitude flow. Hopefully bringing much needed rain to many of us.


Remarkable similarities at day 8 in the deterministics.

ECMWF
Attached Image


GFS
Attached Image


http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

The eastern trough could linger as well.

6-10 day analogs
Attached Image


8-14 day
Attached Image


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...4day/analog.php


Total 10 day precip

ECMWF

Attached Image


GFS
Attached Image



Details will be ironed out, but the general idea is there. Typical timing/strength/location differences.
Ensembles
EPS
Attached Image

GFS
Attached Image

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...WMO=&ZOOM=0

Nice discussion

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 20 2017 - 12Z TUE OCT 24 2017

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INTO THE
WEEKEND AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN GUIDANCE CONTINUITY.
IN THIS PERIOD THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN US.
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH RELATED HEIGHT FALLS SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST
FRI THAT WORK INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN US AND ROCKIES INTO
SAT. EXPECT HEAVY PCPN OVER THE NWRN US INTO CA WITH INITIAL
MOISTURE FEED THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME RUNOFF ISSUES. DYNAMICALLY
DRIVEN/TERRAIN ENHANCED AMOUNTS THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. COOLING TEMPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
HIGH PRESSURE SURGE WILL SUPPORT SOME HEAVY TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOWS
IN A PERIOD WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM PACIFIC
ENERGIES PUNCHING INTO THE NWRN US SHOULD ADD ANOTHER SHOT OF
MODERATE PCPN INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING SHOULD THEN USHER IN A DRY PATTERN WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATER
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
US. GUIDANCE HAS NOT OFFERED STELLAR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE FORECAST OF SUBSEQUENT STREAM SEPARATION AS AFOREMENTIONED WRN
US TROUGH ENERGIES PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL US AND LATER THE ERN
US. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING DEEP CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS SHIFTED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS FROM AS FAR
WEST AS THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS THEN LOWER MS VALLEY.
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS HAS BEEN MARGINAL...AND THE LATEST 00
UTC ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TRENDING TO A MUCH WEAKER LOW SHIFTED
PROGRESIVELY EASTWARD UNDERNEATH INCREASINGLY DOMINANT AND NRN
STREAM TROUGH ENERGIES DIGGING SEWD FROM THE N-CENTRAL US MON TO
THE E-CENTRAL US TUE. ACCORDINGLY...THE NOTION THAT THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION ECMWF MIGHT BE CATCHING ONTO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SRN
STREAM SYSTEM NOT SHOWN WELL IN OTHER GUIDANCE HAS DWINDLED.
INSTEAD EXPECT THERE MAY WELL BE STREAM SEPARATION TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT OVERALL EXPECT A POTENT AND WAVY COLD FRONT AND
EMERGING DEEP INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INLAND AND NORTHWARD
TO FUEL A PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US NEXT WEEK WITH THE EMERGING
NRN STREAM AMPLITUDE LIFTING ACTIVITY RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
ERN THIRD OF THE NATION WITH ACTIVITY ADDING WRN ATLANTIC INFLOW
OEVR TIME. MOST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AND WPC PROGS
WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED WITH A COMPOSITE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE BLEND
THAT DE-EMPHASIZED MUCH OF THE EARLIER ECMWF POTENTIAL.


SCHICHTEL


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd



GYX
QUOTE
The large area of high pressure will be situated over New
England on Saturday. A further moderating trend will begin as
the flow switches to the southwest with the surface ridge moving
off the coastline. The onshore flow may lead to some low
cloudiness, especially along and near the coastline late in the
weekend. By early next week, models continue to slowly come in
better agreement with a slow moving trough approaching the east
coast. Plenty of moisture will potentially move poleward from
the tropical Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico to bring well
needed precipitation to the region next week.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
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