Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Profile
Personal Photo
Rating
 
Options
Options
Personal Statement
Please just refer to me by my first name, Peter. I'm 22 years old, from West Chester, Ohio. As of Fall 2015, I'm a student at Ohio University studying Meteorology. I'm specifically interested in severe weather and tornadoes.
Personal Info
ClicheVortex2014
Rank: F5 Superstorm
24 years old
Male
Athens, Ohio
Born June-30-1993
Interests
No Information
Statistics
Joined: 21-April 14
Profile Views: 82,574*
Last Seen: Today, 08:36 PM
Local Time: Feb 18 2018, 09:06 PM
21,450 posts (15 per day)
Contact Information
AIM No Information
Yahoo No Information
ICQ No Information
MSN No Information
Contact Private
* Profile views updated each hour

ClicheVortex2014

Member

***


Topics
Posts
Comments
Friends
My Content
14 Feb 2018
The SPC has mentioned severe potential from the southern Plains to the OV. CIPS analogs (GFS and GEFS) show an active severe weather pattern is ahead.

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern will likely begin to amplify late D5/Sunday as a
strong shortwave trough digs southward through the Pacific Northwest
and into the Great Basin. Just how far south the shortwave travels
before ejecting northeastward is in question, with the amplification
likely modified by the strength of the subtropical ridging
downstream and/or the strength of jet throughout its western
periphery. At the same time, a surface low, attendant to a subtle
shortwave trough moving through the southwesterly flow aloft, will
likely move towards the Upper Great Lakes as an associated cold
front sweeps across the Plains.

Combination of increasing southwesterly flow aloft downstream of the
deepening upper trough, forcing for ascent provided by the cold
front, and a modestly moist and unstable airmass could support
severe thunderstorms early next week, particularly from east TX into
the lower OH Valley. However, forecast uncertainty currently remains
too high to outlook any areas at this time.



21 Jan 2018
Slight risk for damaging wind and tornadoes. Been a long time since there's been a severe weather event, so I'm excited to finally track some storms.


12 Nov 2017
A trough is going to swing in toward the end of this week, take a negative tilt and bomb out. GFS is showing pressure as deep as mid-970's in Michigan. The warm sector is narrow but has mid-50 dew points up to northern IN and northern OH. With how strong the wind fields are, there are going to be strong winds and high gusts throughout the day... but I think there'll be especially strong to severe winds with the frontal passage. This setup is pretty typical of HSLC (high shear low CAPE) squalls. Doubt there'll be much thunder, but I think there's just enough moisture and instability that some very strong winds will mix to the surface with the rain.

Bombogenesis: 996mb to 971mb in 24 hours. 500mb winds up to 110 MPH are pushing the system along.





29 Oct 2017
The period starts with a shortwave riding the STJ... severe weather threat in Texas. Meanwhile a western trough is dipping down and when it comes east it'll set up another round of severe weather.






19 Oct 2017
This snuck up on me.


QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OK AND
PARTS OF NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TX
TO EASTERN KS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX
TO SOUTHWEST IA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, including large hail and damaging winds, will
develop late Saturday afternoon across eastern Kansas into western
Oklahoma. Severe squall line will progress into the
lower/mid-Mississippi Valley during the overnight hours.

...Texas to Iowa...

Short-range model guidance supports earlier thoughts regarding the
evolution of a strong trough as it progresses across the western US
into the Plains Saturday night. As the trough approaches the Plains,
LLJ will strengthen markedly ahead of a pronounced cold front, and
higher-PW plume will surge north across TX into portions of the
eastern central Plains where values could approach 1.5". Latest data
suggests a sharp front will extend from western MN, southwest across
central KS into the northern TX Panhandle at 18z, then into eastern
KS-central OK-northwest TX by 22/00z. This boundary will be the
focus for organized severe thunderstorms as it surges southeast.

Early-day capping will suppress convection along the front until mid
afternoon across eastern KS/western IA where inhibition will weaken
sufficiently for frontal convection, most likely by 21z. Farther
southwest along the boundary into western OK, strong surface heating
should contribute to steeper low-level lapse rates as temperatures
warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Substantial SBCAPE (2500-3000
J/kg) is forecast across western OK prior to convective initiation
and strengthening shear profiles suggest initial convection across
this region could be supercellular in nature. However, strong
large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a rapidly maturing
squall line that should encompass the frontal zone from eastern KS
into southwest OK by 22/00z. Elongated MCS, with possible bow-type
structures, should surge east-southeast toward AR and northeast TX
during the overnight hours. While a tornado or two can not be ruled
out given the forecast shear, damaging winds may ultimately be the
greatest risk with this convection. Additionally, very large hail
could accompany supercells that develop early in the convective
cycle over the southern Plains.

GFS



NAM

Last Visitors


8 Feb 2018 - 21:48


2 Feb 2018 - 9:34


1 Feb 2018 - 22:10


29 Jan 2018 - 10:56
Guest


23 Jan 2018 - 8:15

Comments
Other users have left no comments for ClicheVortex2014.

Friends
There are no friends to display.
RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 18th February 2018 - 09:06 PM