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> Hurricane Irene, Archive
njyankee1979
post Aug 25 2011, 03:49 PM
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QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Aug 25 2011, 04:43 PM) *
Why do you continue to downplay this event?



Downplay?? I think he is trying to be calm and call it straight...the chance that it hits NC and drives on and off the coast due north and reaches the nyc area as anything more than a TS (NOT a cat 1) are pretty bad.
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RickRD
post Aug 25 2011, 03:49 PM
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I know I have been posting the PBP, but all should note: I do not trust the NAM past 48-54 hrs.
IMO. not saying it is incorrect. just some wiggle room is needed when looking at the NAM that far out.

Rick

This post has been edited by RickRD: Aug 25 2011, 03:49 PM
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post Aug 25 2011, 03:49 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Aug 25 2011, 04:46 PM) *
If this isn't a NYC landfall, it has to be very close to NYC this run. Definitely a shift west from the 12z run.

[attachment=139896:18znam85...LPp06078.gif]


Any chance you can post total precip once this runs finished? Allan Huffman won't update for me for some reason. dry.gif
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SnowMan11
post Aug 25 2011, 03:49 PM
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12z Euro ensemble mean has the low riding up the coast.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecm...mbTSLPUS072.gif

QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Aug 25 2011, 04:46 PM) *
If this isn't a NYC landfall, it has to be very close to NYC this run. Definitely a shift west from the 12z run.

[attachment=139896:18znam85...LPp06078.gif]


It is right on top of NYC,maybe slightly right of the city.


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stanb999
post Aug 25 2011, 03:49 PM
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QUOTE(Bostonhurricane @ Aug 25 2011, 03:47 PM) *
Dude , come on. I'm being a realist. What I said is absolutely possible if not likely. You want to argue that?
Fact: slower- cold water, land interaction and shear
Fact: track could still go way west which means it would be way weaker up here. Argue that?

I'm sick of people crying Armageddon 3 days before. Then, will people give their real opinion on what could really happen. Based on actual data, they cry and say we are down playing the event. It's ridiculous. Like that guy who said this is the thought process that gets people killed. Just a ridiclous comment. I was here in 96 and last year when we made preperations only to get nothing. People who make comments like this live in Pennsylvania and it's awful. I'm a realist and saying whats possibl.



Bastardi is comparing this to the 1821 storm. Where you there?



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LoveNYCSnow
post Aug 25 2011, 03:49 PM
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If the NAM is right, NYC is going to be destroyed.


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2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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Removed_Member_Niyologist_*
post Aug 25 2011, 03:49 PM
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QUOTE(DomNH @ Aug 25 2011, 04:48 PM) *
That's about the worst track for SNE...pretty much all of SNE on the east, windier, side. NYC gets heavy gusts and a ton of rain.


I think Saturday Morning will be a sure fire of certainty for the Model Guidance Consensus.
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Bostonhurricane
post Aug 25 2011, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(DomNH @ Aug 25 2011, 04:46 PM) *
If this comes up the coast and the only land interaction over the center is OBX and HSE, this will hit Long Island as a Cat. 1 hurricane. How often does the interior outside of Cape Cod and the Islands see 70+ mph gusts from a nor'easter?


sure thats possible. I don't think it's likely to be a Cat 1 landfalling Hurricane in New England. Not the way it looks right now. How many Noreasters have caused 40-55MPH wind on the cape? Plenty.
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410mdweather
post Aug 25 2011, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(njyankee1979 @ Aug 25 2011, 04:49 PM) *
Downplay?? I think he is trying to be calm and call it straight...the chance that it hits NC and drives on and off the coast due north and reaches the nyc area as anything more than a TS (NOT a cat 1) are pretty bad.


I don't mean to be argumentative, but the National Hurricane Center, which seems to be the leading authority on hurricanes as it is the National Hurricane Center, has this passing over NYC with hurricane wind speeds. A category 1 hurricane isn't even same ballpark as a nor'easter
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Bostonhurricane
post Aug 25 2011, 03:51 PM
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QUOTE(stanb999 @ Aug 25 2011, 04:49 PM) *
Bastardi is comparing this to the 1821 storm. Where you there?


were you? Why don't you tell me the effect of the 1821 storm in Boston. Minimal. Thanks for proving my point.
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beninbaltimore
post Aug 25 2011, 03:51 PM
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A snippet from the 3:50pm AFD out of Sterling:

".SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HURRICANE IRENE WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUMP IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS FRIDAY EVENING. OUTER BANDS FROM
IRENE WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE
MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IRENE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO IMPACT THIS AREA AS
WELL. GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST DURING THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
NHC FORECASTS. A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF IRENE WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.
"


source


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post Aug 25 2011, 03:51 PM
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QUOTE(Bostonhurricane @ Aug 25 2011, 04:47 PM) *
Dude , come on. I'm being a realist. What I said is absolutely possible if not likely. You want to argue that?
Fact: slower- cold water, land interaction and shear
Fact: track could still go way west which means it would be way weaker up here
. Argue that?

I'm sick of people crying Armageddon 3 days before. Then, will people give their real opinion on what could really happen. Based on actual data, they cry and say we are down playing the event. It's ridiculous. Like that guy who said this is the thought process that gets people killed. Just a ridiclous comment. I was here in 96 and last year when we made preperations only to get nothing. People who make comments like this live in Pennsylvania and it's awful. I'm a realist and saying whats possibl.



The water is warmer than normal, there is very little shear, and the only time it is over land, the west trend will not continue, it is only partially on land, there are so many flaws in your forecast, and I live on LI, so I am in its direct path, I dont think that you are in it, so stop downplaying this very bad event, people get killed when people like you downplay events like this.
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Boston Patriots
post Aug 25 2011, 03:52 PM
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QUOTE(Bostonhurricane @ Aug 25 2011, 04:50 PM) *
sure thats possible. I don't think it's likely to be a Cat 1 landfalling Hurricane in New England. Not the way it looks right now. How many Noreasters have caused 40-55MPH wind on the cape? Plenty.


LOL. Again.....no leaves on trees = can't even compare.



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post Aug 25 2011, 03:52 PM
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QUOTE(stanb999 @ Aug 25 2011, 04:49 PM) *
Bastardi is comparing this to the 1821 storm. Where you there?



He is upset that he is not getting a storm that no one wants.
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post Aug 25 2011, 03:52 PM
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QUOTE(RickRD @ Aug 25 2011, 04:49 PM) *
I know I have been posting the PBP, but all should note: I do not trust the NAM past 48-54 hrs.
IMO. not saying it is incorrect. just some wiggle room is needed when looking at the NAM that far out.

Rick


I agree. Although it has the sampled energy. I don't know if the other models have it though. unsure.gif
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wesshock
post Aug 25 2011, 03:53 PM
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I thought the SREFs usually mimicked the NAM???
But this is NOT the NAM

Source
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 25 2011, 03:54 PM
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I almost forgot that NHC had a 5 PM update...

Still a category 3 hurricane, track seems to have shifted slightly west once again taking Irene right over central NJ:

Attached Image


Source

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shaunalbany
post Aug 25 2011, 03:54 PM
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QUOTE(Bostonhurricane @ Aug 25 2011, 04:50 PM) *
sure thats possible. I don't think it's likely to be a Cat 1 landfalling Hurricane in New England. Not the way it looks right now. How many Noreasters have caused 40-55MPH wind on the cape? Plenty.


So did you cancel the rooms you booked?
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HassayWx2306
post Aug 25 2011, 03:54 PM
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LETS STOP ARGUING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Property and lives are about to be at stake. This isn't 1821, Floyd, Bob, Ike, or any other Hurricane. This is Irene. People are nervous, Scared, and want to know what to do. This shouldn't be time to argue if she hits as a 3, 1, Ts, or whatever. This is for information with models NHC, and discussion. to forecast or at least let people know that are on here, or have found this forum whats going on, and what could happen, plus to be prepared. so please stop with all this nonsense fellow Accuweathers. It's just for the better. wink.gif

This post has been edited by HassayWx2306: Aug 25 2011, 03:55 PM
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Ithiel
post Aug 25 2011, 03:54 PM
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Irene is looking real good the past couple of hours, seems to be growing as well.
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