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> Sept. 15-16 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level:Day 1 Marginal, Day 2 Slight Risk
snowlover2
post Sep 12 2017, 11:33 AM
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Looks like something to track finally.
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QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday...
The 00Z ECMWF/GFS differ some with the track of the Day 3 Four
Corners shortwave trough as it continues to lose amplitude during
D4/Friday, tracking through the northern Plains to northern MN and
adjacent northwest Ontario. At the surface, an area of low pressure
should move from western NE to northeast SD by 16/00Z, and into
northwest MN by 12Z Saturday. Despite weak 500-mb height falls,
DPVA with the progressive shortwave trough and increasing ascent
attendant to a strengthening southerly low-level jet extending into
eastern SD Friday afternoon suggest thunderstorm development should
occur near the surface low and trailing cold front. Moderate
instability and vertically veering winds should prove favorable for
severe storms from central and eastern SD into central NE, with hail
and strong/damaging winds being the primary threats.

...D5/Saturday...
Although a cold front should advance east across the upper MS Valley
and south through the central Plains, models suggest stronger
forcing for ascent should lag the cold front. 00Z ECMWF and GFS
differ in the attendant amplitude of the midlevel trough reaching
the northern Plains late Saturday afternoon and also into MN and
western WI Saturday night. Some severe storms may occur across the
upper MS Valley into IA, but model differences in the amplitude of
the progressive trough preclude the introduction of a 15% percent
severe probability area for D5/Saturday.

..Peters.. 09/12/2017


This post has been edited by snowlover2: Sep 15 2017, 11:45 AM


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# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 12 2017, 09:23 PM
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Good to see the seasons change even though I think I'm starting to get a cold. August is the most boring month; although it's warm, it's rare that anything happens in the Midwest. And it's at this point I'm almost ready for the steps down into winter


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 12 2017, 11:35 PM
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Posts: 20,624
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





You know Fall is here when you see drylines again



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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