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nkovatch85
Rank: Tornado
33 years old
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Mishawaka, IN
Born Oct-4-1985
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Local Time: Oct 15 2018, 07:30 PM
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nkovatch85

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19 Feb 2018
I haven't seen a thread strictly for the wintry side of this storm. Potential is there for some significant icing after the front moves through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning across Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. Still quite a bit of question as to how quickly the cold air swings in before the precip ends and how these warm temps affect ice accretion. GFS doesn't show anything, however, Euro, NAM and Canadian show potential for a quarter inch or more in some spots. (I don't have access to Euro map but a friend of mine said the 12z run showed 1/4 to 1/3 inch of ice accumulation for Central Illinois). Maps and ILX discussion below.

QUOTE
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Our initial precipitation event will persist into Tuesday
night/early Wednesday, with a gradual ending from northwest to
southeast. As surface temperatures fall below freezing across most
of the area later Tuesday night into early Wednesday, any
lingering precipitation will change to a wintry mix of freezing
rain, sleet and possibly snow. However, considerable model spread
still exists with how quickly the surface temperatures go below
freezing and/or how quickly the precipitation ends behind the
front. This spread results in freezing rain/ice potential from
none to a couple tenths of an inch or more. Decided to go with a
lower-end ice potential for now toward the stronger model
consensus. Ice totals will also be diminished due to the warm
surface temperatures from today`s & tomorrow`s heating. However,
the ice threat will need to be monitored closely.

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25 Nov 2013
I get to drive through this on my way home for Thanksgiving. If anyone has more detailed data and analysis it would be greatly appreciated.



Lake Effect Snow Watch for parts of Northern Indiana and extreme Southwest Lower Michigan.

QUOTE
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO FUNNEL
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FULL LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN COMBINED
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNCERTAINTIES TIED TO THE LOCATION AND PERSISTENCE OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOW REMAIN. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP.

INZ003-004-012>015-MIZ077-260900-
/O.NEW.KIWX.LE.A.0004.131127T0500Z-131128T0000Z/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYM
UTH...
BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...NILES...BENT
N HARBOR...
ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
354 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013 /254 PM CST MON NOV 25 2013/

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF BANDS PERSIST.

* NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.

IMPACTS...

* HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD PLAN ON ENCOUNTERING HAZARDOUS WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF US 30...INTERSTATE 94 AND
THE TOLL ROAD OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY.

* VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. DRIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND DETERIORATING DRIVING CONDITIONS.
1 Oct 2013


This thread is for the severe aspects of the storm October 3-6. This is the first time I've created a topic, so if things need to be changed I understand. SPC highlighting areas in its Day 4 outlook with a 30 percent or higher of severe weather. This correlates to Friday possibly becoming an active day and the start of the autumn severe weather season. There's also "see text" days Wednesday and Thursday. Text from SPC for Day 4 is below.

QUOTE
THE WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY/D4...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NEB/IA
BORDER FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING NEWD INTO MN OVERNIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ON THE ORDER OF 65-68 F WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...E OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
TRAILING S FROM THE SURFACE LOW...AND S OF A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN INTO CNTRL WI.

DUE TO COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PERHAPS NEAR 8.0 C/KM...ATOP A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN CLASSIC LOADED GUN PROFILES.
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY LARGE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...AND WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...AND
VERY LARGE HAIL. A FASTER MOVING FRONT OR EARLIER INITIATION COULD
LEAD TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT DETAILS SUCH
AS THESE HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.

...FRIDAY D4: ERN KS...OK...WRN MO...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FARTHER N. STILL...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. INTERROGATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING WILL
BE A FACTOR AWAY FROM THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...ANY CHANCE OF
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE IN A VERY SHORT TIME WINDOW UNTIL THE
FRONT UNDERCUTS THEM...ACROSS WRN AREAS WHERE HEATING IS STRONGEST.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL OCCUR
WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

...SATURDAY D5: MI INTO THE LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME OCCLUDED INTO SAT/D5 AS THE LOW
ROTATES NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR
HAIL...BUT THE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END.
22 Dec 2011
Hello everyone. I was wondering if anyone else out there has the Midland All Hazards Weather Alert Radio WR-100. My first question concerns the types of "headlines" that will set it off. I notice there is a light for "warning" "watch" and "advisory". Just curious if it's going to be going off for fog, winter weather and severe summertime weather, too. Also, has anyone had any problems with it? Are you happy with it? Thanks!
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