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> Feb 22-23 Eastern Canada Winter Storm
MrMusic
post Feb 18 2015, 02:27 PM
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Models are showing a storm somewhere in the Eastern part of North America over the weekend, although with quite a spread of possible tracks at the moment.
DGEX seems furthest south, while the GEM seems furthest NW.

12z UKIE





12z CMC snowfall by Feb 22



12z GFS total precipitation



06z DGEX



Brett's initial map:



This post has been edited by MrMusic: Feb 18 2015, 02:42 PM


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowblower4
post Feb 18 2015, 02:43 PM
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nice, if it turns into a good one I wonder if the Weather Channel will name it Oscar dry.gif
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MrMusic
post Feb 18 2015, 02:48 PM
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Today's 12z GFS with a general 5-10cm for Southern Ontario

Hour 90:


Hour 96:


Hour 102:


Hour 108:


Total snowfall at Hour 108:



As you can see, there is a little nose of 12+ cm across the North shore of Lake Erie



--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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HoBOonFiRE
post Feb 18 2015, 03:16 PM
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Latest Euro has .88" of qpf (all snow) for Toronto.
1.13" qpf for Hamilton with some mixing near the tail end of the storm.
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plowguy
post Feb 18 2015, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE(HoBOonFiRE @ Feb 18 2015, 03:16 PM) *
Latest Euro has .88" of qpf (all snow) for Toronto.
1.13" qpf for Hamilton with some mixing near the tail end of the storm.

Is that not 11" of snow for Hamilton at 10:1?
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MrMusic
post Feb 18 2015, 04:08 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Feb 18 2015, 03:37 PM) *
Is that not 11" of snow for Hamilton at 10:1?


Yup!

Gonna have to watch this one. Huge spread on the models.



--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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plowguy
post Feb 18 2015, 04:15 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 18 2015, 04:08 PM) *
Yup!

Gonna have to watch this one. Huge spread on the models.

I just shoveled my driveway and watched about 200 geese flying North! I hope they know something!
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HoBOonFiRE
post Feb 18 2015, 05:09 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Feb 18 2015, 04:15 PM) *
I just shoveled my driveway and watched about 200 geese flying North! I hope they know something!

Well considering it's going to get quite cold again tonight I think they may be confused laugh.gif
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MrMusic
post Feb 18 2015, 05:40 PM
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QUOTE(HoBOonFiRE @ Feb 18 2015, 05:09 PM) *
Well considering it's going to get quite cold again tonight I think they may be confused laugh.gif


haha...I think they are 2 weeks too early.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Cre47
post Feb 18 2015, 05:58 PM
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Will this be the first system in a while that will bring precip other than snow for New Brunswick and PEI as well as Southern New England? Sounds like a track favorable for a changeover to rain or at least freezing rain for NB.

This post has been edited by Cre47: Feb 18 2015, 05:59 PM
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travis3000
post Feb 18 2015, 11:36 PM
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Midnight GFS flattens the storm, an initial burst of snow gets into Southern Ontario bringing 2-6cm but then that's it. Cold air floods in and we are back at minus 15 to minus 20 for daytime highs on Mon.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Feb 19 2015, 08:27 AM
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Yup, not looking good after the overnight runs.
We'll see what today and tonights runs bring. Models have largely stunk this year so nothing is set in stone yet.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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puttin
post Feb 19 2015, 09:32 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 19 2015, 08:27 AM) *
Yup, not looking good after the overnight runs.
We'll see what today and tonights runs bring. Models have largely stunk this year so nothing is set in stone yet.


Quote from Ontario Storm Prediction Centre as of this morning..... 5-10 would be fine for me if that's all we get...


Outlook for Saturday… There is some potential for a significant snowfall across Southern Ontario Saturday into Sunday, as a number of the computer models track a low pressure area from Texas just south of Lakes Erie and Ontario into New England. Confidence in the track and strength of this system is increasing. Impact on transportation is quite possible due to low visibility and accumulating snow on untreated roads.

OSPC
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Feb 19 2015, 01:13 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Feb 18 2015, 04:15 PM) *
I just shoveled my driveway and watched about 200 geese flying North! I hope they know something!

They are flying to check out the cold snowy winter
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plowguy
post Feb 19 2015, 03:23 PM
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QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Feb 19 2015, 01:13 PM) *
They are flying to check out the cold snowy winter

Yes I'm sure this winter for sure.

Anyone have any snowfall thoughts for this weekend event. I'm kinda hoping for less than 10 cms...
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plowguy
post Feb 19 2015, 03:38 PM
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EC has 2-4 cms Fri nigh,t snow Sat, and 60% chance of snow for Sun??? Is this thing this big??? Maybe more again on Tuesday night.
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snowgeek93
post Feb 19 2015, 04:04 PM
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Looks like a much weaker event now, maybe even a bit of a miss for us?


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 57.0cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 40
Days with Snow Cover: 30

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 9.0cm (38.9cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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plowguy
post Feb 19 2015, 05:39 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 19 2015, 04:04 PM) *
Looks like a much weaker event now, maybe even a bit of a miss for us?

I like what your saying...TWN just put me upto 10-15 cms. If this is the weaker version, yikes
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MrMusic
post Feb 19 2015, 07:31 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Feb 19 2015, 05:39 PM) *
I like what your saying...TWN just put me upto 10-15 cms. If this is the weaker version, yikes


thats the CMC model they're using. Shows a pretty decent front end dump of snow. Not much support though.
Models have trended weak and south.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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plowguy
post Feb 19 2015, 08:21 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 19 2015, 07:31 PM) *
thats the CMC model they're using. Shows a pretty decent front end dump of snow. Not much support though.
Models have trended weak and south.

Thanks! My crews could use a break. We got 6cms last evening which was very unexpected.
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