Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

1499 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

jdrenken
Posted on: May 25 2018, 08:11 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 25 2018, 12:44 AM) *
May and June are my favorite months of the year for weather. Summer-like warmth is really starting to take over, but the jet stream hasn't weakened enough to balance it out. I love looking at GFS runs to see what kind of nonsense it puts out.

Like tonights run. 120 degrees in Oklahoma would shatter their all-time record of 113.



Then you also have something like this, which would rank it among the top outbreaks for coverage of extreme parameters. Less intense but still ridiculous parameters rotate around the meandering southern ridge/heat dome, but not many storms pop due to an intense cap/EML.

For those who don't know how EHI works, values between 1-3 signify significant tornadoes are possible (assuming there's a supercell). You're seeing widespread 10+ here.



Twitter thread via Maue talking about the GFS being...the GFS.

A look at the major indices and their impacts via Habbyhints!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2329007 · Replies: · Views: 10,176

jdrenken
Posted on: May 15 2018, 02:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(stretchct @ May 15 2018, 01:36 PM) *
From Uptons Discussion

CODE


The remnant outflow boundary from earlier, previously near the
OH/PA border and a leading short wave have now moved into
central NY/PA, where strengthening of the ongoing convection is
underway.

Most significantly, per 12Z soundings across western PA and NY
show an EML, with mid-level lapse rates according to sounding
climatology near the climatological maximum for this time of
year. Given strong west-northwest deep layer flow, these lapse
rates will advect eastward, creating an environment not often
seen in the Northeast, particularly this early in the convective
season.
As diurnal heating occurs, low-level lapse rates will
steepen in concert.

Initially, expect there to be potential for supercells capable
of producing large hail and damaging winds, as well as the risk
of an isolated tornado. With time, nearly all hi-
res/deterministic models suggest convective activity
consolidates into an MCS, with damaging wind as the primary
threat as it moves into the area. Any discrete cells or QLCS
vortices will maintain the risk of hail and/or isolated
tornadoes.



EML?


Elevated mixed layer
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328230 · Replies: · Views: 21,039

jdrenken
Posted on: May 7 2018, 06:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


SPC has a 'Slight' for Day 3...by Broyles... blink.gif

Attached Image


Attached Image


CODE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Mon May 07 2018

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND PARTS OF ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms associated with severe hail and isolated
wind damage will be possible across parts of the mid Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance
eastward across Iowa and Missouri with a corridor of maximized
low-level moisture in place ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints
may be able to reach the low to mid 60s F across parts of the mid
Mississippi Valley by afternoon. If this occurs, then pockets of
moderate instability could develop in areas that warm sufficiently.
The increasing instability combined with enhanced low-level
convergence along and ahead of the front should result in scattered
thunderstorm development from west of the Chicago area southward to
around St Louis. This convection is forecast to move eastward across
the slight risk area during the late afternoon and early evening.
The NAM appears to be aggressive with moisture and instability.
Taking this into account would yield MLCAPE values in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range across western Illinois by late Wednesday afternoon.
This combined with 25 to 35 kt of 0-6 km shear and steep low-level
lapse rates could be enough for multicells associated with isolated
wind damage. Severe hail may also occur especially if moderate
instability can be realized across the slight risk area.

..Broyles.. 05/07/2018
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2327630 · Replies: · Views: 7,928

jdrenken
Posted on: May 6 2018, 09:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Winner winner chicken dinner!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2327621 · Replies: · Views: 7,928

jdrenken
Posted on: May 5 2018, 06:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 4 2018, 06:59 PM) *
The last few days have sucked. My apartment complex just found out recently that the AC broke while we were in the heating season, and it'll be another 11 days before it's fixed. It's been in the 80's for the past few days, and it takes a while for the daytime warmth to leave the apartment overnight. Squall just came through though, went from around 75 to 65. Feels so much better.

So glad that I'm fortunate enough that not having AC from April-September isn't something I'm used to.


I was living in a split level duplex during the 2012 summer and our ac went out. The wait time was just as bad because the demand was unreal for ac units that kept failing around Central MO. So, that whole summer I took an old comforter to create a wall on the entrance landing. The ONLY time we went upstairs is to take late night showers and making meals with limited stove usage.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327570 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: May 5 2018, 05:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


It's official! The SOI research has been accepted for #NWAS18 annual meeting!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327569 · Replies: · Views: 543,206

jdrenken
Posted on: May 4 2018, 06:53 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 3 2018, 03:50 PM) *
This looks beautiful



GFS has a ridiculous June-like pattern setup. Lots of moisture in place going into MJO phase 2, which looks to happen sometime around May 16. Been talking about this time period for over a week now.




GFS and GEFS are picking up on a large eastern ridge, Pacific NW trough.




Nice!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327491 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: May 3 2018, 09:50 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


If only there was some type of long range forecasting ability to foretell this pattern. wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2327416 · Replies: · Views: 6,307

jdrenken
Posted on: May 3 2018, 09:44 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 2 2018, 09:52 AM) *
Don't want to have May start like April, bit of history from ILX
[attachment=355778:FB_IMG_1...72490094.jpg]


Not that long ago...


Phenomenal May Snowfall Wunderground article.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327414 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: May 1 2018, 07:11 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 29 2018, 04:37 PM) *
Current Upper Level pattern. Big ridge in the Atlantic.

Interesting the NAO is positive. Can someone tell me again why it would be positive with a big ridge in the Atlantic?

I think I remember this indicator is more for Greenland blocking rather than full north Atlantic? Or maybe this ridge axis is too far East for it to show as a negative NAO?

Another look and the telliconnections forecasts.


The ridge doesn't extend far enough North to be in your "stereotypical" -NAO set up. The ESRL calculates NAO via (35-45N, 70W-10W) - (55-70N, 70W-10W) while the cpc utilizes a method that changes with each season.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327199 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 26 2018, 11:54 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 25 2018, 05:04 PM) *
BSR CONUS correlation overlay with all the systems worth watching through mid-month-ish. May 2, May 5, May 11, May 15-18 are dates of interest. Emphasis on May 15-18 if MJO makes it to phase 2.






Scott Sabol was on this utilizing the SOI also.

https://twitter.com/ScottSabolFOX8/status/989489251543863299

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327033 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 25 2018, 07:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 15 2018, 06:11 PM) *
First time poster checking in. Under my first TOR warning of the season. Summit, Stark, and Portage counties in NE Ohio. I did not expect to get anything out of this system, although the HRRR has been pretty solid on selling this line coming through with the low for a day now. Looks like spin-ups at worst, but perhaps a harbinger of a more interesting season than the past several around here!

Radar at around the time of issuance. Crappy NEXRAD quality but you can see the notches.


Welcome to the forum! Looking forward to your contributions! Great group of guys here in the severe threads to learn from.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326992 · Replies: · Views: 14,219

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 12:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 16 2018, 01:52 PM) *
My first time mentioning the possibility for a severe weather/tornado outbreak in the April 10-12 timeframe was back on March 25, a full 2 weeks and 4 or 5 days before the April 13-15 tornado outbreak. It was a slam dunk of signs pointing to this event... the MJO, SOI, BSR, EAR, and RRWT all supported a big system pushing through in the same time frame.

My wording was pretty strong regarding the tornado potential, which I believe was justified, but when it came to the details of the event, it was pretty underwhelming due to VBV (veer-back-veer, in which a layer of the atmosphere has winds turning clockwise with height which destroys rotating updrafts, thus discouraging supercells and tornadoes). That was just one of the things that could go wrong when using organic signals to forecast a system well in advance, so that was unfortunate for the forecast. Still though, there've been 52 tornado reports over the 3 day span, and with NWS offices still out there surveying damage, that number will likely increase further.

Over the 3 days, there were 178 tornado warnings and 467 severe thunderstorm warnings, and somewhere around 750 reports of severe weather.



Great job! Just remember my favorite catch phrase!
QUOTE
We nail the pattern, specifics come later!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326769 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 2 2018, 10:12 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Shipmate in Ronkonhoma reported ~4" at 8:35am.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324196 · Replies: · Views: 48,903

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 29 2018, 07:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


We have seen on numerous occasions a pump fake in regards to the +PNA. Apply my rule for reading the telly graphics...

QUOTE
Forecast high, verification low. Forecast low, verification high


Euro


GFS

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323355 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 09:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Add the latest GWO forecast drop to supporting severe weather.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323344 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 01:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Gary Lezak finally got the LRC, or Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, published. Have a gander.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323317 · Replies: · Views: 543,206

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 11:30 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


CPC temp hazards...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323308 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 09:43 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MotownWX @ Mar 28 2018, 08:23 AM) *
Yeah, NOAA might want to rethink this...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ead14/index.php

All that orange shading north of the Mason-Dixon line needs to be replaced with blue, asap.


They usually send out an update on the first of the month.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323297 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 09:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 26 2018, 12:09 PM) *
Great thread & read under this.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/978068764997685250

[attachment=354546:tweet21.jpg]
Ryan: The physical mechanisms put forth in this Washington Post article are hand "wavy" but involve changes to the jet stream based upon a warm Arctic. I'm leaning toward the -NAO & Strat Warming as more plausible explanation.

Judah: Consistent with our recent paper. The link between a warm Arctic and severe winter weather is strongest when Arctic warmth leads by days to weeks.

Ryan: So far in my data analysis and evaluation of your recent paper & others, I'm hypothesizing that the positive Arctic T anomalies are a proxy for midlatitude pattern shifts driven by tropical forcing e.g. upper-level Rossby wave dispersion. More plausible than other direction.

Judah: I would say that your opinion is closer to the climate community consensus than my own ideas. But I remain steadfast that this idea of the tropics as the sole/dominant driver of our weather is neither supported by the observations or the models.

Ryan: Hmmm, that would completely discount the role of the Pacific in our weather including the El Nino teleconnections manifested via the PNA. When discussing modulation of midlat storm tracks, the physical mechanisms are well established e.g. PNA, MJO.

Judah: And BTW you listed the sudden stratospheric warming, -NAO as the reasons for the nor'easters. Those are both been shown to be forced by El Nino, a little inconvenient given that we had a La Nina this winter and possibly the most extreme SSW.

Ryan: I meant El Nino as a catch all for tropical convective forcing, better to say ENSO. I'm just struggling to understand how that relative surface warmth in the Arctic physically modulated East Coast cyclogenesis.
Upper level forcing e.g. SSW makes more sense.

Jase: The reanalysis maps for the first 22 days or so of March show all the hallmarks of -NAO... strong positive 500 mb Z/MSLP anomalies over Greenland indicative of the blocking high, weak polar jet over N Atlantic. 850 T anomaly bullseye just south of Greenland

Ryan: Exactly. Synopticians are worth keeping around. :-)

Ian: It takes time for the effects of a SSW event/PV disruption to propagate down from the stratosphere to troposphere. Sometimes a few weeks. At least thatís how I understand it as a non-MET.


That was classic! I think Cohen was so offended that he said people believe that the tropics are the ONLY impact for our weather when the majority of the community doesn't feel that way.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323223 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 11:30 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


FYI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323186 · Replies: · Views: 2,059

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 11:29 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


FYI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323185 · Replies: · Views: 12,292

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 11:28 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


FYI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323184 · Replies: · Views: 48,903

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 11:28 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


FYI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323183 · Replies: · Views: 21,774

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 25 2018, 09:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,575
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 25 2018, 09:13 PM) *
Nice. And here's the corresponding 500mb heights.



The SOI has been highly variable over the past 2 weeks which implies unsettled weather 20 days from the date.



~43pt drop over 3 days in the same time line as the BSR...look out.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323163 · Replies: · Views: 74,360

1499 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

New Posts  New Replies
No New Posts  No New Replies
Hot topic  Hot Topic (New)
No new  Hot Topic (No New)
Poll  Poll (New)
No new votes  Poll (No New)
Closed  Locked Topic
Moved  Moved Topic
 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 27th May 2018 - 10:51 AM