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> Hurricane Jose, 9/17 5PM EDT CAT 1 - 90 MPH - 967mb - Movement: N @ 9mph
stretchct
post Today, 09:01 AM
Post #1141




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,465
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Saw my first wind over 9mph on Darth Vader since Aug 4. Crazy how calm its been.

Low level clouds zooming by, some sprinkles on the way in. Local WU station nearest me in New Haven now is showing 20mph winds. Local buoy is reporting 2kts.

Some other buoys
44025 - 30 NM south of Islip is 25kts gusting to 31kts, 12 ft waves
44091 - Barnegat is reporting 10.8 ft waves
44066 - Texas Tower is reporting 29kt winds with 35kt gusts. 20.7ft waves and water temp of 70.2
ACYN4 has water temp of 72
BRND1 - Brandywind shoals with 28kts gusting to 31.1
44009 - Delaware Bay reporting 31.1kts gusting to 38.9kts, 15.4ft waves and water temp of 71
44088 - VA Beach offshore 17.4ft waves, water temp 70.
CBBv2 - Chesapeake Bay Bridge 27kts gusting to 33kts, water temp 74.7
41062 - Hatteras Bay 31.1kts gusting to 39 (rising pressure). Peaked at 33kts sustained and 40.8kts gusts

For tracking the center purposes, try this tool. ADT Position loop


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Today, 09:13 AM
Post #1142




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,465
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Ship obs
Attached Image


This post has been edited by stretchct: Today, 09:15 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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mtksurfer
post Today, 09:38 AM
Post #1143




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 803
Joined: 2-March 10
From: Long Island
Member No.: 22,192





QUOTE(stretchct @ Sep 19 2017, 10:13 AM) *
Ship obs
Attached Image



Looks to have jogged NW a bit. when is it going to start heading east? I thought it would have done so already.


--------------------
“All of us have in our veins the exact same percentage of salt in our blood that exists in the ocean, and, therefore, we have salt in our blood, in our sweat, in our tears. We are tied to the ocean. And when we go back to the sea - whether it is to sail or to watch it - we are going back from whence we came.”

- John F. Kennedy
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stretchct
post Today, 11:29 AM
Post #1144




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,465
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Totally expecting a downgrade. Totally wrong.

I'm adding color to the things I find interesting in the discussion.
QUOTE
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Jose's overall structure and wind
field have changed little since the previous advisory. Although the
highest 700-mb flight-level wind and SFMR surface winds reported by
the aircraft were 66 kt and 57 kt, respectively, these winds were
observed in areas of little or no convection. Given the large size
of Jose's wind field, it unlikely that the aircraft sampled the
strongest winds, and the initial intensity is held at 65 kt
. The
aircraft also measured a central pressure of 976 mb, indicating that
Jose remains a strong cyclone.

The low-level center has been wobbling around inside the larger
inner-core circulation, resulting in a forward motion a little west
of due north or 350/06 kt
. Overall there is no significant change to
the previous track forecast. The global and regional models remain
in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning toward the
northeast and east over the next couple days as it moves around a
ridge over the western Atlantic. On days 3-5, the models agree on a
high-latitude ridge building to the north of the cyclone, forcing
Jose to move slowly or drift southward over the North Atlantic. The
official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and
lies close to a blend of the various consensus models.

Since the previous advisory, shallow convection has been increasing
in both depth and areal coverage in the southeastern semicircle,
while deeper convection has remained over the northwestern
semicircle. The recent formation of convection to the southeast is
beginning to give Jose the appearance of developing a large
truck-tire eye with a diameter of approximately 100 nmi. Such eye
patterns typically indicate a fairly stable cyclone that doesn't
weaken or weakens only slowly. Although the center of Jose will be
moving over 21C SSTs by 36-48 h, a significant portion of the large
circulation will still be situated over water south of the Gulf
Stream that is positioned along 40N latitude, which will maintain a
southerly feed of warm, moist, unstable air into and north of the
center.
Given the combination of the aforementioned favorable
thermodynamic conditions and only modest vertical wind shear of
15-20 kt, the intensity forecast remains basically unchanged from
the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA
consensus models.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Today, 11:33 AM
Post #1145




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,465
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Attached Image
A lot of noise as to whether Jose looks tropical.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Today, 11:33 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Today, 11:35 AM
Post #1146




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,465
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Rainbow version


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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+Quote Post
Qdeathstar
post Today, 11:49 AM
Post #1147




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 551
Joined: 30-September 15
Member No.: 30,610





Looking as healthy as it has in a while...


--------------------
Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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stretchct
post Today, 11:54 AM
Post #1148




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,465
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





I couldn't get the sectors lined up right in the Goes 16 page. Perhaps MJ will stick his head in here and provide a prettier picture.



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
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