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> Feb. 8-Feb.10 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range (8-15 days out)
CentralIllinois
post Jan 31 2014, 07:31 PM
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two storms for some next week? pretty good model consensus that somewhere in the midwest will be hit by this system

12z GFS
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--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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WestLafayette62
post Jan 31 2014, 08:29 PM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Jan 31 2014, 07:31 PM) *
two storms for some next week? pretty good model consensus that somewhere in the midwest will be hit by this system

12z GFS

Nice. Lucky OV/Midwest. Love the active pattern.


--------------------
If I had 1 wish, I'd wish for more wishes. And Tons of snow.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 31 2014, 08:29 PM
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well at least we're starting this one off with 0 consensus...i think its better off that way

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 31 2014, 08:30 PM
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WestLafayette62
post Jan 31 2014, 08:30 PM
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I think yesterday this system was off the east coast. Quite the movement in one day.


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If I had 1 wish, I'd wish for more wishes. And Tons of snow.
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CentralIllinois
post Feb 1 2014, 12:29 AM
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00z GFS
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--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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HassayWx2306
post Feb 1 2014, 02:00 AM
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so between 6 inches of snow and 65 degrees is basically the outline so far? laugh.gif
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 1 2014, 08:12 AM
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Seems like this one is shaping up to be a widespread event with relatively high ratios ... hopefully I get back from Atlanta before it moves in!


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 1 2014, 09:38 AM
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personally, this one has western GLC all over it.

QUOTE
Henry Margusity Fan Club
Model battle starts with the 9th storm. GFS has Midwest major snowstorm. ECMWF is back with the 984 low on the coast. NAO says NO!
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cary67
post Feb 1 2014, 10:31 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 1 2014, 08:38 AM) *
personally, this one has western GLC all over it.

Yeah have the feeling I have been just a little too far NW for the current system and probably the Feb.4-5 one also. This one will go right over me for rain wink.gif
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CentralIllinois
post Feb 1 2014, 02:01 PM
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12z GFS pretty wild how it sets this system up...
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--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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brentmpugh
post Feb 1 2014, 02:27 PM
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WTF!!


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CentralIllinois
post Feb 1 2014, 02:27 PM
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QUOTE(brentmpugh @ Feb 1 2014, 01:27 PM) *
WTF!!


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laugh.gif


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Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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JymGanahlRocks
post Feb 1 2014, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(brentmpugh @ Feb 1 2014, 02:27 PM) *
WTF!!


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laugh.gif - Occluded & completely bombed out, love it...Yeah right laugh.gif
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cary67
post Feb 1 2014, 03:43 PM
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QUOTE(brentmpugh @ Feb 1 2014, 01:27 PM) *
WTF!!


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Ahh...the golden path.
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CentralIllinois
post Feb 1 2014, 04:01 PM
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ILX likes the chance of snow with this one

QUOTE
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

Focus is on the next Arctic surge moving in later on Wednesday in
the wake of Tuesday`s storm and its affect on our temperatures for
the remainder of the forecast period, and yet another threat for a
snow system late in the period. Pattern over the lower 48 will feature
more of the same, a split flow with the stronger northern stream in
position to supply cold air to the region, while a rather active
subtropical jet brings in Pacific energy which will interact with the
low level baroclinic zone well to our south. This will induce another
wave of low pressure towards the end of the week with a renewed threat
for snow starting late Friday into Saturday. With a fairly strong
confluent flow situated to our north, no place for the southern stream
energy to go but well to our south, similar to the track the Tuesday
Tuesday night storm system will travel. Subzero temps likely across
at least the north Wed and Thu nights, with daytime highs by Thu and
Friday in the single digits to teens.


--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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cary67
post Feb 1 2014, 04:52 PM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Feb 1 2014, 03:01 PM) *
ILX likes the chance of snow with this one

Hmm... interesting analysis I guess I have to say next already with this system too.. wink.gif
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Chambana
post Feb 1 2014, 05:10 PM
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ILX took the words right out of my mouth, this storm modeled as of now, looks to take a similar path to Tuesdays storm. ILX, is taking the bait early huh tongue.gif
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Louieloy102
post Feb 1 2014, 05:31 PM
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18Z snows:

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CentralIllinois
post Feb 1 2014, 05:34 PM
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LSX thinking the same way ILX is.....

QUOTE
Another storm system will then affect our region for later on Friday
and into Saturday, with an initial impulse slated for Friday
afternoon and into Friday night, and depending on how much the
system matures, another round looks possible into Saturday and
Saturday night for what could be a prolonged winter event.
Pcpn-types look to be primarily snow again, but some mix possible
for areas in SE MO and S IL.

TES

&&


--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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CIWeather
post Feb 1 2014, 10:27 PM
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QUOTE(Chambana @ Feb 1 2014, 04:10 PM) *
ILX took the words right out of my mouth, this storm modeled as of now, looks to take a similar path to Tuesdays storm. ILX, is taking the bait early huh tongue.gif


That's not normal ILX behavior laugh.gif

This post has been edited by CIWeather: Feb 1 2014, 10:27 PM


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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