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> July 23-29 Rockies/Plains/MW/GL Severe Weather
joseph507123
post Jul 23 2018, 11:10 PM
Post #1




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There's a system moving in from the west today.

Tomorrow
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Wednesday (could be upgrade)
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This post has been edited by joseph507123: Jul 29 2018, 07:06 AM


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 14

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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joseph507123
post Jul 24 2018, 01:21 PM
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Tomorrow upgraded to slight risk.
Attached Image


NAM likes the idea of strong storms in south MN.


Plenty of shear. The main question will be if there's clearing in the morning and afternoon.


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 14

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 26 2018, 03:18 PM
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Now expired MCD for Northern Ohio:



CLE not overly enthused since dewpoints are mixing out. All the best storms are in the middle of the lake. The HRRR says wait until this evening for better inland coverage. There seems to be a slight uptick in storm coverage as of 4 PM.
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 26 2018, 03:38 PM
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Watch probability dropped to 20% as soon as I post that. dry.gif



Looking forward to a few boomers regardless.
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 26 2018, 04:42 PM
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Decent looking storm to the north of Mentor coming on shore:

Attached Image


QUOTE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GEAUGA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT.

* AT 522 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LAKELINE, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLOWICK, MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

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FireworkWX03
post Jul 26 2018, 05:58 PM
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Today is overperforming. 4 hail reports and 13 wind reports in Michigan and Ohio so far.

Attached Image

QUOTE
2230 UNK SANDUSKY ERIE OH 4146 8271 SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN SANDUSKY. ROOF OFF OF A BUILDING AND POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SOME OF THE OLDER BUILDINGS. (CLE)


Might have been wise to go with a watch box after all.
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 26 2018, 08:25 PM
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Well, overperforming might have been too strong a word as the line never really congealed inland as was modeled. The Central Highlands have gotten repeated severe warnings.

Top tier for 2018, however! rolleyes.gif

Will be watching the remaining warm season nonetheless.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jul 27 2018, 12:22 PM
Post #8







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Moderate risk added for parts of CO/KS/NE.
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QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN KS AND
SMALL PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NE...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening
across the central High Plains with very large hail, intense wind
gusts, and a few tornadoes possible. Strong to isolated severe
storms are anticipated across parts of the Northeast into early
evening, with risks for hail and damaging winds.

...Central High Plains...
Scattered storms are expected to form over the Laramie and Front
Ranges during the mid to late afternoon, with ongoing convection
near the NE/CO border area also likely to increase and redevelop
upshear through the afternoon. While boundary-layer moisture will
not be particularly rich with surface dew points in the mid 50s to
lower 60s, the eastern periphery of the elevated mixed layer will
support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level
veering with height beneath strong mid/upper-level speed shear will
favor rather large effective shear magnitudes around 50-55 kt. This
should yield a few supercells, a couple of which may be intense and
long-track to the southeast, mainly between 3-7 pm MDT. Very large
hail and tornadoes will be most likely during this time frame.

Storm-scale mergers/consolidation will likely yield an MCS
developing near the CO/KS border area and moving south-southeast
across western KS in the evening, eventually weakening in western OK
to the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity later tonight. The risk for
severe wind gusts will be greatest over western KS where bowing
structures in the forward-propagating MCS are anticipated. The lack
of even larger MUCAPE/DCAPE may limit the severe wind gust threat to
some extent, but the highly consistent CAM and non-CAM guidance
signal warrants sufficient confidence for a spatially confined
Moderate risk.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jul 27 2018, 02:13 PM
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Tornado watch out for moderate risk area. Wind and hail threat are higher though with the threat of 80mph winds. Not sure when the last time winds were listed that high on a watch.

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QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
105 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Northwest Kansas
Southwest Nebraska
Southeast Wyoming

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until
900 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...Severe storms are anticipated in multiple regimes across
the central High Plains into mid-evening. Initial supercells should
form near the Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas border area, as well as
along the higher terrain near the I-25 corridor. With time, this
activity should merge into a southeast-moving cluster with embedded
supercell and bowing structures.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Cheyenne WY to
65 miles south of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jul 27 2018, 09:15 PM
Post #10







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Well appears to be another moderate risk that busted badly.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jul 28 2018, 11:44 AM
Post #11







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SPC trying their luck again. Just introduced an enhanced area basically in the same area as yesterday's enhanced/moderate.

This post has been edited by snowlover2: Jul 28 2018, 11:48 AM
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jul 31 2018, 07:43 PM
Post #12







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Tornado on the ground near Urbana Ohio.

QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Champaign County in west central Ohio...

* Until 900 PM EDT.

* At 837 PM EDT, radar indicated that a tornado-producing storm was
located over Urbana, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado just northwest of
Urbana around 933 pm EDT.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Urbana, Cable, Mingo and Kennard.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 31 2018, 07:47 PM
Post #13




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 31 2018, 08:43 PM) *
Tornado on the ground near Urbana Ohio.

Not surprised. Nice directional shear and instability but weak low-level speed shear. Low-level speed shear has increased in the past few hours though.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 31 2018, 07:59 PM
Post #14




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ILN sounding is within the warm sector. Tornado happened where the surface winds are southeasterly and LCL is even lower



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 31 2018, 08:00 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jul 31 2018, 08:06 PM
Post #15







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New tornado warning.

QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
904 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Champaign County in west central Ohio...
Southeastern Logan County in west central Ohio...

* Until 930 PM EDT.

* At 904 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near West Liberty, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
West Liberty, North Lewisburg, Valley Hi, Mingo, Pickrelltown,
Kennard, Middleburg, Cable and East Liberty.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 31 2018, 09:44 PM
Post #16




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Still tornado warned. Very far away from radars but inflow has strengthened, has more of a broad supercell look right now. The circulation is just west of Marion.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jul 31 2018, 09:54 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 31 2018, 10:44 PM) *
Still tornado warned. Very far away from radars but inflow has strengthened, has more of a broad supercell look right now. The circulation is just west of Marion.

Pretty impressive how long it's been tornado warned.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 31 2018, 10:18 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 31 2018, 10:54 PM) *
Pretty impressive how long it's been tornado warned.

A friend was contemplating chasing today. I'm sure it would've been worth it if you had the patience. Though there are no tornado reports yet, I bet you'd see some interesting things. Also might've gotten to see some sweet clouds since there were intermittent breaks in clouds.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jul 31 2018, 10:23 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 31 2018, 11:18 PM) *
A friend was contemplating chasing today. I'm sure it would've been worth it if you had the patience. Though there are no tornado reports yet, I bet you'd see some interesting things. Also might've gotten to see some sweet clouds since there were intermittent breaks in clouds.

WHIO channel 7 showed pictures they got in from viewers around Urbana of a funnel cloud that was very close if not touching the ground.
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 31 2018, 10:51 PM
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Tornado Warning in SE Michigan at this late hour. Monroe County until 12:30.

Another cluster of storms in the Central Highlands riding the warm front that has a brief opportunity for a spinup.
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